Understanding MacArthur High Lottery Results

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:11:56 is correct. For context, last year Walls made a total of 248 9th grade offers (match day + waitlist) and had only 152 9th graders enrolled on count day. If you assume the same yield for MacArthur, you’d expect the 185 lottery matches to turn into only 113 enrolled 9th graders, leaving plenty of room for 100 kids from Hardy.

That makes sense. Also that's pretty enlightening, I though it's extremely hard to get into Walls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, how can majority of Hardy kids go tor Jackson Reed this fall, when it’s no longer an in bound option, and JR offered 0 lottery seats?

They can't. But that doesn't mean they will all go to MacArthur. For example, if someone true preference was, say, JR-Walls-MacArthur, they might end up at Walls instead of JR. Or perhaps if they got really lucky or were a sibling at DCI or Latin for 9th.

Not all, of course, but out of 200 8th graders, realistically, how many will get to Walls, JR (with no lottery seats), private, or move out of DC? Even half sounds unrealistic.

If you consider all application schools, and other charters, some will. People make choices for all kinds of reasons. Possibly Cap City, EL Haynes, WLA, the EPIC track at Eastern, might draw some folks.

Given the uncertainty with parent jobs in DC right now, I think we will see a higher than usual number of families leaving DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Bad comparison. Eastern is in the 'gentrifying' part of DC, MacArthur is in one of the walthiest and family friendly neighborhoods.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought Macarthur was intended to have spots for city wide from the beginning.

It was not designed to be 100% neighborhood school which is why they have spots as well

You can see Macarthur Equitable access number by the link in this thread - they only offered 6 seats for that for 9th graders.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

SY22-23 Hardy 8th grade sent 55 to JR, 55 to MacArthur

SY23-24 Hardy 8th grade sent 78 to JR, 21 to MacArthur

But isn't this the first year Hardy students won't have the option for JR?

Before MacArthur existed, Hardy was only sending ~100 students to Wilson/JR, so I think that's an upper bound on how many from any given Hardy class will end up at MacArthur. MacArthur is aiming for 200 students per grade, so will likely be at least 50% OOB going forward. It was 70% OOB in SY23-24.

https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

[Anonymous]

I think - for a bunch of reasons - it's not a good reason to compare the Walls and MacArthur yields. But you can compare this year to MacArthur's last couple years and see how many offers they have made to fill seats.

I know some kids who would have jumped at a MacArthur spot in May last year (and didn't match anywhere else in the lottery) but, for logistical/sanity reasons, couldn't wait to see if the they got an offer off the waitlist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I thought Macarthur was intended to have spots for city wide from the beginning.

It was not designed to be 100% neighborhood school which is why they have spots as well

No, the citywide thing is PR.

If everyone from Hardy were to go, there would not be much, if any, space for OOB.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think - for a bunch of reasons - it's not a good reason to compare the Walls and MacArthur yields. But you can compare this year to MacArthur's last couple years and see how many offers they have made to fill seats.

I know some kids who would have jumped at a MacArthur spot in May last year (and didn't match anywhere else in the lottery) but, for logistical/sanity reasons, couldn't wait to see if the they got an offer off the waitlist.

So where did they go then? Private or moved?

[Anonymous]

Hardy 8th graders do not have the option of picking J-R.

Even now, and certainly in March, DCPS has limited information of how many Hardy students or in-bound-but-not-Hardy students will choose MacArthur. They know how many 8th graders applied to selective schools or private schools, but that's all they know.

I thought the school capacity was like 800, or 200/grade.

That will be classic when MacArthur ends up way over-crowded from the get-go, when it's theoretical purpose was to relieve overcrowding at J-R. So DCPS. They can't help but trying to solve the challenges of education by trying to cram all students somewhere in NW.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hardy 8th graders do not have the option of picking J-R.

Even now, and certainly in March, DCPS has limited information of how many Hardy students or in-bound-but-not-Hardy students will choose MacArthur. They know how many 8th graders applied to selective schools or private schools, but that's all they know.

