Effect of federal government reductions in MoCo

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They will not pull through. The economy here will collapse if the admin actually accomplishes these goals. The job losses in the DC metro area (both direct and indirect) from reducing federal employment by around 50% will be around 1 million. The total employment in the DC metro area is only around 3.36 Million. So the entire DC metro area will lose around 30 of the employment base if these nut jobs accomplish their goals. It will be a bloodbath and MD will be more severely impacted than VA. NOVA at least has a substantial number of ugly data centers to offset some of the losses to the local government tax base.

+1 MoCo has done so little to shore up its economy. Now it will pay dearly for that. Will go from bad to worse.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think not enough people are talking about MoCo specifically. I work for a federal contractor in MoCo and numerous contracts have been terminated. Several of the USAID contractors are in MoCo. The top 2 employers in MoCo are NIH and FDA. Other top employers includes NOAA, NIST, and prominent government contractors with these agencies.

Walter Reed also employs hundreds of civilians and contractors.

I read about a hospital where the radiology department ALL took the fork. So now there's no Radiologists. Dumbass Shadow President Musk.

WR has very limited specialists right now and you often get referred out BUT they do have Radiologists (as someone whose gotten lots of scans over the past few years and some recently). Its a ghost town most days when you go in and most appointments are virtual, including things that shouldn't be. They either ignore issues or throw drugs at you. AI might be useful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Nice try fear mongers, but some basic math is in order here. Only 7% of all federal employees live in DC. Another 6% live in Maryland. So the max number of federal jobs that could possibly be lost in each location is 140,000 and 120,000 respectively. And, assuming 50% are lost, that’s 70k and 60k.

I pay about $12,000/year in real estate taxes. 60k * $12k is $720 million. Fairfax County's budget is $3 billion. 25% of your revenue is missing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nice try fear mongers, but some basic math is in order here. Only 7% of all federal employees live in DC. Another 6% live in Maryland. So the max number of federal jobs that could possibly be lost in each location is 140,000 and 120,000 respectively. And, assuming 50% are lost, that’s 70k and 60k.

I pay about $12,000/year in real estate taxes. 60k * $12k is $720 million. Fairfax County's budget is $3 billion. 25% of your revenue is missing.

Look at these people from Virginia commenting on posts about MoCo. They have such envy for Maryland they can't help but post in them. There should be rules about posting about unrelated states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Nice try fear mongers, but some basic math is in order here. Only 7% of all federal employees live in DC. Another 6% live in Maryland. So the max number of federal jobs that could possibly be lost in each location is 140,000 and 120,000 respectively. And, assuming 50% are lost, that’s 70k and 60k.

I pay about $12,000/year in real estate taxes. 60k * $12k is $720 million. Fairfax County's budget is $3 billion. 25% of your revenue is missing.

Look at these people from Virginia commenting on posts about MoCo. They have such envy for Maryland they can't help but post in them. There should be rules about posting about unrelated states.

If you think budgeting in Montgomery County is radically different than Fairfax County, you shouldn't be involved in this discussion.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many are two-income families, highly educated, they can pull through. I wish it weren’t happening however, it’s an atrocity what is being done by eeeeel and trumps.

This is true and will save them. Every fed I know is incredibly smart and went to a top US college. It's not like layoffs at the mid-western factory. The point is to piss off Fed Workers and make them join the private sector.

This is pure delusion. The private sector largely does not want to hire people who have been working in public service for almost their entire career. The laziness, bureaucracy, and general slowness of many Fed workers is completely unpalatable to private companies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many are two-income families, highly educated, they can pull through. I wish it weren’t happening however, it’s an atrocity what is being done by eeeeel and trumps.

This is true and will save them. Every fed I know is incredibly smart and went to a top US college. It's not like layoffs at the mid-western factory. The point is to piss off Fed Workers and make them join the private sector.

This is pure delusion. The private sector largely does not want to hire people who have been working in public service for almost their entire career. The laziness, bureaucracy, and general slowness of many Fed workers is completely unpalatable to private companies.

This sounds like DOGE copium. Pure nonsense.

The private sector loves to hire feds who work at the Fed, Treasury, GAO, regulators, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many are two-income families, highly educated, they can pull through. I wish it weren’t happening however, it’s an atrocity what is being done by eeeeel and trumps.

This is true and will save them. Every fed I know is incredibly smart and went to a top US college. It's not like layoffs at the mid-western factory. The point is to piss off Fed Workers and make them join the private sector.

This is pure delusion. The private sector largely does not want to hire people who have been working in public service for almost their entire career. The laziness, bureaucracy, and general slowness of many Fed workers is completely unpalatable to private companies.

This sounds like DOGE copium. Pure nonsense.

