Hypothesis: Peak UVA

[Anonymous]

Sorry, that link didn't go thru. Here's another article. https://news.virginia.edu/content/uva-releases-admissions-decisions-and-uva22-begins-trending-grounds

[Anonymous]

Good thread. Don't mind the haters who diss you for providing a thread with thought and content while they themselves add nothing.

How is the higher ed bubble going to burst?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:UVa undergrad is actually not that large compared to places like Berkeley, UCLA, and Michigan which are its public state university peers.

This is true. UCLA is 45K students, 39K are undergrad. UVA is only 16K undergrad

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You are a freak.

I thought it was interesting. No need to be nasty.

[Anonymous]

OK Maryland booster, or UVA hater, here we go.

Anonymous wrote:Here are my supporting arguments:

1. After many years of large increases in the number of apps, 2018 yielded just 423 more than 2017, a paltry number.

UVA's applications are up 27% over the last three years. More than 37,000 applications were received. https://news.virginia.edu/content/uva-tops-admission-application-record-third-straight-year Acceptances for EA and RD reached a new low of 26.7%

2. There are only 40-50K high school students in the country who score 33 or above on the ACT and/or 1450 and above on the SAT. Competition for those students is more fierce now than ever before, with so many schools offering generous merit aid, both public and private. UVA will face increasing competition for its OOS portion of these students, even in state kids at this level will have options they never previously had.

With private institutions' costs continuing to rise, there will be only more in-state applications to UVA for the 58% in-state seats. You are forgetting the applications that come in from 147 international countries. We are just beginning to see what will be an avalanche of international students. Over 1 million international students came to the USA to study this year.


3. Population growth in Virginia is not what it once was, it has become a net exporter of people to other states.

Tysons is booming. Amazon may be coming. Population growth is still upward. 1/4 of UVA's accepted in-state students come from FCPS (which includes TJ). NoVA is exploding. Anyhow, even if it were true that NOVA applications were to decline, it's irrelevant because there will always be in-state students who want those UVA seats. UVVA can also decide it will take MORE OSS and international students.

4. Nationally the number of high school students is expected to decline in over the coming years.

But the internationals are flooding in. Students are now routinely sending out more than 15 college applications. That will just continue to grow as the stakes get higher.

5. UVA is not the bargain it once was for OOS students. For full pay OOS its costs are very similar to an Ivy or other higher ranked universities.

It's $16,781K for tuition. How can you beat that? Students turn town premiere tech schools and Ivies because their parents can't afford $70K a year in after tax dollars. The number of donut hole families are increasing as well.

6. As the minority population grows, high school students will be less interested in "Mr. Jefferson" and the "Charlottesville air" as the Fiske guide puts it.

Well, that was bigoted. No one purchases the Fiske guide anymore. Mr. Fiske is quite old and happy at the Hoover Institute. He also happened to mention those qualities as positives. Many UVA and OOS students want UVA because it is smaller undergrad population than UCLA and Berkeley.

7. UVA has been a hot school since at least the nineties. Nothing lasts forever. It will never reach the 110k application mark of a UCLA. Popularity waxes and wanes: look at the fortunes of Columbia, BU and BC over the decades or Dartmouth in the other direction.

UCLA has 45,000 students. California is destroying itself by not limiting immigration. The applications will continue to rise at UCLA and Berkeley and the California State Universities and the Cal States. Now that OOS and internationals have only 20% of the slots out there, the competition will become even more fierce. The Chines, in particular, are enamored with UCLA and Berkeley. A friend in the consulting business has parents pay him $100K to get their child ready for a UCLA application. UVA has only 16,000 undergrads so attracts a different student but is still rated No. 1, 2, or 3 with UCLA and Berkeley but always ahead of Michigan for top public university in the USA. OOS students prefer it to UCLA and UVA because the undergrad size is half the size of UCLA and Berkeley and the chance of getting in is easier due to UVA's 2/3 rule.
https://news.virginia.edu/content/us-news-lists-uva-among-top-three-public-universities-27th-straight-year

8. And here is my hope: that as the higher ed bubble continues to burst, it will affect all schools except perhaps HYPSM, and that in the AI driven job apocalypse that is supposedly coming, those who do go to college will decide they want an education on a human scale and realize that a large, research university is not the best place for an undergraduate education.

