Crime approaching 90s levels

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were 222 homicides in 2021, which was the most since 2003. So yes, it’s factually accurate to say that violent crime is approaching 1990s levels based on current trends.

I lived here in the 90s. We had 400 plus misters a year and fewer people.

The homicide rate went down to a remarkable low of 88 in 2012 before rising almost three fold to 226 in just nine years. At this rate, it will be back to 400 within a decade.

What were we doing in 2012 that we are not doing today?

Ramsey didn’t have to deal with a demographic youth boom. I would guess much of this issue has demographics at the root more than policy.

Say what? The largest age cohort are Millennials. The median Millennial was about 25 in 2012, which is prime crime age and Millennials were teens to early 20s throughout the entire period that the murder rate was steeply declining.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were 222 homicides in 2021, which was the most since 2003. So yes, it’s factually accurate to say that violent crime is approaching 1990s levels based on current trends.

I lived here in the 90s. We had 400 plus misters a year and fewer people.

The homicide rate went down to a remarkable low of 88 in 2012 before rising almost three fold to 226 in just nine years. At this rate, it will be back to 400 within a decade.

What were we doing in 2012 that we are not doing today?

First of all, 88 to 226 isn’t “almost three times.” Second, the count for 2022 is 199, 11 percent lower than this point last year. So, no at this rate it won’t be back to 400 within a decade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Enjoy it while you can, gunhumper. Because they’ll be banned soon enough. And since you so conveniently registered yours, we’ll know who’s door to knock on first when it’s time for you to turn them in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were 222 homicides in 2021, which was the most since 2003. So yes, it’s factually accurate to say that violent crime is approaching 1990s levels based on current trends.

I lived here in the 90s. We had 400 plus misters a year and fewer people.

The homicide rate went down to a remarkable low of 88 in 2012 before rising almost three fold to 226 in just nine years. At this rate, it will be back to 400 within a decade.

What were we doing in 2012 that we are not doing today?

First of all, 88 to 226 isn’t “almost three times.” Second, the count for 2022 is 199, 11 percent lower than this point last year. So, no at this rate it won’t be back to 400 within a decade.

88 to 226 is 2.6x over the past 9 years. If murders increase at 2.6x over the next 9 years there will be about 590.

You also don’t understand that there can be year-to-year variability within a longer term trend. That’s why we have statistics. On the way down to 88 homicides increased several times year-over-year. In particular, during the 2006-2008 period murders increased two years in a row from 169 to 181 to 186 before returning to trend and declining again.

What you are hanging your hat on to advocate people keeping their heads in the sand is a one year deviation from the trend of increasing murders. Maybe it’s meaningful but in the past it annual deviations from trends have not been meaningful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were 222 homicides in 2021, which was the most since 2003. So yes, it’s factually accurate to say that violent crime is approaching 1990s levels based on current trends.

I lived here in the 90s. We had 400 plus misters a year and fewer people.

The homicide rate went down to a remarkable low of 88 in 2012 before rising almost three fold to 226 in just nine years. At this rate, it will be back to 400 within a decade.

What were we doing in 2012 that we are not doing today?

First of all, 88 to 226 isn’t “almost three times.” Second, the count for 2022 is 199, 11 percent lower than this point last year. So, no at this rate it won’t be back to 400 within a decade.

88 to 226 is 2.6x over the past 9 years. If murders increase at 2.6x over the next 9 years there will be about 590.

You also don’t understand that there can be year-to-year variability within a longer term trend. That’s why we have statistics. On the way down to 88 homicides increased several times year-over-year. In particular, during the 2006-2008 period murders increased two years in a row from 169 to 181 to 186 before returning to trend and declining again.

What you are hanging your hat on to advocate people keeping their heads in the sand is a one year deviation from the trend of increasing murders. Maybe it’s meaningful but in the past it annual deviations from trends have not been meaningful.

There has never been 590 murders in DC in a year. Not even close. The current murder rate / number of murders is about average for DC over the last 40 or 50 years. Throughout DC’s history murder rates have always bounced up and down. The high murder rate in the 90s was the real aberration, and DC wasn’t alone - what happened here happened in many, many large cities.

One murder is too many. But there’s nothing suggesting that we’re approaching the 90s again.

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/dccrime.htm

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Enjoy it while you can, gunhumper. Because they’ll be banned soon enough. And since you so conveniently registered yours, we’ll know who’s door to knock on first when it’s time for you to turn them in.

Not the PP, but they won't be... I hope we can enforce the laws and require more training and checks for permits - but no, guns won't be banned

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Sure you do. I bet you don't even live in DC or anywhere near it. You sound like you're too chickenshit.

You realize CCW permits are a thing in DC right? Many of us carry. Also, genuinely curious — why are your parties all up in a bunch?

Panties in a bunch? No hon, that'd be you, since you're the one who's so worked up that you have a gun stuffed in your panties.

And again, you aren't cut out for city life. I doubt you live in the city. You're probably one of those people who at best maybe only barrels in and out of the burbs for your commute and pretends to be tough with a "Don't Tread On Me" VA plate. I see your kind all the time.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:There were 222 homicides in 2021, which was the most since 2003. So yes, it’s factually accurate to say that violent crime is approaching 1990s levels based on current trends.

I lived here in the 90s. We had 400 plus misters a year and fewer people.

The homicide rate went down to a remarkable low of 88 in 2012 before rising almost three fold to 226 in just nine years. At this rate, it will be back to 400 within a decade.

What were we doing in 2012 that we are not doing today?

First of all, 88 to 226 isn’t “almost three times.” Second, the count for 2022 is 199, 11 percent lower than this point last year. So, no at this rate it won’t be back to 400 within a decade.

88 to 226 is 2.6x over the past 9 years. If murders increase at 2.6x over the next 9 years there will be about 590.

You also don’t understand that there can be year-to-year variability within a longer term trend. That’s why we have statistics. On the way down to 88 homicides increased several times year-over-year. In particular, during the 2006-2008 period murders increased two years in a row from 169 to 181 to 186 before returning to trend and declining again.

What you are hanging your hat on to advocate people keeping their heads in the sand is a one year deviation from the trend of increasing murders. Maybe it’s meaningful but in the past it annual deviations from trends have not been meaningful.

There has never been 590 murders in DC in a year. Not even close. The current murder rate / number of murders is about average for DC over the last 40 or 50 years. Throughout DC’s history murder rates have always bounced up and down. The high murder rate in the 90s was the real aberration, and DC wasn’t alone - what happened here happened in many, many large cities.

One murder is too many. But there’s nothing suggesting that we’re approaching the 90s again.

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/dccrime.htm

Based on the very data you presented the murder rate per 100k population has been historically low over the past decade. If population stays the same, the number of muders would be expected to double to keep pace with what you say is the long term average over the past 50 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Enjoy it while you can, gunhumper. Because they’ll be banned soon enough. And since you so conveniently registered yours, we’ll know who’s door to knock on first when it’s time for you to turn them in.

Off your SSRI’s today or something? Clearly you are living in fantasy land.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Sure you do. I bet you don't even live in DC or anywhere near it. You sound like you're too chickenshit.

You realize CCW permits are a thing in DC right? Many of us carry. Also, genuinely curious — why are your parties all up in a bunch?

Panties in a bunch? No hon, that'd be you, since you're the one who's so worked up that you have a gun stuffed in your panties.

And again, you aren't cut out for city life. I doubt you live in the city. You're probably one of those people who at best maybe only barrels in and out of the burbs for your commute and pretends to be tough with a "Don't Tread On Me" VA plate. I see your kind all the time.

Take a break from being angry anonymously on the internet — your poor mental health is out there in the open.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Sure you do. I bet you don't even live in DC or anywhere near it. You sound like you're too chickenshit.

You realize CCW permits are a thing in DC right? Many of us carry. Also, genuinely curious — why are your parties all up in a bunch?

Panties in a bunch? No hon, that'd be you, since you're the one who's so worked up that you have a gun stuffed in your panties.

And again, you aren't cut out for city life. I doubt you live in the city. You're probably one of those people who at best maybe only barrels in and out of the burbs for your commute and pretends to be tough with a "Don't Tread On Me" VA plate. I see your kind all the time.

And yet you only have the courage to talk trash from the comfort of your keyboard 🙄.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Sure you do. I bet you don't even live in DC or anywhere near it. You sound like you're too chickenshit.

You realize CCW permits are a thing in DC right? Many of us carry. Also, genuinely curious — why are your parties all up in a bunch?

Panties in a bunch? No hon, that'd be you, since you're the one who's so worked up that you have a gun stuffed in your panties.

And again, you aren't cut out for city life. I doubt you live in the city. You're probably one of those people who at best maybe only barrels in and out of the burbs for your commute and pretends to be tough with a "Don't Tread On Me" VA plate. I see your kind all the time.

Is being cut out for city life being a victim? Interesting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Sure you do. I bet you don't even live in DC or anywhere near it. You sound like you're too chickenshit.

You realize CCW permits are a thing in DC right? Many of us carry. Also, genuinely curious — why are your parties all up in a bunch?

Panties in a bunch? No hon, that'd be you, since you're the one who's so worked up that you have a gun stuffed in your panties.

And again, you aren't cut out for city life. I doubt you live in the city. You're probably one of those people who at best maybe only barrels in and out of the burbs for your commute and pretends to be tough with a "Don't Tread On Me" VA plate. I see your kind all the time.

And yet you only have the courage to talk trash from the comfort of your keyboard 🙄.

LMAO - all your own projection. I speak my mind regardless of whether I'm on or off a keyboard.

You're the one so scared and lacking in courage that you think you need to be clinging to a gun just to come into the city.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why I carry everywhere I go in DC.

Sure you do. I bet you don't even live in DC or anywhere near it. You sound like you're too chickenshit.

You realize CCW permits are a thing in DC right? Many of us carry. Also, genuinely curious — why are your parties all up in a bunch?

Panties in a bunch? No hon, that'd be you, since you're the one who's so worked up that you have a gun stuffed in your panties.

And again, you aren't cut out for city life. I doubt you live in the city. You're probably one of those people who at best maybe only barrels in and out of the burbs for your commute and pretends to be tough with a "Don't Tread On Me" VA plate. I see your kind all the time.

Take a break from being angry anonymously on the internet — your poor mental health is out there in the open.

Angry? I'm actually pretty chill. You on the other hand are the one who feels the need to have a weapon of mass violence at your fingertips at all times. I suggest you check your own mental health.

[Anonymous]

Wow, the gun humper's super triggered