Another tropical storm expected to hit Florida as a hurricane

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Will this be "the big one" for Tampa?

My parents are in St. Pete and seem to think so. (Yes, they are on the road right now, to shelter with friends in Gainesville.) The warning sirens are blaring from state gov, media, etc. to evacuate and that there is going to be mass devastation - I don't know how much of it is 'real' or a response, as a precautionary measure, to the destruction from Helene. But yeah, they're making it seem like it could/will be and a direct hit on Tampa/St. Pete would be devastating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Milton is already a Cat 4 (nearly or STB Cat 5) but they're not saying that it will continue to strengthen as it continues over the Gulf? Why would this one not continue to strengthen as other hurricanes have done?

It may strengthen to a Cat 5 but then will weaken before landfall because of wind shear it will encounter. There are several factors that can weaken a hurricane: Dry air, Wind Shear, Land, Cooler Waters. It's predicted there will be some high wind shear that will cut into Milton before landfall, bringing it to category three or lower before landfall.

That would be enough to overcome the warm temperature of the water? I'm not arguing, I'm just surprised.

Yes, very much so. But it won't matter- the storm surge will start when its still a Cat 4/5 before landfall. The surge is the issue more so than the winds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

This is unconscionable. Putting the first responders lives at risk.

Please stop. It is recommended that people outside of flood and evacuation zones stay home. Even Jim Cantore says so. Some people decide to leave anyway - mostly if they are worried about their roofs or trees, or if they don't want to deal with power being out. But people outside of flood and evacuation zones, in strong houses, are often safest staying put - and not clogging up the road, where gas is scarce as are hotel rooms.

It is likely that they are going to expand the manditory evac zones. Everyone should be ready just in case and be prepared for a week+ with no water or electricity.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

This is unconscionable. Putting the first responders lives at risk.

Huh? My sister is in inland Hillsborough (New Tampa), not a flood or evacuation zone, and they've been told it's fine, almost encouraged, to stay put. The roads are clogged enough already with people under mandatory evac/flood zones, they don't need even more people on the roads. And hotels all over central FL are already filled up, it is not good to take a room from those who really need it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

This is unconscionable. Putting the first responders lives at risk.

Please stop. It is recommended that people outside of flood and evacuation zones stay home. Even Jim Cantore says so. Some people decide to leave anyway - mostly if they are worried about their roofs or trees, or if they don't want to deal with power being out. But people outside of flood and evacuation zones, in strong houses, are often safest staying put - and not clogging up the road, where gas is scarce as are hotel rooms.

That's debatable, so you two had best keep it courteous. The guidance will change. No one knows at this point where Milton will hit and whether its possible weakening right before landfall will makes things WORSE, not better, because weakening comes with WIDENING of the hurricane. So you either have a narrow swathe of total destruction... or you have a wide swathe of partial destruction. And it turns out the later costs a lot more in damages!!!

Stay vigilant. That's all.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Milton is already a Cat 4 (nearly or STB Cat 5) but they're not saying that it will continue to strengthen as it continues over the Gulf? Why would this one not continue to strengthen as other hurricanes have done?

It may strengthen to a Cat 5 but then will weaken before landfall because of wind shear it will encounter. There are several factors that can weaken a hurricane: Dry air, Wind Shear, Land, Cooler Waters. It's predicted there will be some high wind shear that will cut into Milton before landfall, bringing it to category three or lower before landfall.

That would be enough to overcome the warm temperature of the water? I'm not arguing, I'm just surprised.

In some ways the wind shear will make it worse. Right now it's developing into a very strong Cat 5 hurricane. But it has a very small eye, which means the extreme Cat 5 winds don't extend far. As it weaken into a likely Cat 3, the center will widen and become bigger. That's what will come ashore. And regardless of wind speed, the storm surge has already formed. With its likely trajectory, it's going to be a big problem for Tampa Bay in particular. The ground is already saturated. It's not good.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:In other news, it’s hurricane season and a hurricane will hit Florida.

+ million. I always have to laugh when people outside of Florida act surprised and caught unaware that hurricanes happen every year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Milton is already a Cat 4 (nearly or STB Cat 5) but they're not saying that it will continue to strengthen as it continues over the Gulf? Why would this one not continue to strengthen as other hurricanes have done?

It may strengthen to a Cat 5 but then will weaken before landfall because of wind shear it will encounter. There are several factors that can weaken a hurricane: Dry air, Wind Shear, Land, Cooler Waters. It's predicted there will be some high wind shear that will cut into Milton before landfall, bringing it to category three or lower before landfall.

That would be enough to overcome the warm temperature of the water? I'm not arguing, I'm just surprised.

Here is what the NHC just released at 11am. Good explanation.

“ Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today
with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow,
its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement
cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken
but grow larger. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a
much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air
entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in
Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical
transition, which should be complete by 96 h. ”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In other news, it’s hurricane season and a hurricane will hit Florida.

+ million. I always have to laugh when people outside of Florida act surprised and caught unaware that hurricanes happen every year.

What a pain in the a$$ though. You couldn't pay me enough to live in FL. And there's the awful issue of insurance.

No thanks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:In other news, it’s hurricane season and a hurricane will hit Florida.

+ million. I always have to laugh when people outside of Florida act surprised and caught unaware that hurricanes happen every year.

Except for the fact that Tampa/St Pete is still digging out from the damage from Helene. The double whammy is not good. The storm surge predicted would devastate Tampa Bay.

[Anonymous]

Milton is now a category 5.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/071558.shtml?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

Can they go weeks without power and days without water? That’s the real issue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

Can they go weeks without power and days without water? That’s the real issue.

Everyone with the resources to do it will go somewhere else if we don't have power or water for any significant amount of time. You don't need to evacuate before the storm to leave after it.

I think what people don''t seem willing to understand is that there is no perfect choice here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My parents live in Tampa and refuse to evacuate. They aren’t in a flood zone but I’m very stressed.

Can they go weeks without power and days without water? That’s the real issue.

I’m PP. Most ppl in their neighborhood are staying put, they say. They are ~40 ft above sea level. They have a stockpile of food and water.

[Anonymous]

I live in Hernando county. I am not in the flood zone, and I will be staying. I've prepared for a power outage as best I can.

However, I work in tampa, in an area an older area, and these people are not messing around. They are boarding up, people are leaving sometimes. It's not a joke. This has the possibility to be the big one that's always been talked about.