I don't think there will be a burst. I'm not saying that it shouldn't. I'm appalled at how difficult and stressful things have become for our nation's high school students. But so long as the ratings systems make money for their creators, and so long as people pay attention to these ratings systems, the number of applications will continue to increase from USA and OOS and International students. It's not right, but that's the way the statistics line up.

So to summarize, my theory is that UVA has reached peak apps and selectivity. Time will tell.

Just incorrect. It had peak applications and lowest selectivity ratings ever this year. Number of AA, URM and low income applications are up as well. 147 countries send their students to UVA.

I do think it is insane that a public high school student has to have a 4.47, 12 AP courses, a perfect ACT or near perfect SAT, perfect SAT subject matter tests and run corporate America at age 17 to get in (with no hooks). I am by no way justifying the madness This insanity started when USN@WR started the rankings wars Now everyone wants to get into the wars because they are money makers. I'm sure you've all seen how absurd the rankings are ("best food") and now jokers are trying to rank things as obscure as world status. And parents pay attention. That isn't going to stop. Donut hole families who cannot afford the $65-$81K a year to send their kids to HYP will continue to flood the state-sponsored universities. Perhaps parents in Virginia will get the General Assembly to do what California did and increase the number of seats at UVA to 80%. Meanwhile, UVA wants to compete as a world-class university so it brings in the best and brightest across the land and the world. You can't be everything for everyone. Bills are introduced every year into the VA General Assembly to allocate more seats for Virginians or more seats for FCPS but those bills go nowhere. It will be interesting to watch what happens now that the UC system is capping OOS and international at 20%.

[Anonymous]

OP here. For the record, I'm neither a UVA hater nor a MD booster. I'm a Virginian whose class of 2018 dd had the stats to attend both UVA and William and Mary. I was open to both schools, but I admit I did suggest to her that W&M was a better choice for the undergraduate student of the humanities and pure sciences, if only because of it's human scale and the close contact with the faculty that that provides. She chose W&M. If she had chosen UVA, I would have been fine with that since her probable major is an unusual one with a small, excellent department at UVA. Just guiding her through the process was fascinating, tho stressful. I learned a lot and hence this thread.

It is possible, certainly, that an avalanche of international students will enable UVA to continue to march ahead. I'm skeptical, however. The number of international students in the US has fallen with the advent of the Trump administration. Further, why wouldn't the political pressures as you cite in CA also be applicable in VA if UVA were to try to drastically increase it's number of full pay international students?

The point of the bell curve is that there are only so many students of exceptional ability. These students drive selectivity. There is more competition for them than ever before, both among publics and privates. If UVA manages to increase it's instate apps, it will not be among those highly talented students. They already go to UVA at what I think will be seen to be a maximum rate. Anecdotally, I personally know two students who graduated from FCPS recently with stats at the higher end of the UVA range. One went to BC, another to Tulane, both with significant merit aid. This is the new reality I'm talking about -- it affects even in state students.

People seem to think that there is an endless supply out there somewhere (China) of brilliant kids who will push American schools to greater and greater glory. I just don't think that's true and I don't see it happening.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here. For the record, I'm neither a UVA hater nor a MD booster. I'm a Virginian whose class of 2018 dd had the stats to attend both UVA and William and Mary. I was open to both schools, but I admit I did suggest to her that W&M was a better choice for the undergraduate student of the humanities and pure sciences, if only because of it's human scale and the close contact with the faculty that that provides. She chose W&M. If she had chosen UVA, I would have been fine with that since her probable major is an unusual one with a small, excellent department at UVA. Just guiding her through the process was fascinating, tho stressful. I learned a lot and hence this thread.

It is possible, certainly, that an avalanche of international students will enable UVA to continue to march ahead. I'm skeptical, however. The number of international students in the US has fallen with the advent of the Trump administration. Further, why wouldn't the political pressures as you cite in CA also be applicable in VA if UVA were to try to drastically increase it's number of full pay international students?

The point of the bell curve is that there are only so many students of exceptional ability. These students drive selectivity. There is more competition for them than ever before, both among publics and privates. If UVA manages to increase it's instate apps, it will not be among those highly talented students. They already go to UVA at what I think will be seen to be a maximum rate. Anecdotally, I personally know two students who graduated from FCPS recently with stats at the higher end of the UVA range. One went to BC, another to Tulane, both with significant merit aid. This is the new reality I'm talking about -- it affects even in state students.

