Understanding MacArthur High Lottery Results

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Are you saying the demographics and income levels of the Eastern catchment is even remotely similar to the MacArthur catchment?! If you are, you’re wrong.

That's not what they are saying at all. They are saying that if Eastern served a representative sample of its neighborhood it would not be a Title I. Yet it is a Title I, because people have other options and aren't choosing Eastern. Much like how people zoned for MacArthur have other options. The demographics don't have to be identical to produce a similar result.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Are you saying the demographics and income levels of the Eastern catchment is even remotely similar to the MacArthur catchment?! If you are, you’re wrong.

That's not what they are saying at all. They are saying that if Eastern served a representative sample of its neighborhood it would not be a Title I. Yet it is a Title I, because people have other options and aren't choosing Eastern. Much like how people zoned for MacArthur have other options. The demographics don't have to be identical to produce a similar result.

I think it's a bad comparison for a different reason. Eastern has five feeders. MacArthur has one.

Getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families across five feeder schools that themselves have minimal buy in from MC/UMC families is a lot harder than getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families from one feeder school that already has a large MC/UMC population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Are you saying the demographics and income levels of the Eastern catchment is even remotely similar to the MacArthur catchment?! If you are, you’re wrong.

That's not what they are saying at all. They are saying that if Eastern served a representative sample of its neighborhood it would not be a Title I. Yet it is a Title I, because people have other options and aren't choosing Eastern. Much like how people zoned for MacArthur have other options. The demographics don't have to be identical to produce a similar result.

I think it's a bad comparison for a different reason. Eastern has five feeders. MacArthur has one.

Getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families across five feeder schools that themselves have minimal buy in from MC/UMC families is a lot harder than getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families from one feeder school that already has a large MC/UMC population.

Maybe. Hardy is 33% economically disadvantaged, just FYI. And you have to understand that even if entering 9th grade classes are significantly more high-income, it takes a while for that to move the average of the school as a whole. And Macarthur was set up to have room for out of boundary kids, on purpose. So that will also affect the numbers. And DCPS and school leadership can make efforts to stay Title I to get the money. So I just don't see MacArthur getting off the Title I designation list anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

DCPS is targeting 200 9th graders. Hardy is only 12% at risk. I suspect the yield from lottery matches is low, because the school is so far from most of the city. (As others noted above, the 481 includes students who matched at higher ranked options including application high schools. 5 must be an added it right away post-lottery number.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DCPS is targeting 200 9th graders. Hardy is only 12% at risk. I suspect the yield from lottery matches is low, because the school is so far from most of the city. (As others noted above, the 481 includes students who matched at higher ranked options including application high schools. 5 must be an added it right away post-lottery number.)

At-risk is a concept in DC city law. It isn't the same thing as the federal criteria for Title I. The federal criteria is what matters for this. DCPS will keep it Title I as long as they can, for the money.

The 5 is siblings who matched at schools they ranked higher.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Are you saying the demographics and income levels of the Eastern catchment is even remotely similar to the MacArthur catchment?! If you are, you’re wrong.

That's not what they are saying at all. They are saying that if Eastern served a representative sample of its neighborhood it would not be a Title I. Yet it is a Title I, because people have other options and aren't choosing Eastern. Much like how people zoned for MacArthur have other options. The demographics don't have to be identical to produce a similar result.

I think it's a bad comparison for a different reason. Eastern has five feeders. MacArthur has one.

Getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families across five feeder schools that themselves have minimal buy in from MC/UMC families is a lot harder than getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families from one feeder school that already has a large MC/UMC population.

Maybe. Hardy is 33% economically disadvantaged, just FYI. And you have to understand that even if entering 9th grade classes are significantly more high-income, it takes a while for that to move the average of the school as a whole. And Macarthur was set up to have room for out of boundary kids, on purpose. So that will also affect the numbers. And DCPS and school leadership can make efforts to stay Title I to get the money. So I just don't see MacArthur getting off the Title I designation list anytime soon.