The private sector loves to hire feds who work at the Fed, Treasury, GAO, regulators, etc.

I agree. I just don't know where all the scientists will go. How will the private sector absorb them?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will not pull through. The economy here will collapse if the admin actually accomplishes these goals. The job losses in the DC metro area (both direct and indirect) from reducing federal employment by around 50% will be around 1 million. The total employment in the DC metro area is only around 3.36 Million. So the entire DC metro area will lose around 30 of the employment base if these nut jobs accomplish their goals. It will be a bloodbath and MD will be more severely impacted than VA. NOVA at least has a substantial number of ugly data centers to offset some of the losses to the local government tax base.

I absolutely hate the data centers, but this seems like the only viable way to mitigate the damage to the local economy at this point. Approving another 50M sq feet of data centers would generate around 1 billion in local tax revenue, and create approximately 10k full time jobs after they are built. The tax revenue could be used to create another 5k FTE position through local government employment. If you account for indirect employment due to the multiplier effect 50M sq feet of data center should generate at least 20k new jobs. This could likely offset most of the job losses in Loudon and PWC. However, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria are also screwed.

Does local government need another 5000 FTEs? Why don't you use that money to hire a few FTEs to drive economic development?

The DC metro area is going to lose 1 million jobs, 30% of the employment base. To the extent they can offset employment losses with additional data center tax revenue, they absolutely should.

Someone said I was out of touch that local governments would try to increase in size as their budgets shrank. Government always thinks of itself as a make work jobs program.

If you are losing a million jobs, adding 5000 is pissing into the wind. Use that money to diversify your economy instead.

The paradox is that property assessments were just released in Maryland. Assessments have sky-rocketed and I see some municipalities seeing what on paper is a windfall without considering that their residents are in big trouble. They having a big appetite for capital spending without considering that this is a good time to bunker down.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They will not pull through. The economy here will collapse if the admin actually accomplishes these goals. The job losses in the DC metro area (both direct and indirect) from reducing federal employment by around 50% will be around 1 million. The total employment in the DC metro area is only around 3.36 Million. So the entire DC metro area will lose around 30 of the employment base if these nut jobs accomplish their goals. It will be a bloodbath and MD will be more severely impacted than VA. NOVA at least has a substantial number of ugly data centers to offset some of the losses to the local government tax base.

+1 and sad to agree but I do. MoCo Council sat around for the last decade watching businesses leave and doing barely anything to attract new businesses even to “turnkey” locations like DTSS, complete with an empty Discovery building and metro only two blocks away. Repeated in Rockville and Wheaton and parts of Gaithersburg.

Lord help us. This is the death blow to MoCo.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Many are two-income families, highly educated, they can pull through. I wish it weren’t happening however, it’s an atrocity what is being done by eeeeel and trumps.

This is true and will save them. Every fed I know is incredibly smart and went to a top US college. It's not like layoffs at the mid-western factory. The point is to piss off Fed Workers and make them join the private sector.

This is pure delusion. The private sector largely does not want to hire people who have been working in public service for almost their entire career. The laziness, bureaucracy, and general slowness of many Fed workers is completely unpalatable to private companies.

Private sector employee here and this is ridiculous. In some areas Fed workers with specific expertise - pharma, science, tax, etc - are in very high demand … usually. But we have a double whammy right now. The private sector isn’t doing a lot of hiring. Winter is coming and it’s going to be bad for a long time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will not pull through. The economy here will collapse if the admin actually accomplishes these goals. The job losses in the DC metro area (both direct and indirect) from reducing federal employment by around 50% will be around 1 million. The total employment in the DC metro area is only around 3.36 Million. So the entire DC metro area will lose around 30 of the employment base if these nut jobs accomplish their goals. It will be a bloodbath and MD will be more severely impacted than VA. NOVA at least has a substantial number of ugly data centers to offset some of the losses to the local government tax base.

I absolutely hate the data centers, but this seems like the only viable way to mitigate the damage to the local economy at this point. Approving another 50M sq feet of data centers would generate around 1 billion in local tax revenue, and create approximately 10k full time jobs after they are built. The tax revenue could be used to create another 5k FTE position through local government employment. If you account for indirect employment due to the multiplier effect 50M sq feet of data center should generate at least 20k new jobs. This could likely offset most of the job losses in Loudon and PWC. However, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria are also screwed.

Does local government need another 5000 FTEs? Why don't you use that money to hire a few FTEs to drive economic development?

The DC metro area is going to lose 1 million jobs, 30% of the employment base. To the extent they can offset employment losses with additional data center tax revenue, they absolutely should.

Someone said I was out of touch that local governments would try to increase in size as their budgets shrank. Government always thinks of itself as a make work jobs program.

