Future of DC metro

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:#2. Trump will move the seat of government to a red state, building a white palace for himself to rule from.

Wow. I think you really over-estimate his power and support.

You underestimate it. What he has been able to do to dismantle our government and our relationships with the rest of the world since his election is proof of that. He is just getting started.

He is getting started with the most radical things first because you need to grasp the momentum. Otherwise you allow your resistance to mobilize from every side and new resistance form, and it can paralyze you. The strategy with this term is very different than with the previous term. It's also more chaotic. It's why there are 4 possible scenarios or more because anything can happen. But I do not believe he is just getting started.

You’ll see.

See what? If you know something, say something.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think they'll let #1 happen and then the rich oligarchs will come up with some kind of federal takeover of DC and the residents at that at point will beg them to.

DC will become one of the Tech Bro fiefdoms.

Trump will remain as Chairman of the Board with Elon remaining as President.

That would be scenario #4. Tech bros dividing DC empty CRE and building urban tech campuses (capitalized on existing urban grid, amenities and transit) that young techies like even more than suburban sprawl of SV or "tech corridors" like Reston.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think they'll let #1 happen and then the rich oligarchs will come up with some kind of federal takeover of DC and the residents at that at point will beg them to.

DC will become one of the Tech Bro fiefdoms.

Trump will remain as Chairman of the Board with Elon remaining as President.

That would be scenario #4. Tech bros dividing DC empty CRE and building urban tech campuses (capitalized on existing urban grid, amenities and transit) that young techies like even more than suburban sprawl of SV or "tech corridors" like Reston.

And their favorite pres may even give them incentives in terms of tax laws leveraging special status of DC as a non-state and some of it being federal property. That is the scenario 4.

[Anonymous]

The metro is gross. No one I know takes it. Everyone drives or has a driver.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He will basically rule from Mar-a-lago and expect everyone to come there.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/trump/2025/01/17/trump-to-spend-more-time-at-mar-a-lago-palm-beach-florida/77666771007/

He is an old man and hates the cold.

this doesn't mean he is relocating the entire government to mar-a-lago It's an RE agent article fluffing up FL. Biden managed to spend a good chunk of his time in his DE beach house too, nobody called it a "second white house".

Also would be hypocritical given Palm Beach is one of the most expensive enclaves in the entire country which makes DC look like rural Louisiana in terms of prices. This would just give an excuse to his opponents to "drain the swamp" of the Palm Beach, political leverage to stroke growing discontent from working class. Ironically also resplendent with the infamous Epstein activity.. A low hanging fruit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The metro is gross. No one I know takes it. Everyone drives or has a driver.

It's objectively not gross if you had been a heavy user of NYC subway system It's sketchy in terms of rogue teens using it to entertain themselves and some other criminal activity. That's a different problem though, from it being disgusting and its stations falling into disrepair, getting rusty and flooded like in NYC.

[Anonymous]

Between 1 and 2 for the next 2-3 years, and then we'll see.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The metro is gross. No one I know takes it. Everyone drives or has a driver.

DC is small, Federal buildings area is centrally located. You could easily walk or bike from most DC neighborhoods where yuppies tend to live.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Without taxpayers paying taxes, I don’t see how metro can survive.

Or tourism. If he and Musk cut staff and funding to maintain historical monuments, museums and buildings and move government activities out of DC, what will be there to attract tourists?

Ruins.. It might make for a certain type of niche tourism, you would be surprised.

Russian and Chinese tourists?

[Anonymous]

I think it will be a mix of 1 and 3. Some areas won’t see much of a decline, but I don’t believe private industry will fill the gap. There will also be losses due to a reduction in government size. What people often overlook is how much the federal government still impacts private industry. I believe some parts of NOVA, MoCo, and areas of DC will remain stable, but east of the river—PG, Charles County, and outer MoCo/East MoCo—will lose their pandemic gains and revert to pre-pandemic prices. Overall, it will be tough, no matter how you look at it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What do you envision is going to happen to DC metro in the next few years, 10 years?