Hardy is 13% at risk according to the SY24-25 audit.

Meanwhile Browne EC is 70%, Capitol Hill Montessori 24%, Eliot-Hine 44%, Jefferson 61%, and Stuart-Hobson 27%.

I think it's fine if MacArthur continues to get Title I funding. But can get neighborhood buy in too? If not, the school is in a terrible location for a defacto citywide school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Are you saying the demographics and income levels of the Eastern catchment is even remotely similar to the MacArthur catchment?! If you are, you’re wrong.

That's not what they are saying at all. They are saying that if Eastern served a representative sample of its neighborhood it would not be a Title I. Yet it is a Title I, because people have other options and aren't choosing Eastern. Much like how people zoned for MacArthur have other options. The demographics don't have to be identical to produce a similar result.

I think it's a bad comparison for a different reason. Eastern has five feeders. MacArthur has one.

Getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families across five feeder schools that themselves have minimal buy in from MC/UMC families is a lot harder than getting collective buy in from MC/UMC families from one feeder school that already has a large MC/UMC population.

Maybe. Hardy is 33% economically disadvantaged, just FYI. And you have to understand that even if entering 9th grade classes are significantly more high-income, it takes a while for that to move the average of the school as a whole. And Macarthur was set up to have room for out of boundary kids, on purpose. So that will also affect the numbers. And DCPS and school leadership can make efforts to stay Title I to get the money. So I just don't see MacArthur getting off the Title I designation list anytime soon.

Hardy is 13% at risk according to the SY24-25 audit.

Meanwhile Browne EC is 70%, Capitol Hill Montessori 24%, Eliot-Hine 44%, Jefferson 61%, and Stuart-Hobson 27%.

I think it's fine if MacArthur continues to get Title I funding. But can get neighborhood buy in too? If not, the school is in a terrible location for a defacto citywide school.

I have no idea if it can get that. A lot of people who live there are too schmancy for any public school at all. Or they're Republicans.

[Anonymous]

7th grade Hardy families are positive about Macarthur.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:7th grade Hardy families are positive about Macarthur.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought Macarthur was intended to have spots for city wide from the beginning.

It was not designed to be 100% neighborhood school which is why they have spots as well

+1. Even if all Hardy kids go, there is still room for OOB.

But not all Hardy kids will go and number was less last year then the year before.

The title 1 kids will also pull in OOB siblings.

I doubt MA will shed title 1 status anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

“The title 1 kids”?!

My eyes just rolled so hard. What does that even mean?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:“The title 1 kids”?!

My eyes just rolled so hard. What does that even mean?

You don't have to like it, but PP likelymeans the students who meet the eligibility criteria for the federal Title I program.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought Macarthur was intended to have spots for city wide from the beginning.

It was not designed to be 100% neighborhood school which is why they have spots as well

This is not accurate. If 200 in-boundary 9th graders enrolled, they would not over-enroll with out of boundary. However, there is no scenario where that will happen - in it's heyday, the most Hardy 8th graders who went to JR was about 80% of the class so knowing this, there will always be probably 20-30 seats for 20-30 kids from out of boundary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

They are expecting about 80 kids from Hardy to go to MHS. In past 2 years they have gotten a chunk from Burke, JR/deal, Oyster/Adams, and other top performing middles (Eliot-Hine; Stuart Hobson).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

They are expecting about 80 kids from Hardy to go to MHS. In past 2 years they have gotten a chunk from Burke, JR/deal, Oyster/Adams, and other top performing middles (Eliot-Hine; Stuart Hobson).

80 from Hardy sounds about right.

Only schools sending > 10 students to MacArthur over last two years have been Hardy, Deal, Francis-Stevens, Stuart-Hobson, not in audit (e.g., private, move from elsewhere). Students are coming from many different schools, DCPS and charter.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways