Understanding MacArthur High Lottery Results

[Anonymous]

For 9th grade:

Lottery Seats - 220
Applications on Result Day - 481
Matches on Results Day - 185
Waitlist Length on Results day - 5

New DCPS parent of middle schooler in bounds for Macarthur. Trying to figure out how the lottery systems works.

1. How did the school offer 220 lottery seats for 9th grade, if the school is a neighborhood school, and not a 100% lottery-based? And official max capacity for the student body is 800 students?
2. If they received 481 applications, and accepted 185 students, why is waitlist only 5 students?

[Anonymous]

For 2, the answer is that some kids matched with schools they ranked above MacArthur.

Less sure about 1, but it could be that while the school isn't full, they want a larger 9th grade class. They also might be planning for some kids who got offered spots to not accept them.

[Anonymous]

OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For 9th grade:

Lottery Seats - 220
Applications on Result Day - 481
Matches on Results Day - 185
Waitlist Length on Results day - 5

New DCPS parent of middle schooler in bounds for Macarthur. Trying to figure out how the lottery systems works.

1. How did the school offer 220 lottery seats for 9th grade, if the school is a neighborhood school, and not a 100% lottery-based? And official max capacity for the student body is 800 students?
2. If they received 481 applications, and accepted 185 students, why is waitlist only 5 students?

481 students put MacArthur on their list but many matched with a school they ranked higher.

To me, it looks like MacArthur was able to match everyone who applied who didn't match with a school they ranked higher - 185. The 5 on the waitlist were likely post-lottery applicants, who weren't matched on match day but will likely be soon.

I think MacArthur offered so many lottery seats upfront to avoid scrambling to fill seats later in the summer. (You can see last year they had made 165 waitlist offers by June, 307 by August.) It's unlikely that all 185 matches will attend in the fall; some initially matched will get off waitlists elsewhere or opt to do private, move, etc. But this way most of the school's admin work is done upfront.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think MacArthur offered so many lottery seats upfront to avoid scrambling to fill seats later in the summer. (You can see last year they had made 165 waitlist offers by June, 307 by August.) It's unlikely that all 185 matches will attend in the fall; some initially matched will get off waitlists elsewhere or opt to do private, move, etc. But this way most of the school's admin work is done upfront.

This is the answer. They assume half the kids offered lottery seats won't accept them. It will be interesting to see whether that happens - I think they will potentially get more kids who accept than expected. It's a lot easier to say yes to a 9th grade lottery spot in May than in early August (when you've probably already scrambled to make other plans).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

But MacArthur determined they have 200 lottery seats back in March (or even earlier), how did they know that no one would coming from Hardy that early?

[Anonymous]

Also, how can majority of Hardy kids go tor Jackson Reed this fall, when it’s no longer an in bound option, and JR offered 0 lottery seats?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think MacArthur offered so many lottery seats upfront to avoid scrambling to fill seats later in the summer. (You can see last year they had made 165 waitlist offers by June, 307 by August.) It's unlikely that all 185 matches will attend in the fall; some initially matched will get off waitlists elsewhere or opt to do private, move, etc. But this way most of the school's admin work is done upfront.

This is the answer. They assume half the kids offered lottery seats won't accept them. It will be interesting to see whether that happens - I think they will potentially get more kids who accept than expected. It's a lot easier to say yes to a 9th grade lottery spot in May than in early August (when you've probably already scrambled to make other plans).

Yes. DCPS enrollment management involves formula forecasting based on recent years experience for each school. With a new school like MacArthur, it's not an exact science. But they do know how many Hardy kids have historically gone to Walls and other selectives, how many have left the public data set by going to private high schools, and things like that.

They likely offered a lot of seats because they didn't want to turn anyone away, and figured the numbers would come down or they would hire more teachers if they had to.


The 5 waitlisted are probably because they matched somewhere they ranked higher but have a sibling at MacArthur.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Also, how can majority of Hardy kids go tor Jackson Reed this fall, when it’s no longer an in bound option, and JR offered 0 lottery seats?

They can't. But that doesn't mean they will all go to MacArthur. For example, if someone true preference was, say, JR-Walls-MacArthur, they might end up at Walls instead of JR. Or perhaps if they got really lucky or were a sibling at DCI or Latin for 9th.

[Anonymous]

11:56 is correct. For context, last year Walls made a total of 248 9th grade offers (match day + waitlist) and had only 152 9th graders enrolled on count day. If you assume the same yield for MacArthur, you’d expect the 185 lottery matches to turn into only 113 enrolled 9th graders, leaving plenty of room for 100 kids from Hardy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, how can majority of Hardy kids go tor Jackson Reed this fall, when it’s no longer an in bound option, and JR offered 0 lottery seats?

They can't. But that doesn't mean they will all go to MacArthur. For example, if someone true preference was, say, JR-Walls-MacArthur, they might end up at Walls instead of JR. Or perhaps if they got really lucky or were a sibling at DCI or Latin for 9th.

Not all, of course, but out of 200 8th graders, realistically, how many will get to Walls, JR (with no lottery seats), private, or move out of DC? Even half sounds unrealistic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

[Anonymous]

I thought Macarthur was intended to have spots for city wide from the beginning.

It was not designed to be 100% neighborhood school which is why they have spots as well