EPA will grant California the right to ban sales of new gas cars by 2035

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

[Anonymous]

California will be fine. They are good at big public works projects. This is just part of that. The amount of giant solar, wind, geothermal, and bio projects you see in rural areas of CA is just wild.

Chevron is shutting down their giant refinery next to the Port of LA/LB that makes 10% of California’s gasoline. The port is installing a giant railway so they can reduce the number of trucks that need to drive in to a minuscule amount. The writing is on the wall.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

EV market is changing quickly. The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox is priced at $25,500 and that price is based off the battery price of 2024. In 3 years EV will likely be 25-35% cheaper vs comparable gas powered cars with a range of 400 miles. EVs are really easy to build and nothing sell cars like price.

If you are a never electric think of every EV on the road as reducing the demand on gas and lowering price per gallon for you.

If they are going to be so much cheaper, then there is no reason to ban the gas cars. No one will buy them.
The reality is consumers are rejecting electric cars. Car companies raise prices on gas models to meet the mandates and cover their losses on electrics.
However, if electrics are mandatory, then there will be no gas cars on which to raise prices to cover these losses. They will get more expensive not cheaper.

And during the election Harris said she wasn't going to tell you what type of car you have to drive. Another lie.

Most consumers are not rejecting them. Almost everyone I know has one and they are at least every 3d car I see on the road. Our hybrid (gas/electric) gets over 60 mpg. We didn't buy full electric this time as we are not sure what's happening with the infrastructure for it given the Orange One taking office. But def would in the future.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hopefully, Trump (or his EPA) will overturn this.

You should be allowed to buy any car you want.

And suddenly the Republicans think states rights are bad. After decades of protecting states rights.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

No if you pay attention to the auto press you know they are scared sh#tless. The only market segment that showed growth were the EVs. The Chinese are way ahead with EVs. Here is what the CEO of Ford said

The CEO of one of America's biggest car companies has been driving a Chinese vehicle for six months, and he’s loving it.

Jim Farley, the CEO of Ford Motor Company, said Monday on “The Fully Charged Podcast” that for the past six months he’s been driving the Xiaomi Speed Ultra 7, the Chinese company’s first electric vehicle. Although he said he doesn’t like to talk much about the competition, he praised both the car and its manufacturer, Xiaomi.

"We flew one from Shanghai to Chicago, and I've been driving it for six months now,” Farley said. “And I don't want to give it up."

…
Beijing-based technology company Xiaomi is well-known in China for its smartphones, smartwatches, and headphones, among other tech products. Yet, in December 2023, the company expanded its reach to the auto industry by announcing the Xiaomi Speed Ultra 7, a luxury EV sedan that retails for about $30,000 (the price of a Nissan Leaf) and is available exclusively in China.

The car comes in three different models, the SU7, SU7 Pro, and SU7 Max, with the MAX reaching more than 500 miles on a single charge. For comparison, the Tesla Model S can run about 400 miles on a single charge.
…
It's fantastic. They sell 10,000, 20,000 a month. They're sold out for six months," Farley said. “That is an industry juggernaut and a consumer brand that is much stronger than car companies.”

…
To try to compete with Chinese EV makers, Farley two years ago created a small “Skunk Works” team full of top engineers focused on creating a low-cost EV platform. He also recently pivoted Ford’s EV efforts away from larger vehicles that require more expensive batteries.

In August, the Michigan-based car maker said it was setting aside its plans for a three-row electric SUV. It also delayed the production of its next electric pickup truck. Farley has also said he is open to collaboration with Chinese automakers, especially on batteries, which make up the bulk of the cost of EVs.

The Ford CEO said at a Morgan Stanley event in 2023 that China was the biggest threat to the U.S. car industry.

“I think we see the Chinese as the main competitor, not GM or Toyota,” he said at the event. “The Chinese are going to be the powerhouse.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-ceo-driving-competition-ev-010000414.html

[Anonymous]

Ford Is Already Cutting New EV Production
The company blames the 'rapidly deteriorating market conditions for electric vehicles.'
https://www.motor1.com/news/740842/ford-cuts-explorer-capri-ev-production/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

The other electrics are failures. Tesla is the only car that matters. Europe does have good models, but they are much more expensive, around 200k.

Not really. The market for the "small SUV EV" is the hottest EV market right now and Tesla was behind the ball on that (their SUV is not that small and is incredibly stupid looking). Hyundai, Nissan, Kia, Chevy, Volkswagen, and Subaru are all offering more consumer-friendly options in this segment. Tesla will hopefully come out with a non-stupid small SUV to compete -- the more competition the better. But that's the kind of vehicle most consumers want -- a compact SUV that sits up higher than a sedan, has a hatch back, and has good storage and head room.

If I were buying an EV this year I'd be leaning towards the Ioniq 5 from Hyundai, though I want to see what the 2025 Volkswagen id.4 is like. I like Teslas but they don't make sense for a family of 4 with kids who play sports.

If you pay attention to auto press, there is far more to come in this segment and there are lots of competitors in the market. Also, as the EV market grows, it's unrealistic to expect that most EV consumers will choose an EV-only brand like Tesla. Consumers are habitual. In order for EVs to get to 30-40% of the market, you are going to have to capture consumers who are brand-loyal to BMW or Subaru or whatever, so you need those companies to be offering appealing EVs for those customers (I have high hopes for the Subaru Solterra -- Subaru owners are a prime market for EVs because they tend to be liberal and eco-conscious, and if they can solve their manufacturing issues with EVs and produce a decent competitor in this space, I think it will lead to a big swing toward EVs).

