The 2025 Demographic Cliff
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Anonymous
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There won’t be any change to selective schools until there are limits on how many apps can be submitted.
Smaller Northeastern and Midwest schools may suffer, Southern and Western schools will probably be okay. |
Anonymous
| I remember hearing that 2007 was the highest birth year ever. That’s class of 29, so I think the cliff is after that. |
Anonymous
No, 2005-2006 is 2024 2006-2006 is 2025 2006-2007 is 2026 2007-2008 is 2027 - mom of kids born in 2005 (fall) and 2008 (spring) |
Anonymous
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I swear I remember hearing that one of the classes behind me in the 90s was the largest ever and things were going to change after that.
The top schools haven’t changed much. The only big change from those times is Northeastern. People are obsessed with the same schools otherwise. |
Anonymous
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I get that the larger number of students who are opting out of college for trade schools or to go into the work force without a degree to save money will not affect the more selective schools.
However, if the number of total high school students drops, it would have to affect the number of applications at more selective schools (unless there is another reason applications from this smaller pool increase offsetting this "demographic cliff"). |
Anonymous
2006-2007 is 2025 2007-2008 is 2026 2008-2009 is 2027 Unless you redshirted your kid and delayed their start (assuming Sept cutoff for K). My DD is June 2007 and is one of the younger kids in Class of 2025. She is currently a sophomore. |
Anonymous
I don't think that is right. My 9/07 kid would have been a 2025 but we held back for 2026 pre-K. |
Anonymous
| The baby bust started with people not getting pregnant fall of 2008 due to the economy collapsing, and really dipped down for 2009-2011 babies. Those are the real dips. |
Anonymous
Poster prior to you fixed the typo |
Anonymous
Again that makes sense for podung schools, and also it's inline with decline of the useless majors. |
Anonymous
tremendously boosted by test optional |
Anonymous
| When is the cliff coming? Do you think starting next year (class of 24), they’ll enroll more kids from those classes? Just to get all the tuition dollars they can before the cliff? |
Anonymous
Colleges can’t arbitrarily enroll more kids because they need spaces to house them in dorms, classroom space, and additional faculty. |
Anonymous
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Yes, 2007 was the highest birthrate year in American history. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/health/19birth.html#:~:text=More%20babies%20were%20born%20in,height%20of%20the%20baby%20boom.
That affects HS classes of '25 and '26. |
Anonymous
| Some in Class of '26 should consider a gap year. |