EPA will grant California the right to ban sales of new gas cars by 2035

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

EV market is changing quickly. The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox is priced at $25,500 and that price is based off the battery price of 2024. In 3 years EV will likely be 25-35% cheaper vs comparable gas powered cars with a range of 400 miles. EVs are really easy to build and nothing sell cars like price.

If you are a never electric think of every EV on the road as reducing the demand on gas and lowering price per gallon for you.

Doesn’t matter if the charging network is not there and repair and insurance costs remain high (any damage to battery pack from minor accident can total the car).

It is not clear to me why Democrats are so fixated on choosing technology instead of setting standards and letting the market find the most efficient technology.

This sort of market coercive policy will always be a failure under capitalism.

That's not really working. Americans love their gas guzzlers, Ford F150 and big SUVs.

Sometimes, the government does need to intervene rather than allow market forces to direct. If we let market forces dictate everything, we'd still have dangerous working conditions, slaves picking cotton, and segregation in schools. It was only due to government intervention that these things no longer exist. Or maybe some people do want to go back to these times. IDK... sometimes, it's hard to tell.

The government has been intervening in the market to push cheaper gas for decades. Gas-powered cars are not even remotely "free market in action."

[Anonymous]

Automakers Thrived in the Pandemic. Many Are Now Struggling.
Changing technology, political turmoil and competition from China are cutting into profits and forcing carmakers to cut jobs and close factories.
A few years ago, automakers were celebrating record profits as the pandemic created shortages of new cars, allowing them to raise prices. Now the hangover is setting in.

Nissan, the Japanese automaker, is laying off 9,000 employees. Volkswagen is considering closing factories in Germany for the first time. The chief executive of the U.S. and European automaker Stellantis, which owns Jeep, Peugeot, Fiat and other brands, quit after sales tumbled. Even luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes-Benz are struggling.

Each carmaker has its own problems, but there are some common threads. They include a tricky and expensive technological transition, political turmoil, rising protectionism and the emergence of a new class of fast-growing Chinese carmakers. The many woes raise questions about the future of companies that are a critical source of jobs in many Western and Asian countries.

Many of these problems have been apparent for years but became less pressing during the pandemic, lulling some automakers into complacency. When shortages of semiconductors and other components slowed production and limited inventory, carmakers found it easy to raise prices.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/business/automakers-trouble.html

The car manufacturers are at a turning point. If they do not adapt they will end up in the trash heap of history. EVs are a lot easier to build vs ICE. EVs take 1/2 the man hours to make vs ICE. EVs are basically a battery, motors for the wheels and software. This makes the barriers to entry a lot lower. This allowed Tesla and the Chinese to leap ahead of the big car manufacturers who really weren’t do anything with EVs.

Now the manufacturing levels are at a point where serious money and engineering are being applied to the manufacturing and design improvements- ie it is no longer a proof of concept. The battery energy density is increasing at 20% a year, price of the battery is falling by 30-40% per year, weight of the battery is falling by 20% a year, motor size and weight is falling by 30-40% a year, etc. The improvements are quite dramatic.

Look at an EV ten years ago. Five years from now it will be a different world with EVs. In ten who knows but some of these big manufacturers will be bell up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

I would love TX to ban EVs as a big F U to Musk, who gave a big F U to CA which gave him a ton of subsidies for Tesla.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

I'm a long time Subaru owner. We also have a bZ4x we just leased this past summer.

Subarus have a ways to go for their EVs. The Solterra (and Toyota bZ4x which is the same as the solterra) isn't as good as a Tesla, Hyundai. It's rather disappointing.

But, I do think the EV tech is going to change a lot in the next 3 to 5 years. That's why we only leased the EV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hopefully, Trump (or his EPA) will overturn this.

You should be allowed to buy any car you want.

Even if the car emits toxic fumes? Why do you think your car has to pass a smog check? Is that too much regulation, too? You want your kids to grow up breathing toxic fumes, and not having clean air?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:As of November 2023 26.7% of new car sales in California were zero emission cars. The technology is changing so fast that 10 years is equivalent 30 years.

This is shaping up to be like the introduction of cell phones and digital music. Cell phones first came on line in 1983 by 2000 they were affordable for most people.

