What are the odds of us getting out last choice? DCC

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’re zoned for Einstein and I personally don’t see a reason to choose Blair over Einstein outside of a magnet program.

OP here,

My other kid will put Einstein first, presumably get it, and then be done with the process. So, I'm not anti-Einstein at all.

But this kid is on a track to take calculus in 9th or 10th, and I understand that Blair offers more post-calculus math options. We'll live pretty much equidistant from Blair, Northwood and Einstein.

All schools, including Einstein can handle kids with Pre-Cal in 9th. How would your child take Calculus in 9th?

My kid isn't currently in MCPS.

So, they are taking pre-cal in 8th?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’re zoned for Einstein and I personally don’t see a reason to choose Blair over Einstein outside of a magnet program.

OP here,

My other kid will put Einstein first, presumably get it, and then be done with the process. So, I'm not anti-Einstein at all.

But this kid is on a track to take calculus in 9th or 10th, and I understand that Blair offers more post-calculus math options. We'll live pretty much equidistant from Blair, Northwood and Einstein.

All schools, including Einstein can handle kids with Pre-Cal in 9th. How would your child take Calculus in 9th?

My kid isn't currently in MCPS.

So, they are taking pre-cal in 8th?

Yes, it's not clear if it will transfer to MCPS.

[Anonymous]

OP, given your child's background I would think your child would get into at least Wheaton PLTW and has a really good chance at Blair although as you said it can be a roll of the dice sometimes. I do think your chances are higher coming from the DCC.

In this situation I would list Wheaton first then Einstein.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:PP above. I think this was the thread, though I’m sure it’s come up before.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1137291.page#25150285

I don't think we need to make the decision about which application program we like best now now. If he gets into multiple and has a choice, I'm sure I'll be back with questions, but the PP who said that no one's odds are great is correct, so I'm not worried about that now.

What we do need to decide in the near future is what to put on the DCC choice form.
Which is why I'm really asking about strategies for that form.

Does it make sense for someone whose home school isn't Blair to put Blair first?

[Anonymous]

No, the odds are really against you and it would be a waste.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don't ever recall hearing about anyone getting their 5th choice. And if you do, you can do the 2nd round to try again for a school you ranked higher.

+1
We did get Blair, out of bounds, in the lottery and it was DC's first choice. We have never heard of anyone else getting Blair in the lottery out of bounds though.

I had two kids get into Blair through the lottery. One in the first round and one in the second. We are zoned for Einstein. So it does happen!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP above. I think this was the thread, though I’m sure it’s come up before.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1137291.page#25150285

I don't think we need to make the decision about which application program we like best now now. If he gets into multiple and has a choice, I'm sure I'll be back with questions, but the PP who said that no one's odds are great is correct, so I'm not worried about that now.

What we do need to decide in the near future is what to put on the DCC choice form.
Which is why I'm really asking about strategies for that form.

Does it make sense for someone whose home school isn't Blair to put Blair first?

I’m the PP with two kids who got into Blair through the lottery. If you want Blair, put it first.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP, given your child's background I would think your child would get into at least Wheaton PLTW and has a really good chance at Blair although as you said it can be a roll of the dice sometimes. I do think your chances are higher coming from the DCC.

In this situation I would list Wheaton first then Einstein.

If it’s science and math you want, put Wheaton over Einstein for SURE.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We’re zoned for Einstein and I personally don’t see a reason to choose Blair over Einstein outside of a magnet program.

OP here,

My other kid will put Einstein first, presumably get it, and then be done with the process. So, I'm not anti-Einstein at all.

But this kid is on a track to take calculus in 9th or 10th, and I understand that Blair offers more post-calculus math options. We'll live pretty much equidistant from Blair, Northwood and Einstein.

No one takes calculus in 9th. Do you mean precalculus?

This makes no sense.

Why?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP above. I think this was the thread, though I’m sure it’s come up before.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1137291.page#25150285

I don't think we need to make the decision about which application program we like best now now. If he gets into multiple and has a choice, I'm sure I'll be back with questions, but the PP who said that no one's odds are great is correct, so I'm not worried about that now.

What we do need to decide in the near future is what to put on the DCC choice form.
Which is why I'm really asking about strategies for that form.

Does it make sense for someone whose home school isn't Blair to put Blair first?

I’m the PP with two kids who got into Blair through the lottery. If you want Blair, put it first.

+1. I would rank them Blair, Wheaton, Einstein, then Northwood or Kennedy or vice versa.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP, given your child's background I would think your child would get into at least Wheaton PLTW and has a really good chance at Blair although as you said it can be a roll of the dice sometimes. I do think your chances are higher coming from the DCC.