I thought the school capacity was like 800, or 200/grade.

That will be classic when MacArthur ends up way over-crowded from the get-go, when it's theoretical purpose was to relieve overcrowding at J-R. So DCPS. They can't help but trying to solve the challenges of education by trying to cram all students somewhere in NW.

OP, and this is exactly my thoughts. It looks like for MacArthur 9th grade to not be overcapacity, less than 150 people out of 185 that were offered spots should accept, and then less than 50 out of Hardy 200 8th graders should go there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Bad comparison. Eastern is in the 'gentrifying' part of DC, MacArthur is in one of the walthiest and family friendly neighborhoods.

Gentrifying?

Eastern is in the 20003 zip code, which has a $850k ave home price. Plenty of $2m homes in 20003.

65% of Eastern students don’t live in the school boundaries.

Given that ave housing prices are even higher in the 20007 zip code where MA is (and even higher in Palisades), I expect you may see even lower numbers of in-bounds students at MA.

No reason to think MA will shed Title I anytime soon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy 8th graders do not have the option of picking J-R.

Even now, and certainly in March, DCPS has limited information of how many Hardy students or in-bound-but-not-Hardy students will choose MacArthur. They know how many 8th graders applied to selective schools or private schools, but that's all they know.

I thought the school capacity was like 800, or 200/grade.

That will be classic when MacArthur ends up way over-crowded from the get-go, when it's theoretical purpose was to relieve overcrowding at J-R. So DCPS. They can't help but trying to solve the challenges of education by trying to cram all students somewhere in NW.

OP, and this is exactly my thoughts. It looks like for MacArthur 9th grade to not be overcapacity, less than 150 people out of 185 that were offered spots should accept, and then less than 50 out of Hardy 200 8th graders should go there.

Maybe they're OK with the risk of slightly overenrolling the 9th grade class. The incoming 11th and 12th grade classes are smaller, so the overall building capacity will still be there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hardy 8th graders do not have the option of picking J-R.

Even now, and certainly in March, DCPS has limited information of how many Hardy students or in-bound-but-not-Hardy students will choose MacArthur. They know how many 8th graders applied to selective schools or private schools, but that's all they know.

I thought the school capacity was like 800, or 200/grade.

That will be classic when MacArthur ends up way over-crowded from the get-go, when it's theoretical purpose was to relieve overcrowding at J-R. So DCPS. They can't help but trying to solve the challenges of education by trying to cram all students somewhere in NW.

OP, and this is exactly my thoughts. It looks like for MacArthur 9th grade to not be overcapacity, less than 150 people out of 185 that were offered spots should accept, and then less than 50 out of Hardy 200 8th graders should go there.

Maybe they're OK with the risk of slightly overenrolling the 9th grade class. The incoming 11th and 12th grade classes are smaller, so the overall building capacity will still be there.

The building capacity is not there yet -- the construction of an addition will be completed in summer 2026.

[Anonymous]

They probably think they can get some trailers if they have to.

You can look at historic enrollment patterns here
https://edscape.dc.gov/page/student-enrollment-pathways

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here, forgot to include the link I was looking at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

Thanks PP! For 1, I'm just puzzled about how they are not expecting for so very few students out of 200+ 8th graders at Hardy to go MacArthur. I was thinking at least half of Hardy would go to MacArthur, say 100. Then we have 185 'lotteried' kids now. 285 kids in 9th grade for a school with 800 students capacity seems a bit nuts.

The answer is that majority of Hardy kids did not pick MA and went to JR. This is very obvious since MA is a title 1 school.

The other answer is that did not list MA high and got in and went with a higher rank school.

Will it still be Title 1 though as it morphs into a neighborhood school? Most of the kids from Hardy aren’t low income, as I understand it anyway.

What makes you think that will happen? Look at Eastern for example. Still Title I after all these years.

Are you saying the demographics and income levels of the Eastern catchment is even remotely similar to the MacArthur catchment?! If you are, you’re wrong.