Hypothesis: Peak UVA
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Anonymous
I guess the last thing you can count on is somebody actually reading a thread before commenting. I notice that the "sorry you're rejection still stings" remark is a constant refrain on UVA threads. Will someone please tell me where all these stellar new applicants are going to come from, the ones who are going to make UVA the new Harvard? They're certainly not in Virginia. Oh yes, Amazon is going to bring them. I suppose UVA's continued ascendancy explains the decline in the number of RD apps this year, yes? |
Anonymous
What it means is that there are precious few students in Virginia, who as rising seniors are able to win these awards which are given to those have taken 3 to 7 AP's to that point. The number of junior national AP scholars is minuscule. The awards themselves do not require perfect scores, only averages above 3.25 and 3.5. My point is that if you actually look at the number of kids in Virginia doing even this well (again far from perfectly) on their AP exams, it turns out that it's a very small pool. Even smaller if you took only the kids with 5's. There is not a huge redoubt out there somewhere in Virginia of brilliant kids who will raise the selectivity of UVA further. Again that's not the way the bell curve works. A stable pool of high achieving Virginia kids means stable selectivity for UVA. In other words peak UVA. But of course you will need all fives on 15 AP's now and 20 in five years to have a chance in the "battle of the fittest" that is the UVA admissions process. 
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Anonymous
RD apps declined. What happened in Charlottesville is not pertinent to the argument. |
Anonymous
Here's where the "stellar applicants" are coming from should you need them: 1) There will always be demand for in-state tuition 2) That demand will continue to increase as our nation's privates continue to up their fees, year after year. 3) NoVA is growing. Look at Amazon and Tysons. 4) UVA's application pool grows every year 6) UVA's reputation keeps jumping on the rankings,which, in turn attracts more students. 7) The students understand the rules and work harder and harder earlier in their lives to rack up the awards,GPA and scores 8) There are 10,000 other UVA-quality students on the waitlist for the 6000+ accepted students for 2022. They have to go somewhere else. But if you want to know where they are - that's where the next tranche of UVA students could be. 9) UVA's applications have been up every year over the last decade. 2020's EA batch was up by 5%. https://news.virginia.edu/content/uva-sees-record-number-early-action-applications |
Anonymous
You do realize that the white supremacists were not actually *from* Charlottesville, right? Many came from out of state for that rally. But nice try. |
Anonymous
[/b] No they didn't, UVA has had increases in applications every single year going back as far as I can remember. https://news.virginia.edu/content/uva-tops-admission-application-record-third-straight-year |
Anonymous
“Went to” implies the person knows that. |
Anonymous
You mean class of 2022. I think at this point we're just talking past each other. For the record, apps now are split about evenly between EA and RD. EA apps were up 5% as you cite. Total apps were up a paltry 1%. Therefore RD (regular decision) apps must have declined. And this is the sound of the train screeching to a halt. But hey never you mind. Keep your eyes firmly on the rear view mirror. I will await the influx of Chinese students: “We are slightly down in African-American students and we are more significantly down in international students,” Roberts said. That's Dean Roberts talking about EA applications here:http://www.cavalierdaily.com/article/2017/11/early-action-application-numbers-down-for-black-and-international-students-compared-to-last-year Oh and all those bright, bright Amazonians. Sorry for the sarcasm. Check back with you next year. Buh bye. |
Anonymous
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"CHARLOTTESVILLE — The latest round of students admitted to the University of Virginia’s Class of 2022 test higher and are even more competitive than current first-years, according to data released by the university this week." http://www.richmond.com/news/local/education/nearly-offered-admission-to-uva-s-class-of/article_2c2695cc-60d8-5020-9e34-a39c98be8683.html |
Anonymous
| 2022 was a record year with an in increase in minority applications by 4%. http://wuvanews.com/2018/01/30/news/class-2022-uva-sees-record-number-applicants/ |
Anonymous
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I don't really understand the giddy delight that one person here seems to take in forecasting trouble for a good university.
Meanwhile, the for-profits are gobbling up federal student aid money, not graduating people in high numbers, and saddling people with debt. |
Anonymous
| 11,739 minorities applied, an increase of 4%. https://www.ivycoach.com/the-ivy-coach-blog/early-decision-early-action/university-virginia-class-2022-statistics/ |
Anonymous
I don't either. He just wants to stir the pot for some reason. All is good at UVA. I don't know what his problem is. |
Anonymous
| Every indicator shows UVA continuing upward: "The University received 2,804 applications from students self-identifying as African-American, an increase of 35 percent from 2013. Though African-American applicants declined by 3 percent from last year's record-breaking numbers, this year's total remains the second-highest in University history."https://news.virginia.edu/content/uva-tops-admission-application-record-third-straight-year |
Anonymous
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OP here. I wasn't going to post again on this thread, but I felt I had to defend myself from all this hate. I merely posted a prediction, in a very dispassionate way, that there might be natural limits to UVA's upward trajectory. That's all I said and I gave what I still feel are cogent arguments why this is the case. I said and I say again that UVA is a fine school and I would have been fine with my own dd attending. Isn't this a college and university discussion forum?
For this I was called a freak, a UVA hater, a MD booster, that I didn't know what I was talking about (an idiot), someone who wants to stir the pot, someone who takes glee from predicting trouble ahead for a good state flagship and someone still bitter that he was denied acceptance to the "grounds". The same historical stats were thrown out again and again which say nothing about the future and the essential halt in the increase in the number of UVA apps this year and what it may mean was never addressed. So yeah, I guess I got a little sarcastic in some of my replies, but whatever. I shall never understand the UVA "thing." Merely suggest anything that threatens the UVA uber alles mantra and you risk a hail of dismissive criticism and personal invective. I wasn't even criticizing the University at all. I'm not from this area. My high school classmates were focused on LAC's and Ivy's. UVA wasn't even on their radar, so I have no personal history of people's strong reaction to UVA topics. I don't want to believe the stereotype of UVA people being arrogant blanks. It just got a little harder. Let's see what happens over the coming years, if I'm wrong that's perfectly okay with me. If I'm right, you heard it here first. |