Reply to Crime approaching 90s levels

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]There were 222 homicides in 2021, which was the most since 2003. So yes, it’s factually accurate to say that violent crime is approaching 1990s levels based on current trends. [/quote]

I lived here in the 90s. We had 400 plus misters a year and fewer people. [/quote]
The homicide rate went down to a remarkable low of 88 in 2012 before rising almost three fold to 226 in just nine years. At this rate, it will be back to 400 within a decade.[/quote]

What were we doing in 2012 that we are not doing today?[/quote]

First of all, 88 to 226 isn’t “almost three times.”  Second, the count for 2022 is 199, 11 percent lower than this point last year.  So, no at this rate it won’t be back to 400 within a decade.  [/quote]
88 to 226 is 2.6x over the past 9 years. If murders increase at 2.6x over the next 9 years there will be about 590.

You also don’t understand that there can be year-to-year variability within a longer term trend. That’s why we have statistics. On the way down to 88 homicides increased several times year-over-year. In particular, during the 2006-2008 period murders increased two years in a row from 169 to 181 to 186 before returning to trend and declining again.

What you are hanging your hat on to advocate people keeping their heads in the sand is a one year deviation from the trend of increasing murders. Maybe it’s meaningful but in the past it annual deviations from trends have not been meaningful. [/quote]

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