+1 CA is on the forefront of clean emissions. I remember growing up in SoCal and seeing the yellow haze over the valley (I lived near the coast), and kids getting asthma attacks during outside PE.

When I go back now, I don't see the yellow haze much anymore, thanks to a R CA governor who implemented tougher emissions standards.

The air quality is still not that great, hence the need for tougher emissions standards. They care about the future. Rs don't. I think that's the difference -- Rs care about the here and now and dam* our kids' futures, while liberals care about our kids' future well being, and the poor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

That's not a problem of the EV industry, that's a problem stemming from the fact that Ford and the other big US automakers just suck at engineering. Other countries are largely eating our lunch on EV innovation. The US EV makers who are doing well are the ones who started out as EV companies as opposed to internal-combustion carmakers trying to retrofit to EV.

In term of domestic OEMs, Ford and GM have significantly cut EV production targets and scaled back corporate strategy while Rivian and Lucid show no path to profitability. But this is not just a US story, the other major players in European EV production VW and Mercedes have announced similar production roll back plans. All have cited lower than anticipated demand.

As a result, the only car manufacturers making EVs at scale and are committed to continuing making them at scale are Tesla, Hyundai, BYD and other Chinese brands.

I guess according to you basically every automaker in the world is lying and suck at engineering instead of these few.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

EV market is changing quickly. The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox is priced at $25,500 and that price is based off the battery price of 2024. In 3 years EV will likely be 25-35% cheaper vs comparable gas powered cars with a range of 400 miles. EVs are really easy to build and nothing sell cars like price.

If you are a never electric think of every EV on the road as reducing the demand on gas and lowering price per gallon for you.

Doesn’t matter if the charging network is not there and repair and insurance costs remain high (any damage to battery pack from minor accident can total the car).

It is not clear to me why Democrats are so fixated on choosing technology instead of setting standards and letting the market find the most efficient technology.

This sort of market coercive policy will always be a failure under capitalism.

The market hasn't found much more significant efficiencies or improvement in gas-powered cars in decades. In terms of efficiency, electronic fuel injection and control systems beginning in the 1980s, in terms of emissions, the catalytic converter in 1975. Beyond that, it's been very minor improvements of a few percent here and there for the last 40 years. It would take a totally different ICE technology like the Astron Aerospace Omega engine to make any kind of new breakthrough - and it could take more than a decade or more to actually see it go from prototype and concept into any kind of meaningful production.

EVs are shattering barriers and seeing massive double digit plus percentage improvements all throughout their systems year after year. That technology is booming.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

That's not a problem of the EV industry, that's a problem stemming from the fact that Ford and the other big US automakers just suck at engineering. Other countries are largely eating our lunch on EV innovation. The US EV makers who are doing well are the ones who started out as EV companies as opposed to internal-combustion carmakers trying to retrofit to EV.

In term of domestic OEMs, Ford and GM have significantly cut EV production targets and scaled back corporate strategy while Rivian and Lucid show no path to profitability. But this is not just a US story, the other major players in European EV production VW and Mercedes have announced similar production roll back plans. All have cited lower than anticipated demand.

As a result, the only car manufacturers making EVs at scale and are committed to continuing making them at scale are Tesla, Hyundai, BYD and other Chinese brands.

I guess according to you basically every automaker in the world is lying and suck at engineering instead of these few.

Pointing at companies like Rivian that only targeted a niche segment, or that some companies are scaling back does not tell a full, or true story. Overall, the global EV market is still growing, and fast - even beyond market analysts' expectations, November 2024 sales broke records. The Chinese market in particular is booming.

https://www.carscoops.com/2024/12/global-ev-sales-keep-a-steady-rise-mostly-driven-by-china/

By the way, that fact also knocks the climate change skeptics who like to use China for whataboutisms down a peg.

Costs of EV batteries, motors and other components continue to come down, research and innovation continues. The challenges here in the US are more about lack of support for building out the charging infrastructure and other things, and somehow Republicans think it would somehow be wrong or unfair to do anything to help the EV industry, despite the fact that gasoline has, every year, been getting billions in subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives for DECADES. The fact that Republicans oppose EVs while supporting massive subsidies for gasoline tells you all you need to know about the effects of lobbying and campaign finance, with Big Oil being the clear heavyweights. That is NOT "free market."

