The 2025 Demographic Cliff

[Anonymous]

Am I to assume that this demographic cliff will affect the class of 2025? Does it simply mean fewer students will exist in the college application pool?

I keep hearing about how colleges are getting fewer applications but the next article says competition is fierce and acceptance rates have plummeted.
My assumption is that the more competitive schools have been tougher to get into and the less competitive schools got even easier because students didn't want to go into debt if they weren't going to a great school and there are more options for non college grads.

Do we really think the class of 2025 will be a return to some normalcy for the more selective schools?

[Anonymous]

No, it will not because high-stats kids are all applying to the same highly selective schools, and 2025 will continue to do. Also, if colleges continue with test optional policies, which I believe they will, even more applicants that normally wouldn't apply because of lower test scores will continue to inflate the applicant pool.

[Anonymous]

I think the people who cry about how this changes everything will be proven wrong. The top 50 will still get thousands and thousands more applications than they need.

Carry on as usual - mostly matches, a few safeties and rolling, a reach or two.

[Anonymous]

Selective admission has always been and always will be more competitive than people realize. The difference is schools tanked outside the top 150 or so are going to struggle with less kids. Everyone else will be fine. So unless kids look at schools they haven’t heard of, it’ll be status quo.

[Anonymous]

Ranked

[Anonymous]

Is it as early as 2025? I thought it was later than that?

[Anonymous]

National news today had a story about the decline of college applicants and the rise in number attending trade schools or just going to work to learn a trade. Mostly due to high cost of college and low returns on that investment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:National news today had a story about the decline of college applicants and the rise in number attending trade schools or just going to work to learn a trade. Mostly due to high cost of college and low returns on that investment.

Correct, though the colleges that are hurting are those that compete with the workforce like community colleges and regional commuter universities.

[Anonymous]

Apparently it's not a cliff, more like a slow and stead decline. But PPs are correct, will not affect the most selective schools probably not even T-50 schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:National news today had a story about the decline of college applicants and the rise in number attending trade schools or just going to work to learn a trade. Mostly due to high cost of college and low returns on that investment.

And the lowest unemployment rate in my lifetime.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Is it as early as 2025? I thought it was later than that?

+1

Same.

Link, OP?

[Anonymous]

The recession babies will be turning 18 in two yrs.

[Anonymous]

Admissions will get more competitive and the small difference in the number of kids graduating high school will be negligible.

[Anonymous]

The HS Class of 25 was a bubble birth year. Look for more of a drop off with 2026, 2027 and esp 2028.

[Anonymous]

As long as kids can submit multiple applications with a few keystrokes, even if the absolute number of kids declines you'll still see tons of applications at the top schools.