Future of DC metro

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:3. There will be some messy years, but the arc of real estate is long and it bends towards major existing investments. (Apologies to Dr. King).

I cackled, but yes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:#2. Trump will move the seat of government to a red state, building a white palace for himself to rule from.

I’m afraid it’s this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The metro is gross. No one I know takes it. Everyone drives or has a driver.

Eh. But if the point of comparison is the BART or even the subway then it looks pretty good. But if it does become a tech fiefdom then they may have company buses like they do in SV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The metro is gross. No one I know takes it. Everyone drives or has a driver.

Eh. But if the point of comparison is the BART or even the subway then it looks pretty good. But if it does become a tech fiefdom then they may have company buses like they do in SV.

If DC is to become a tech "fiefdom", which tech "lord" is going to inherit it?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I believe that Northern VA will become the Silicon Valley of the East. Right now, there is so much tech investment in the area. I also think that the rest of the DMV will fine, though they will look different.

It will depend on the status of DC and any changes to its business and tax laws. Federal buildings are being sold, what comes there will be determined by internal politics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He will basically rule from Mar-a-lago and expect everyone to come there.

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/trump/2025/01/17/trump-to-spend-more-time-at-mar-a-lago-palm-beach-florida/77666771007/

He is an old man and hates the cold.

this doesn't mean he is relocating the entire government to mar-a-lago It's an RE agent article fluffing up FL. Biden managed to spend a good chunk of his time in his DE beach house too, nobody called it a "second white house".

Also would be hypocritical given Palm Beach is one of the most expensive enclaves in the entire country which makes DC look like rural Louisiana in terms of prices. This would just give an excuse to his opponents to "drain the swamp" of the Palm Beach, political leverage to stroke growing discontent from working class. Ironically also resplendent with the infamous Epstein activity.. A low hanging fruit.

Mar a Lago was built to serve as the second White House. That's just a fact.

"Mar-a-Lago was built for the businesswoman and socialite Marjorie Merriweather Post between 1924 and 1927, during the Florida land boom. At the time of her death in 1973, Post bequeathed the property to the National Park Service,[6] hoping it could be used for state visits or as a Winter White House. However, because the costs of maintaining the property exceeded the funds provided by Post, and because it was difficult to secure the facility,[a] the property was returned to the Post Foundation by act of Congress 96-586 on 23 December 1980.[7][8]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar-a-Lago

Palm Beach is an incredibly wealthy enclave. But just over the bridge is West Palm Beach and it is not. The support functions would be located there. People could live from Jupiter in the north to Ft. Lauderdale in the south. Most would be living west of 95 and the turnpike. So he could relocate there pretty easily.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I believe that Northern VA will become the Silicon Valley of the East. Right now, there is so much tech investment in the area. I also think that the rest of the DMV will fine, though they will look different.

Zero chance. Point me to the universities that will feed it. Answer? Zero.

[Anonymous]

Scenario 1 but Maryland and DC proper will be hit much harder than Northern Virginia. It’s a company town with the government being the company. Nobody lives here for anything but proximity to work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I believe that Northern VA will become the Silicon Valley of the East. Right now, there is so much tech investment in the area. I also think that the rest of the DMV will fine, though they will look different.

Zero chance. Point me to the universities that will feed it. Answer? Zero.

People who graduated these universities around Silicon Valley are already here. People graduating all types of top universities in the country and the world had been working and living in DC metro for very long time. And we do have several universities with 2 of them walking(easy biking) distance to DC business area. Gtown and GWU can easily position themselves for training people for these jobs whatever they are. And their students will have easy internship commutes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think it will be a mix of 1 and 3. Some areas won’t see much of a decline, but I don’t believe private industry will fill the gap. There will also be losses due to a reduction in government size. What people often overlook is how much the federal government still impacts private industry. I believe some parts of NOVA, MoCo, and areas of DC will remain stable, but east of the river—PG, Charles County, and outer MoCo/East MoCo—will lose their pandemic gains and revert to pre-pandemic prices. Overall, it will be tough, no matter how you look at it.

Yep.

[Anonymous]

I think the freight train of mass firings is starting to slow down with some agencies starting to rescind the layoffs for some employees?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think the freight train of mass firings is starting to slow down with some agencies starting to rescind the layoffs for some employees?

I hope you're right but the next layoffs may actually be done through the large scale RIFs that each department is planning and thus they may actually stick since they might be legal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I believe that Northern VA will become the Silicon Valley of the East. Right now, there is so much tech investment in the area. I also think that the rest of the DMV will fine, though they will look different.

Zero chance. Point me to the universities that will feed it. Answer? Zero.

Hopkins, College Park and UVA are all close enough to become major feeders for a Silicon Valley East Coast. All three are major research universities, especially the first one and Hopkins already has a sizable presence in/near DC.

As for the future of the metro area, one only needs to look at Baltimore, Philadelphia and the rust belt cities to know cities absolutely can wither away. What does it mean for DC? Well, the Fed is still here and it's not going anywhere, even if it drastically downsizes. Which I do expect will happen. And it's not just the downsizing, is the elimination of funding for so many NGOs and non profits and research think tanks that will also have implications for the local housing markets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I believe that Northern VA will become the Silicon Valley of the East. Right now, there is so much tech investment in the area. I also think that the rest of the DMV will fine, though they will look different.

Zero chance. Point me to the universities that will feed it. Answer? Zero.

The strangest comment...VT and GMU are opening satellite campuses near Amazon (I think VT is open) in NoVA. UMD, JHU, Georgetown, UVA all would be considered feeder schools, UMD in particular.

I believe the DC area is the 3rd largest recipient of VC money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I believe that Northern VA will become the Silicon Valley of the East. Right now, there is so much tech investment in the area. I also think that the rest of the DMV will fine, though they will look different.

Zero chance. Point me to the universities that will feed it. Answer? Zero.

Hopkins, College Park and UVA are all close enough to become major feeders for a Silicon Valley East Coast. All three are major research universities, especially the first one and Hopkins already has a sizable presence in/near DC.

As for the future of the metro area, one only needs to look at Baltimore, Philadelphia and the rust belt cities to know cities absolutely can wither away. What does it mean for DC? Well, the Fed is still here and it's not going anywhere, even if it drastically downsizes. Which I do expect will happen. And it's not just the downsizing, is the elimination of funding for so many NGOs and non profits and research think tanks that will also have implications for the local housing markets.

Not really understanding this comment. Neither Baltimore or Philadelphia has withered away...and then you have cities like Pittsburgh that have undergone a massive renaissance over the last 30 years.