[Anonymous]

Hopefully, Trump (or his EPA) will overturn this.

You should be allowed to buy any car you want.

You should be allowed to swing your fists around wildly in public.

Until it has an impact on someone (like bloodying their nose.)

Internal combustion engines have a harmful impact on air quality and contribute significantly to asthma and respiratory disease, to anthropogenic climate change, which is making storms worse and is damaging infrastructure and causing flooding and desertification and displacing people and many other harmful impacts.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

That's not a problem of the EV industry, that's a problem stemming from the fact that Ford and the other big US automakers just suck at engineering. Other countries are largely eating our lunch on EV innovation. The US EV makers who are doing well are the ones who started out as EV companies as opposed to internal-combustion carmakers trying to retrofit to EV.

In term of domestic OEMs, Ford and GM have significantly cut EV production targets and scaled back corporate strategy while Rivian and Lucid show no path to profitability. But this is not just a US story, the other major players in European EV production VW and Mercedes have announced similar production roll back plans. All have cited lower than anticipated demand.

As a result, the only car manufacturers making EVs at scale and are committed to continuing making them at scale are Tesla, Hyundai, BYD and other Chinese brands.

I guess according to you basically every automaker in the world is lying and suck at engineering instead of these few.

Pointing at companies like Rivian that only targeted a niche segment, or that some companies are scaling back does not tell a full, or true story. Overall, the global EV market is still growing, and fast - even beyond market analysts' expectations, November 2024 sales broke records. The Chinese market in particular is booming.

https://www.carscoops.com/2024/12/global-ev-sales-keep-a-steady-rise-mostly-driven-by-china/

By the way, that fact also knocks the climate change skeptics who like to use China for whataboutisms down a peg.

Costs of EV batteries, motors and other components continue to come down, research and innovation continues. The challenges here in the US are more about lack of support for building out the charging infrastructure and other things, and somehow Republicans think it would somehow be wrong or unfair to do anything to help the EV industry, despite the fact that gasoline has, every year, been getting billions in subsidies, tax breaks and other incentives for DECADES. The fact that Republicans oppose EVs while supporting massive subsidies for gasoline tells you all you need to know about the effects of lobbying and campaign finance, with Big Oil being the clear heavyweights. That is NOT "free market."

Yep gas would be at $12-$14 a gallon without subsidies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

I would love TX to ban EVs as a big F U to Musk, who gave a big F U to CA which gave him a ton of subsidies for Tesla.

Why would you want state governments to use their power to suppress the free market? Because what, you're mad about his tweets?

[Anonymous]

Solar power policy in CA is a so f'd up. There is no way this is going to be enforced in 10 years.

So many people in CA started installing solar panels on their roofs in CA after doing a cost analysis of how much they cost vs what they would get back selling surplus power.

Then in a bait and switch, the state Public Utilities Commission in late 2022 slashed by about 75% the rate that utilities pay homeowners with new solar panels when they sell surplus power to the grid. The rate structure went into effect for solar applicants beginning last April. So demand for solar panels has now plunged by 80%. And Gov. Newsom just vetoed another bill that would benefit schools using solar power because it wouldn't be fair for poor people who don't have solar power to pay more for electricity from power companies if so many people are using solar power.

This article from the LA Times explore another mess that the infrastructure isn't yet available in CA to capture all the solar power.

"A new analysis by Los Angeles Times staff writer Melody Petersen found major problems in the state’s current solar economy. Oversupply of solar power is causing California’s operators to regularly halt production or even pay electricity traders to take power off their hands. Sometimes, other states snag the extra energy for cheap. Meanwhile, California residents, businesses and factories pay around two to three times as much for power as the national average.
There are a range of factors at play, but a key takeaway from the Times’ analysis is that California’s most-in-the-nation solar panel buildup isn’t enough for an ideal alternative energy model. Millions of dollars of electricity go to waste because the infrastructure isn’t in place to store or move all the solar power"

[Anonymous]

Access to charging, especially on longer trips, is still a huge barrier for a lot of consumers, us included. Currently, the price of gas is worth the convenience to just pull up, top off, and be on our way.

[Anonymous]

Does our country even have the ability to produce all the electricity required to power all these cars?