People seem to think that there is an endless supply out there somewhere (China) of brilliant kids who will push American schools to greater and greater glory. I just don't think that's true and I don't see it happening.

cite?

[Anonymous]

I'm not sure that they are going to UVA at a maximum rate. How many VA resident kids attend Duke, Emory, Davidson, Vanderbilt, UNC, etc. Privates in the 10-40 range. Many of them have ACT 34+ and are in the donut hole. There is very limited merit aid at this schools. In the future their options are scaling down to the privates ranked 50+ looking for merit, or instate. This is not an argument against W&M, it would help both. As well as UMD and other highly regarded state flagships.

[Anonymous]

Good thread. Don't mind the haters who diss you for providing a thread with thought and content while they themselves add nothing.

How is the higher ed bubble going to burst?

Thank you. By bubble I mean an unsustainable increase in the costs and numbers of kids going to college. Probably too many go as it is and the cost/reward ratio is getting ever more difficult to countenance for many families. You see the bubble bursting already at directional schools in the midwest and among small, private LAC's all over the country. If the number of graduating seniors continues to decline, as it is estimated to, the financial situations of more schools will become precarious. I believe the situation will affect all schools except those at the very top. The question is is UVA one of those.

If you think about it does it seem logical that we would push our high schoolers, who are already under tremendous pressure, to take yet more AP's for example? In 10 years will 20 be the new normal? I don't think so. The whole insanity is peaking right now.

Now add AI into the equation. If it comes to pass that 50% of all current jobs are indeed eliminated, even MD and JD jobs, what will the cost/reward ratio of going to college be like?

Don't get trapped into current thinking. History only traces a curve up to the point of the present.

[Anonymous]

Cite - decline in internationals

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/11/13/us-universities-report-declines-enrollments-new-international-students-study-abroad

[Anonymous]

I'm not sure that they are going to UVA at a maximum rate. How many VA resident kids attend Duke, Emory, Davidson, Vanderbilt, UNC, etc. Privates in the 10-40 range. Many of them have ACT 34+ and are in the donut hole. There is very limited merit aid at this schools. In the future their options are scaling down to the privates ranked 50+ looking for merit, or instate. This is not an argument against W&M, it would help both. As well as UMD and other highly regarded state flagships.

I would suggest that the numbers of such kids is very small. Remember at least from FFX only 2700 kids are even applying to UVA, 1700 to W&M. And many of these are the same kids. Some of these will also apply to the schools you mention. An ACT of 34+ is in the 99th percentile. Do you suppose that there are great numbers of such kids? And those who aim at the likes of Duke and who are admitted will continue to go unless it is financially prohibitive, which it is for some number of donut hole families.

No doubt Duke, for example, is aware of this and will continue to offer generous financial aid. Perhaps Harvard will be the model, where their aid makes the costs affordable for all but those families with very high incomes and/or significant assets: a tiny fraction of American households.

In this fierce competition what does UVA bring to the table other than affordable tuition for in state donut hole families? is that enough to continue to drive selectivity upward? I don't think so.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Cite - decline in internationals

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/11/13/us-universities-report-declines-enrollments-new-international-students-study-abroad

If you read the article and pay attention to the stats, it actually says that some colleges (less elite) report a "slight drop" but the other 50% report either an increase or same amount of applications. The no. of international students at UVA has actually risen from 4.5% to over 5% and they come from 173 different countries. Last year we saw the largest no. ever (1.18million) come to the U.S. to study. (BTW, C of Higher Education is really questionable - the Trump observation was just ignorant. Many international applications don't even pay attention to our politic and couldn't tell you who is president - and they come in on student visas so the "fears" mentioned in the article are false.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm not sure that they are going to UVA at a maximum rate. How many VA resident kids attend Duke, Emory, Davidson, Vanderbilt, UNC, etc. Privates in the 10-40 range. Many of them have ACT 34+ and are in the donut hole. There is very limited merit aid at this schools. In the future their options are scaling down to the privates ranked 50+ looking for merit, or instate. This is not an argument against W&M, it would help both. As well as UMD and other highly regarded state flagships.