In this situation I would list Wheaton first then Einstein.

If it’s science and math you want, put Wheaton over Einstein for SURE.

Yeah, my kid really likes Einstein and is very happy they chose it, but even for my humanities-focused kid, math has been the weak spot.

They’re working hard to fill in the gaps that popped up the last year or two (I’m not sure the head if the math department slept at all last year, poor man), but there still wouldn’t be a lot available for a super-advanced math student after sophomore year. Particularly if you want AP or post-AP courses.

You’d have to get creative in the upper grades, with dual enrollment or something.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP above. I think this was the thread, though I’m sure it’s come up before.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1137291.page#25150285

I don't think we need to make the decision about which application program we like best now now. If he gets into multiple and has a choice, I'm sure I'll be back with questions, but the PP who said that no one's odds are great is correct, so I'm not worried about that now.

What we do need to decide in the near future is what to put on the DCC choice form.
Which is why I'm really asking about strategies for that form.

Does it make sense for someone whose home school isn't Blair to put Blair first?

I’m the PP with two kids who got into Blair through the lottery. If you want Blair, put it first.

+1. I would rank them Blair, Wheaton, Einstein, then Northwood or Kennedy or vice versa.

What would the odds look like for each of those schools. I worry that I'm trading a 1% chance of getting Blair for a 30 % chance of getting Northwood or Kennedy, when ranking it Wheaton Einstein Blair . . . eliminates that 30%.

But maybe I'm overestimating the odds?

If you do the 2nd round and put your home school 1st or 2nd are you still guaranteed it? Could we do Blair, Wheaton, Einstein and then if we get Northwood or Kennedy, do Wheaton, Einstein in the second round?

[Anonymous]

OMG you really are neurotic.
Your odds of getting into your first two choices are high if they are not out of bounds Blair.
I think your odds of your child getting into at least one of the magnets is high as well.

As people have repeatedly told you the odds of getting into Blair with the lottery are really really low. It doesn't mean your chances are zero though so only you know your back up position and how much you want to gamble.

FWIW, I don't think Blair is the ideal school for everyone. It's huge and can feel impersonal and competitive as a result. Your child could be the star of the math team at Einstein but might not even make the math team at Blair. I don't think this applies to your kid OP but it's a decent example.

We know of at least two families that turned down Blair for Wheaton PLTW/Bioengineering. Those are smaller programs so the kids are socially closer and it's less cut throat than in a larger program.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:PP above. I think this was the thread, though I’m sure it’s come up before.

https://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/1137291.page#25150285

I don't think we need to make the decision about which application program we like best now now. If he gets into multiple and has a choice, I'm sure I'll be back with questions, but the PP who said that no one's odds are great is correct, so I'm not worried about that now.

What we do need to decide in the near future is what to put on the DCC choice form.
Which is why I'm really asking about strategies for that form.

Does it make sense for someone whose home school isn't Blair to put Blair first?

I’m the PP with two kids who got into Blair through the lottery. If you want Blair, put it first.

+1. I would rank them Blair, Wheaton, Einstein, then Northwood or Kennedy or vice versa.

What would the odds look like for each of those schools. I worry that I'm trading a 1% chance of getting Blair for a 30 % chance of getting Northwood or Kennedy, when ranking it Wheaton Einstein Blair . . . eliminates that 30%.

But maybe I'm overestimating the odds?

If you do the 2nd round and put your home school 1st or 2nd are you still guaranteed it? Could we do Blair, Wheaton, Einstein and then if we get Northwood or Kennedy, do Wheaton, Einstein in the second round?

In the second round, you don't re-rank your choices. They are the same as they were the first round, but your assignment can only change to a higher-ranked school, not lower.

https://www2.montgomeryschoolsmd.org/school-info/downcounty/choice/round2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OMG you really are neurotic.
Your odds of getting into your first two choices are high if they are not out of bounds Blair.
I think your odds of your child getting into at least one of the magnets is high as well.

As people have repeatedly told you the odds of getting into Blair with the lottery are really really low. It doesn't mean your chances are zero though so only you know your back up position and how much you want to gamble.

FWIW, I don't think Blair is the ideal school for everyone. It's huge and can feel impersonal and competitive as a result. Your child could be the star of the math team at Einstein but might not even make the math team at Blair. I don't think this applies to your kid OP but it's a decent example.

We know of at least two families that turned down Blair for Wheaton PLTW/Bioengineering. Those are smaller programs so the kids are socially closer and it's less cut throat than in a larger program.

Biomedical or engineering? Those are two different programs