If you pay attention to auto press you also know all the domestic manufacturers are massively scaling back their EV plans because EVs simply are not yet catching on in the full size SUV/Truck market in the US market. You would also know that Toyota-by far and away the sharpest worldwide auto marker IMHO-has strongly resisted investment in all electric eschewing all electric for a hybrid approach. You would also know that Toyota's share price has performed very nicely the last five years as a consequence of forgoing EVs while the the big traditional manufacturers, especially in Europe but also including Honda (Toyota's closest comp), are all under duress due to their EV investments (I ignore the Koreans due to the weird corporate conglomerates over there). You would also know that VW is a total mess right now and they have a budding labor issue on top of the German electricity problems to deal with. Tesla is Tesla.

EVs definitely have a role to play in a multifaceted approach. I like them. But mandating is just stupid and unnecessarily poking the bear (what happens when Texas, GA and FL ban EVs in response?). If the tech is superior then it will win out, if it isn't, then you're just messing up the market by misallocating capital.

That's not a problem of the EV industry, that's a problem stemming from the fact that Ford and the other big US automakers just suck at engineering. Other countries are largely eating our lunch on EV innovation. The US EV makers who are doing well are the ones who started out as EV companies as opposed to internal-combustion carmakers trying to retrofit to EV.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant the state the right to set stronger climate rules for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks as soon as next week.
The Environmental Protection Agency plans to grant California permission to set stronger climate rules for cars and SUVs — a move that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to reverse — according to two people briefed on the matter.
Ask your climate questions. With the help of generative Al, we'll try to deliver answers based on our published reporting.

The EPA intends to issue California a waiver as soon as next week to enforce its rule aimed at banning sales of new gasoline-powered cars in the state by 2035, said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly. The Trump administration will probably try to revoke the waiver, although those efforts could run into legal obstacles.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/12/13/epa-california-climate-cars-evs/

Looks like 11 other states will be included in this. Will be very good for Musk.

Not really. Tesla was hugely important for creating a market for EV. But there has been a lot of innovation since then and most of the major car companies are heading in that direction regardless. Much of Europe has adopted similar restrictions on the sale of new old-timey combustion engine vehicles. And these days, China is the biggest exporter of EV. Any car company that's all in for combustion engines in 2035 is doomed.

Actually many car companies that were going that way quickly are reversing course. Volvo is one example.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This market is changing so fast. The Chevy equinox is now cheaper vs the gas version. So the low end of car market (sub $30k) will see a lot of pressure from EVs.

The biggest segment not addressed is the 3 row SUV at comfortable price point vs gas. Hyundai and Kia have that now. The reviews are saying their SUV are the best regardless of gas or EV.

These newer cars are not very radical in design and are marketed to standard SUV market. Honda is having success selling the prologue. It’s not a rocket ship(0-60 in 5.8 vs 3 sec) but a lot of people want something that drives(and looks) like what they are use to driving. It’s a boring car segment but it is a big segment.

Battery price will drop another 30-40% this year and projections are saying it will continue for the next 5 years. The industry is just scaling up to size.

You are suggesting battery prices will go from 30k to 5k.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:California will be fine. They are good at big public works projects. This is just part of that. The amount of giant solar, wind, geothermal, and bio projects you see in rural areas of CA is just wild.

Chevron is shutting down their giant refinery next to the Port of LA/LB that makes 10% of California’s gasoline. The port is installing a giant railway so they can reduce the number of trucks that need to drive in to a minuscule amount. The writing is on the wall.

That is because California mandated mileage/emissions rules for trucks that made them too expensive. Companies were transporting via truck to Nevada then offloading to a regular truck that could do the rest of the delivery at a reasonable price.

[Anonymous]

EPA doesn't have the authority to ban the sale of gas cars, so they can't "grant" that authority to anyone else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:EPA doesn't have the authority to ban the sale of gas cars, so they can't "grant" that authority to anyone else.

Exactly this. Laughable that people here don’t understand this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Maryland is so stupid for joining this. The only thing that is going to happen is that used cars will get more expensive.

EV market is changing quickly. The 2025 Chevrolet Equinox is priced at $25,500 and that price is based off the battery price of 2024. In 3 years EV will likely be 25-35% cheaper vs comparable gas powered cars with a range of 400 miles. EVs are really easy to build and nothing sell cars like price.

If you are a never electric think of every EV on the road as reducing the demand on gas and lowering price per gallon for you.

Doesn’t matter if the charging network is not there and repair and insurance costs remain high (any damage to battery pack from minor accident can total the car).

It is not clear to me why Democrats are so fixated on choosing technology instead of setting standards and letting the market find the most efficient technology.

This sort of market coercive policy will always be a failure under capitalism.

That's not really working. Americans love their gas guzzlers, Ford F150 and big SUVs.

Sometimes, the government does need to intervene rather than allow market forces to direct. If we let market forces dictate everything, we'd still have dangerous working conditions, slaves picking cotton, and segregation in schools. It was only due to government intervention that these things no longer exist. Or maybe some people do want to go back to these times. IDK... sometimes, it's hard to tell.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:EPA doesn't have the authority to ban the sale of gas cars, so they can't "grant" that authority to anyone else.

No, but the EPA can allow states to set their own emission standards, which can include banning the sale of ICE cars.

BTW, a R governor from CA fought the fed EPA to reduce emissions in further.

https://www.edf.org/media/schwarzenegger-obama-act-california-clean-cars-program

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:EPA doesn't have the authority to ban the sale of gas cars, so they can't "grant" that authority to anyone else.

Take it up with Congress.

It's part of the Clean Air Act. Since 1970, EPA has had the authority and is responsible for setting national standards and overseeing the implementation of the law, with much of it delegated to states, but states can ask for waivers in order to implement standards stricter than what EPA sets. California asked for a stricter standard, and EPA is granting the waiver.