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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]What do you envision is going to happen to DC metro in the next few years, 10 years?

DOGE bros clearly don't care if DC gets completely destroyed, but Trump's cronies being big on RE dev/investment might want to capitalize  and may have different plans than turning DC into the skid row of empty buildings, tent cities and fentanyl land.

Realistically speaking, any area that doesn't have job opportunities or private capital investment or vacation spot amenities and great weather is destined to become a sh**hole.

Scenario 1:  DC declines.
We already discussed scenarios where massive job numbers are lost and not coming back.  In this case destiny of DC is likely going to resemble Baltimore with the suburbs remaining nice if they were already nice, areas that were up and coming falling into disrepair and getting worse.  DC proper would likely become separated into the "no-go" crime infested areas and older established good areas remaining more or less decent by attracting whatever is left of urban wealthy, professionals, tourists and students, and foreigners and rich kids coming for their political "rotations".  DC may become what it was in early 2000s. Prices are unlikely to fall to these levels because of inflation alone and the fact that if they fall so far down there is bound to be investor activity propping it up.  RE prices go a bit lower, but there is floor on prices.

Scenario 2: Apocalypse.  DC gets abandoned as a seat of the government with most of the government completely dismantled.  It become a shadow of itself and even worse than the 90s.  Think Philadelphia skid row that makes so many Fentanyl despair videos.  Older money areas like Gtown, Kalorama, Dupont and parts of Foggy Bottom likely remaining somewhat ok but having to use more security and police to cater to the trickle of tourists visiting the "ruins", students of Gtown and GWU, and a few rich people still clinging to their homes/lifestyle.  Suburbs still surviving on whatever private sector jobs are still left with affluent areas becoming more or less gated communities, but RE prices in the entire DC metro go dramatically down.

Scenario 3: DC remains the same
Job losses might be offset with some influx of private capital opportunism not wanting what good exists in the area to go to complete waste.  Federal buildings will be converted into condos where possible or demolished and rebuilt into residential/mixed use we already have in many newer areas.  Construction brings extra jobs too. Tough on crime politics restore confidence of younger population to live there and increase tourism and traffic from suburbia for dining/entertainment.  At some point re-hiring resumes whether Fed jobs are replaced by private industry or ramped up to a certain degree again.  Some new companies can pop up trying to replace some lost government functions.  Economically things remain more or less the same even with vast reduction of the government footprint.  RE prices remain stable.

Scenario 4: DC booms
On a very positive note there is massive investment into DC empty premium areas, new tech campuses built inside abandoned federal buildings and DC becomes a new tech hub re-employing all the educated population let go in mass layoffs, plus attracting more people to move into the area.  Favorable tax laws for businesses implemented in the District (getting special status) bringing private capital and foreign investment.  Suburbs boom as a result of this too with families still wanting their SFHs and some spillover into the biotech in MD and tech/fintech in VA.  RE prices go up.

Which scenario do you think is more likely in the next several years?

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I genuinely think it will be scenario #4 for all the reasons you stated (especially in the northern VA area).[/quote]

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