Future of DC metro

[Anonymous]

What do you envision is going to happen to DC metro in the next few years, 10 years?

DOGE bros clearly don't care if DC gets completely destroyed, but Trump's cronies being big on RE dev/investment might want to capitalize and may have different plans than turning DC into the skid row of empty buildings, tent cities and fentanyl land.

Realistically speaking, any area that doesn't have job opportunities or private capital investment or vacation spot amenities and great weather is destined to become a sh**hole.

Scenario 1: DC declines.
We already discussed scenarios where massive job numbers are lost and not coming back. In this case destiny of DC is likely going to resemble Baltimore with the suburbs remaining nice if they were already nice, areas that were up and coming falling into disrepair and getting worse. DC proper would likely become separated into the "no-go" crime infested areas and older established good areas remaining more or less decent by attracting whatever is left of urban wealthy, professionals, tourists and students, and foreigners and rich kids coming for their political "rotations". DC may become what it was in early 2000s. Prices are unlikely to fall to these levels because of inflation alone and the fact that if they fall so far down there is bound to be investor activity propping it up. RE prices go a bit lower, but there is floor on prices.

Scenario 2: Apocalypse. DC gets abandoned as a seat of the government with most of the government completely dismantled. It become a shadow of itself and even worse than the 90s. Think Philadelphia skid row that makes so many Fentanyl despair videos. Older money areas like Gtown, Kalorama, Dupont and parts of Foggy Bottom likely remaining somewhat ok but having to use more security and police to cater to the trickle of tourists visiting the "ruins", students of Gtown and GWU, and a few rich people still clinging to their homes/lifestyle. Suburbs still surviving on whatever private sector jobs are still left with affluent areas becoming more or less gated communities, but RE prices in the entire DC metro go dramatically down.

Scenario 3: DC remains the same
Job losses might be offset with some influx of private capital opportunism not wanting what good exists in the area to go to complete waste. Federal buildings will be converted into condos where possible or demolished and rebuilt into residential/mixed use we already have in many newer areas. Construction brings extra jobs too. Tough on crime politics restore confidence of younger population to live there and increase tourism and traffic from suburbia for dining/entertainment. At some point re-hiring resumes whether Fed jobs are replaced by private industry or ramped up to a certain degree again. Some new companies can pop up trying to replace some lost government functions. Economically things remain more or less the same even with vast reduction of the government footprint. RE prices remain stable.

Scenario 4: DC booms
On a very positive note there is massive investment into DC empty premium areas, new tech campuses built inside abandoned federal buildings and DC becomes a new tech hub re-employing all the educated population let go in mass layoffs, plus attracting more people to move into the area. Favorable tax laws for businesses implemented in the District (getting special status) bringing private capital and foreign investment. Suburbs boom as a result of this too with families still wanting their SFHs and some spillover into the biotech in MD and tech/fintech in VA. RE prices go up.

Which scenario do you think is more likely in the next several years?

[Anonymous]

Obviously rooting for Scenario #4, but realistically think we will see Scenario #1 or #3 in the short term--ie, the real estate equivalent of stagflation where everything hovers in limbo until someone with vision is able to jumpstart growth again.

[Anonymous]

#2. People finally leave the swamp.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:#2. People finally leave the swamp.

The new swamp is clearly forming, spending bill is pretty high. Will swamp relocate? where will the spending be, because it will be..

[Anonymous]

I think they'll let #1 happen and then the rich oligarchs will come up with some kind of federal takeover of DC and the residents at that at point will beg them to.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think they'll let #1 happen and then the rich oligarchs will come up with some kind of federal takeover of DC and the residents at that at point will beg them to.

So, it will be #1 followed by #3 or #4 potentially? If takeover means favorable business laws and tax laws for companies then #3 is definitely a reality.

[Anonymous]

#2. Trump will move the seat of government to a red state, building a white palace for himself to rule from.

[Anonymous]

I don’t think that much will end up happening because of DOGE. So far DOGE just seems like a lot of dumb, loud f$&ing around. They haven’t rooted out any “waste” or “fraud” or added any efficiency, they’ve just cut some stuff willy nilly.

[Anonymous]

# 3

[Anonymous]

I vote for #3. Some Feds will have to move out. But the lawyers and lobbyists will remain downtown, and a new swamp will replace the old swamp. Plus there are thousands of DC residents whose jobs are not connected at all to the Federal Government. Maybe some housing price drops but not an apocolypse.

