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Reply to "Another tropical storm expected to hit Florida as a hurricane"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Milton is already a Cat 4 (nearly or STB Cat 5) but they're not saying that it will continue to strengthen as it continues over the Gulf? Why would this one not continue to strengthen as other hurricanes have done? [/quote] It may strengthen to a Cat 5 but then will weaken before landfall because of wind shear it will encounter. There are several factors that can weaken a hurricane: Dry air, Wind Shear, Land, Cooler Waters. It's predicted there will be some high wind shear that will cut into Milton before landfall, bringing it to category three or lower before landfall. [/quote] That would be enough to overcome the warm temperature of the water? I'm not arguing, I'm just surprised. [/quote] Here is what the NHC just released at 11am. Good explanation. “ Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h. ” [/quote]
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