The 2025 Demographic Cliff

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, 2007 was the highest birthrate year in American history. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/health/19birth.html#:~:text=More%20babies%20were%20born%20in,height%20of%20the%20baby%20boom.

That affects HS classes of '25 and '26.

Methinks classes of ‘26 and ‘27, as I have a late birthday ‘06er in the class of ‘25.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I remember hearing that 2007 was the highest birth year ever. That’s class of 29, so I think the cliff is after that.

No, 2005-2006 is 2024
2006-2006 is 2025
2006-2007 is 2026
2007-2008 is 2027

- mom of kids born in 2005 (fall) and 2008 (spring)

I don't think that is right. My 9/07 kid would have been a 2025 but we held back for 2026 pre-K.

DP. My kid is 9/07, will be a 2026 grad but we did not hold him back; the school district did. Had to be 5 y/o by 9/1 in order to enroll in K and his birthday was a few days after.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I remember hearing that 2007 was the highest birth year ever. That’s class of 29, so I think the cliff is after that.

No, 2005-2006 is 2024
2006-2006 is 2025
2006-2007 is 2026
2007-2008 is 2027

- mom of kids born in 2005 (fall) and 2008 (spring)

I don't think that is right. My 9/07 kid would have been a 2025 but we held back for 2026 pre-K.

DP. My kid is 9/07, will be a 2026 grad but we did not hold him back; the school district did. Had to be 5 y/o by 9/1 in order to enroll in K and his birthday was a few days after.

My DD born 12/07 will be a 2025 grad with at least 10 APs

[Anonymous]

It won't impact schools outside of small schools that are already struggling. And there are lots of international students who are full pay that colleges can take.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I remember hearing that 2007 was the highest birth year ever. That’s class of 29, so I think the cliff is after that.

No, 2005-2006 is 2024
2006-2006 is 2025
2006-2007 is 2026
2007-2008 is 2027

- mom of kids born in 2005 (fall) and 2008 (spring)

I don't think that is right. My 9/07 kid would have been a 2025 but we held back for 2026 pre-K.

DP. My kid is 9/07, will be a 2026 grad but we did not hold him back; the school district did. Had to be 5 y/o by 9/1 in order to enroll in K and his birthday was a few days after.

My DD born 12/07 will be a 2025 grad with at least 10 APs

"His" and "DD" are the important factors here. Depends on the school district but also on gender. Our DS was August and the school recommended to hold him back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I get that the larger number of students who are opting out of college for trade schools or to go into the work force without a degree to save money will not affect the more selective schools.

However, if the number of total high school students drops, it would have to affect the number of applications at more selective schools (unless there is another reason applications from this smaller pool increase offsetting this "demographic cliff").

The problem is colleges still have some "tricks" to juice their application numbers if they want. VT adopted the common app and waived the application fee for a huge swath of potential applicants...and guess what, their application numbers exploded.

There are in fact far fewer college students enrolled today vs. 10 years ago (like 2 million fewer) and even since 2019 (close to 1MM). It's the Shippensburg or Indiana University of PA-type schools that are really suffering (thousands of schools like that). Those schools have nearly 40% fewer students today vs. 10 years ago.

[Anonymous]

It’s going to take close to a decade for the “cliff” to fully occur (it’s more like a slope), the number of kids applying domestically will be the same as 2012.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, 2007 was the highest birthrate year in American history. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/health/19birth.html#:~:text=More%20babies%20were%20born%20in,height%20of%20the%20baby%20boom.

That affects HS classes of '25 and '26.

This does not surprise me. My current sophomore has always been in huge classes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:National news today had a story about the decline of college applicants and the rise in number attending trade schools or just going to work to learn a trade. Mostly due to high cost of college and low returns on that investment.

One of my 17 year olds really doesn’t want to go to a 4 year school. She’s academically outstanding and will finish her associate’s degree next year before even graduating HS. She’d really prefer to go into a trade. However, highly selective schools have reached out to her and I just hate to see her not take advantage of the opportunity.

Meanwhile, her brother really wants to go to art school. He has talent, but I think it’s a hard way to make a living and worry he’ll struggle with loans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I remember hearing that 2007 was the highest birth year ever. That’s class of 29, so I think the cliff is after that.

No, 2005-2006 is 2024
2006-2006 is 2025
2006-2007 is 2026
2007-2008 is 2027

- mom of kids born in 2005 (fall) and 2008 (spring)

2006-2007 is 2025
2007-2008 is 2026
2008-2009 is 2027

Unless you redshirted your kid and delayed their start (assuming Sept cutoff for K).

My DD is June 2007 and is one of the younger kids in Class of 2025. She is currently a sophomore.

+1
My DC's classmates are 2009-2010 which is 2028.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, 2007 was the highest birthrate year in American history. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/health/19birth.html#:~:text=More%20babies%20were%20born%20in,height%20of%20the%20baby%20boom.

That affects HS classes of '25 and '26.

This does not surprise me. My current sophomore has always been in huge classes.

MCPS has 15,262 in 9th grade (class of 2026) this year, which I believe is their highest number ever. Compared to 13,956 in 10th grade.

[Anonymous]

I think its going to be a little later

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, 2007 was the highest birthrate year in American history. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/health/19birth.html#:~:text=More%20babies%20were%20born%20in,height%20of%20the%20baby%20boom.

That affects HS classes of '25 and '26.

Well as a Class of 2025 parent, I'm going to hope a lot of those kids want to be mechanics

[Anonymous]

DD is class of 2028, born in 2010. When I was reading about the demographic cliff, I looked at the number of projected HS graduates, on the other side of the cliff. It's a gradual tapering off more than a sharp drop-off.

https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d21/tables/dt21_219.20.asp

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, 2007 was the highest birthrate year in American history. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/health/19birth.html#:~:text=More%20babies%20were%20born%20in,height%20of%20the%20baby%20boom.

That affects HS classes of '25 and '26.

This does not surprise me. My current sophomore has always been in huge classes.

MCPS has 15,262 in 9th grade (class of 2026) this year, which I believe is their highest number ever. Compared to 13,956 in 10th grade.

I have a class of 2026. Her class has always been big - starting with elementary school on.