[Anonymous]

3. There will be some messy years, but the arc of real estate is long and it bends towards major existing investments. (Apologies to Dr. King).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:#2. Trump will move the seat of government to a red state, building a white palace for himself to rule from.

Wow. I think you really over-estimate his power and support.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think that much will end up happening because of DOGE. So far DOGE just seems like a lot of dumb, loud f$&ing around. They haven’t rooted out any “waste” or “fraud” or added any efficiency, they’ve just cut some stuff willy nilly.

It's not willy nilly. They've cut any aspects of government that Musk is being investigated by or wants to take over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What do you envision is going to happen to DC metro in the next few years, 10 years?

DOGE bros clearly don't care if DC gets completely destroyed, but Trump's cronies being big on RE dev/investment might want to capitalize and may have different plans than turning DC into the skid row of empty buildings, tent cities and fentanyl land.

Realistically speaking, any area that doesn't have job opportunities or private capital investment or vacation spot amenities and great weather is destined to become a sh**hole.

Scenario 1: DC declines.
We already discussed scenarios where massive job numbers are lost and not coming back. In this case destiny of DC is likely going to resemble Baltimore with the suburbs remaining nice if they were already nice, areas that were up and coming falling into disrepair and getting worse. DC proper would likely become separated into the "no-go" crime infested areas and older established good areas remaining more or less decent by attracting whatever is left of urban wealthy, professionals, tourists and students, and foreigners and rich kids coming for their political "rotations". DC may become what it was in early 2000s. Prices are unlikely to fall to these levels because of inflation alone and the fact that if they fall so far down there is bound to be investor activity propping it up. RE prices go a bit lower, but there is floor on prices.

Scenario 2: Apocalypse. DC gets abandoned as a seat of the government with most of the government completely dismantled. It become a shadow of itself and even worse than the 90s. Think Philadelphia skid row that makes so many Fentanyl despair videos. Older money areas like Gtown, Kalorama, Dupont and parts of Foggy Bottom likely remaining somewhat ok but having to use more security and police to cater to the trickle of tourists visiting the "ruins", students of Gtown and GWU, and a few rich people still clinging to their homes/lifestyle. Suburbs still surviving on whatever private sector jobs are still left with affluent areas becoming more or less gated communities, but RE prices in the entire DC metro go dramatically down.

Scenario 3: DC remains the same
Job losses might be offset with some influx of private capital opportunism not wanting what good exists in the area to go to complete waste. Federal buildings will be converted into condos where possible or demolished and rebuilt into residential/mixed use we already have in many newer areas. Construction brings extra jobs too. Tough on crime politics restore confidence of younger population to live there and increase tourism and traffic from suburbia for dining/entertainment. At some point re-hiring resumes whether Fed jobs are replaced by private industry or ramped up to a certain degree again. Some new companies can pop up trying to replace some lost government functions. Economically things remain more or less the same even with vast reduction of the government footprint. RE prices remain stable.

Scenario 4: DC booms
On a very positive note there is massive investment into DC empty premium areas, new tech campuses built inside abandoned federal buildings and DC becomes a new tech hub re-employing all the educated population let go in mass layoffs, plus attracting more people to move into the area. Favorable tax laws for businesses implemented in the District (getting special status) bringing private capital and foreign investment. Suburbs boom as a result of this too with families still wanting their SFHs and some spillover into the biotech in MD and tech/fintech in VA. RE prices go up.

Which scenario do you think is more likely in the next several years?

#1. CRE is already being hit very hard as an industry and CRE in DC is going to be hit even harder than other areas with the DOGE sell off. If you add tariffs, high labor costs, and a dearth of jobs to the mix it would be absurd to count on developers swooping in with big redevelopment plans. Trump’s golden visa program could also negatively impact developers, since it opens up an alternative path to citizenship that circumvents the need for investment (where citizenship is the priority, not returns). Residential in currently well heeled outskirts will probably fair ok and could look similar to what happened in the chicago burbs. It could fall, but mostly remain flat because sales will slow to anemic levels (only owners who need to sell to move for a job or to get out of a mortgage will sell).

[Anonymous]

I find OP amusing, because they think the suburbs will be fine no matter what. It’s not like there’s a moat around DC and job losses will spread and spread. No tourists in the suburbs.