If you are losing a million jobs, adding 5000 is pissing into the wind. Use that money to diversify your economy instead.

The paradox is that property assessments were just released in Maryland. Assessments have sky-rocketed and I see some municipalities seeing what on paper is a windfall without considering that their residents are in big trouble. They having a big appetite for capital spending without considering that this is a good time to bunker down.

Assessments are a racket. I bought a home for $550K in 2022 and the county tried to tell me that my property was assessed at $650 based on a property nearly twice the size of mine 1.5 miles away. I appealed and had to spend hours collecting evidence, comps, paperwork and the lowest they’d go was $615. I didn’t have money for an attorney otherwise I would have fought it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, it is going to be bad everywhere. MoCo will feel the economic impacts more quickly, but the loss of government-supported services will be felt all over the country.

people in many parts of the country don't seem to be disturbed by it, yet. what's going to happen to those high $ condos they decided was a good idea in MoCo?

Bolded 100%.. I’m sorry that for the first time in.. jeeze.. 50+ years(?) the federal bureaucracy and the “non-profot” raacket is being disrupted. Horrible timing if you work in this cartel currently… but a plurality of the country is tired of funding “non-profits” and “aid”. It has literally become a racket.

And spare me the “wELl SoFt PoWErOtHEr WIsE CHinA wILL tAKE OvEr”

Gurl, China was already funding all sorts of stuff as “aid” except they were smart enough to do this as predatory laons where when the third world countries inevitably default China will be able to create a modern silk-road.

While we in the U.S. have just done so much to earn “good will” with nothing on paper that we get in return..

Oh but the hundreds of NGOs and contractors the fed has funded, they’ve been VERRRRRRY happy until now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will not pull through. The economy here will collapse if the admin actually accomplishes these goals. The job losses in the DC metro area (both direct and indirect) from reducing federal employment by around 50% will be around 1 million. The total employment in the DC metro area is only around 3.36 Million. So the entire DC metro area will lose around 30 of the employment base if these nut jobs accomplish their goals. It will be a bloodbath and MD will be more severely impacted than VA. NOVA at least has a substantial number of ugly data centers to offset some of the losses to the local government tax base.

I absolutely hate the data centers, but this seems like the only viable way to mitigate the damage to the local economy at this point. Approving another 50M sq feet of data centers would generate around 1 billion in local tax revenue, and create approximately 10k full time jobs after they are built. The tax revenue could be used to create another 5k FTE position through local government employment. If you account for indirect employment due to the multiplier effect 50M sq feet of data center should generate at least 20k new jobs. This could likely offset most of the job losses in Loudon and PWC. However, Fairfax, Arlington, and Alexandria are also screwed.

Does local government need another 5000 FTEs? Why don't you use that money to hire a few FTEs to drive economic development?

The DC metro area is going to lose 1 million jobs, 30% of the employment base. To the extent they can offset employment losses with additional data center tax revenue, they absolutely should.

Someone said I was out of touch that local governments would try to increase in size as their budgets shrank. Government always thinks of itself as a make work jobs program.

If you are losing a million jobs, adding 5000 is pissing into the wind. Use that money to diversify your economy instead.

The paradox is that property assessments were just released in Maryland. Assessments have sky-rocketed and I see some municipalities seeing what on paper is a windfall without considering that their residents are in big trouble. They having a big appetite for capital spending without considering that this is a good time to bunker down.

When times are good, government adds new programs. When you get an economic downturn, the government needs to increase the services it offers. The government always needs more money.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yeah, it is going to be bad everywhere. MoCo will feel the economic impacts more quickly, but the loss of government-supported services will be felt all over the country.

people in many parts of the country don't seem to be disturbed by it, yet. what's going to happen to those high $ condos they decided was a good idea in MoCo?

Bolded 100%.. I’m sorry that for the first time in.. jeeze.. 50+ years(?) the federal bureaucracy and the “non-profot” raacket is being disrupted. Horrible timing if you work in this cartel currently… but a plurality of the country is tired of funding “non-profits” and “aid”. It has literally become a racket.

And spare me the “wELl SoFt PoWErOtHEr WIsE CHinA wILL tAKE OvEr”

Gurl, China was already funding all sorts of stuff as “aid” except they were smart enough to do this as predatory laons where when the third world countries inevitably default China will be able to create a modern silk-road.

While we in the U.S. have just done so much to earn “good will” with nothing on paper that we get in return..

Oh but the hundreds of NGOs and contractors the fed has funded, they’ve been VERRRRRRY happy until now.

When I hear that good will argument, I just mention Afghanistan. How much did we dump into that country to create a radical theocracy?