And many VA residents simply cannot afford the $65K ++ a year that these schools cost. Especially if they have more than one child and also if any of their children plan on grad school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here. For the record, I'm neither a UVA hater nor a MD booster. I'm a Virginian whose class of 2018 dd had the stats to attend both UVA and William and Mary. I was open to both schools, but I admit I did suggest to her that W&M was a better choice for the undergraduate student of the humanities and pure sciences, if only because of it's human scale and the close contact with the faculty that that provides. She chose W&M. If she had chosen UVA, I would have been fine with that since her probable major is an unusual one with a small, excellent department at UVA. Just guiding her through the process was fascinating, tho stressful. I learned a lot and hence this thread.

It is possible, certainly, that an avalanche of international students will enable UVA to continue to march ahead. I'm skeptical, however. The number of international students in the US has fallen with the advent of the Trump administration. Further, why wouldn't the political pressures as you cite in CA also be applicable in VA if UVA were to try to drastically increase it's number of full pay international students?

The point of the bell curve is that there are only so many students of exceptional ability. These students drive selectivity. There is more competition for them than ever before, both among publics and privates. If UVA manages to increase it's instate apps, it will not be among those highly talented students. They already go to UVA at what I think will be seen to be a maximum rate. Anecdotally, I personally know two students who graduated from FCPS recently with stats at the higher end of the UVA range. One went to BC, another to Tulane, both with significant merit aid. This is the new reality I'm talking about -- it affects even in state students.

People seem to think that there is an endless supply out there somewhere (China) of brilliant kids who will push American schools to greater and greater glory. I just don't think that's true and I don't see it happening.

So is your DD graduating this year (you said class of 2018). Congrats, if so! A lot has changed just in the last four years. I doubt that my DC in second year at UVA would have made it in for the class of 2022. I read the EA results and the RD results on college confidential. A lot has changed nationwide in the last four years. Almost all colleges are citing record applications (no surprise there). The no. of international applications are up. Parents are concerned. There are plenty of UVA students with superlative records who could get into UVA. You keep citing the SAT scores and saying there are only 50K students in the USA who score that high but y ou are overlooking all the ACT students. My DC had a 34 and a 35 on retake. I thought that was amazing at the time. But if you check College Confidential you will see 34s rejected outright. UVA doesn't practice yield protection - it's simply that the students applying are that good. One of the reasons selectivity is "high" at 26.7% is because high school counselors show students the Naviance charts for their high school so many - like my other two children - didn't even try for UVA or W&M because they knew there were 60 kids in their own high school with superior stats ready to march into UVA. It made no sense to apply. I don't see population dropping, or GPAs and test scores dropping but even if they did, the GPA would drop to a 4.40 (Schev has it at 4.47 for top 25% of enrolled students at UVA last fall) and a 32-33 ACT, which are still fantastic scores. AS to why Virginians won't follow California - there's 100 different answers to that running from politics to geographical preferences to the VA General Assembly to what UVA's Board of Visitors wants. Just because California shifts in response to voter pressure does not mean UVA will follow suit. I'm not even sure that would be a good thing to increase the number of Virginia seats. I just disagree with you that things are "topping off" and that this bubble will burst. Just for this class at UVA one of the Deans posted that there are 10,000 on the waitlist. Yes, 10,000 for a class already selected of 6,000. And total applications were 37,000+. This isn't going to stop.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Good thread. Don't mind the haters who diss you for providing a thread with thought and content while they themselves add nothing.

How is the higher ed bubble going to burst?

Thank you. By bubble I mean an unsustainable increase in the costs and numbers of kids going to college. Probably too many go as it is and the cost/reward ratio is getting ever more difficult to countenance for many families. You see the bubble bursting already at directional schools in the midwest and among small, private LAC's all over the country. If the number of graduating seniors continues to decline, as it is estimated to, the financial situations of more schools will become precarious. I believe the situation will affect all schools except those at the very top. The question is is UVA one of those.

If you think about it does it seem logical that we would push our high schoolers, who are already under tremendous pressure, to take yet more AP's for example? In 10 years will 20 be the new normal? I don't think so. The whole insanity is peaking right now.

Now add AI into the equation. If it comes to pass that 50% of all current jobs are indeed eliminated, even MD and JD jobs, what will the cost/reward ratio of going to college be like?

Don't get trapped into current thinking. History only traces a curve up to the point of the present.

Somewhat irrelevant to most UVA grads who go on to business, medical, law, Ph.D programs. UVA has seven very strong graduate schools.