DOGE bros clearly don't care if DC gets completely destroyed, but Trump's cronies being big on RE dev/investment might want to capitalize and may have different plans than turning DC into the skid row of empty buildings, tent cities and fentanyl land.

Realistically speaking, any area that doesn't have job opportunities or private capital investment or vacation spot amenities and great weather is destined to become a sh**hole.

Scenario 1: DC declines.
We already discussed scenarios where massive job numbers are lost and not coming back. In this case destiny of DC is likely going to resemble Baltimore with the suburbs remaining nice if they were already nice, areas that were up and coming falling into disrepair and getting worse. DC proper would likely become separated into the "no-go" crime infested areas and older established good areas remaining more or less decent by attracting whatever is left of urban wealthy, professionals, tourists and students, and foreigners and rich kids coming for their political "rotations". DC may become what it was in early 2000s. Prices are unlikely to fall to these levels because of inflation alone and the fact that if they fall so far down there is bound to be investor activity propping it up. RE prices go a bit lower, but there is floor on prices.

Scenario 2: Apocalypse. DC gets abandoned as a seat of the government with most of the government completely dismantled. It become a shadow of itself and even worse than the 90s. Think Philadelphia skid row that makes so many Fentanyl despair videos. Older money areas like Gtown, Kalorama, Dupont and parts of Foggy Bottom likely remaining somewhat ok but having to use more security and police to cater to the trickle of tourists visiting the "ruins", students of Gtown and GWU, and a few rich people still clinging to their homes/lifestyle. Suburbs still surviving on whatever private sector jobs are still left with affluent areas becoming more or less gated communities, but RE prices in the entire DC metro go dramatically down.

Scenario 3: DC remains the same
Job losses might be offset with some influx of private capital opportunism not wanting what good exists in the area to go to complete waste. Federal buildings will be converted into condos where possible or demolished and rebuilt into residential/mixed use we already have in many newer areas. Construction brings extra jobs too. Tough on crime politics restore confidence of younger population to live there and increase tourism and traffic from suburbia for dining/entertainment. At some point re-hiring resumes whether Fed jobs are replaced by private industry or ramped up to a certain degree again. Some new companies can pop up trying to replace some lost government functions. Economically things remain more or less the same even with vast reduction of the government footprint. RE prices remain stable.

Scenario 4: DC booms
On a very positive note there is massive investment into DC empty premium areas, new tech campuses built inside abandoned federal buildings and DC becomes a new tech hub re-employing all the educated population let go in mass layoffs, plus attracting more people to move into the area. Favorable tax laws for businesses implemented in the District (getting special status) bringing private capital and foreign investment. Suburbs boom as a result of this too with families still wanting their SFHs and some spillover into the biotech in MD and tech/fintech in VA. RE prices go up.

Which scenario do you think is more likely in the next several years?

I genuinely think it will be scenario #4 for all the reasons you stated (especially in the northern VA area).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Without taxpayers paying taxes, I don’t see how metro can survive.

Or tourism. If he and Musk cut staff and funding to maintain historical monuments, museums and buildings and move government activities out of DC, what will be there to attract tourists?

Ruins.. It might make for a certain type of niche tourism, you would be surprised.

Russian and Chinese tourists?

All sorts. Ruins of empires tend to attract visitors. Rome is still standing and is quite busy

Ok, joking aside. Williamsburg gets pretty crowded even on cold weekends, we tried

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it will be a mix of 1 and 3. Some areas won’t see much of a decline, but I don’t believe private industry will fill the gap. There will also be losses due to a reduction in government size. What people often overlook is how much the federal government still impacts private industry. I believe some parts of NOVA, MoCo, and areas of DC will remain stable, but east of the river—PG, Charles County, and outer MoCo/East MoCo—will lose their pandemic gains and revert to pre-pandemic prices. Overall, it will be tough, no matter how you look at it.

This.

[Anonymous]

#3
They're going to lay a lot of people off and then re-hire them as contractors.

[Anonymous]

I believe that Northern VA will become the Silicon Valley of the East. Right now, there is so much tech investment in the area. I also think that the rest of the DMV will fine, though they will look different.