Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not good news. Remember Hillary lost Wisconsin because of low Black voter turnout in Milwaukee. According to a previous NY Times article there are way more Trump supporters in the Milwaukee suburbs than the average suburbs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

To give you a sense of how conservative Milwaukee County is, David Clarke was the Sheriff there. SMH.

You are cherry picking the article. Also, the current sherriff is a Democrat. Which doesn't mean they are not relatively conservative, but it suggests that Trump doesn't have a lock on these suburbs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not good news. Remember Hillary lost Wisconsin because of low Black voter turnout in Milwaukee. According to a previous NY Times article there are way more Trump supporters in the Milwaukee suburbs than the average suburbs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Broken link.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

Why do you keep citing this story as proof that things are going poorly for Biden?

There is ample evidence that Democratic turnout in Wisconsin is skyrocketing.

Eight counties, including Dane County, the state’s most Democratic county and home to Madison, have exceeded their 2016 turnout, according to Wisconsin Election Commission data released on Monday.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Hopefully there will be more voting in Milwaukee before polls close, too. Hopefully Republicans will continue not to turn out.

People see what they want to see. The story so far of this election is that Biden is picking up enough moderate white suburban voters to win, even as he loses a few Latinos and black men.

[Anonymous]

Florida

Voting in person on Election Day
Biden: 21%
Trump: 69

By mail/absentee ballot
Biden: 61%
Trump: 26%

At an early voting location
Biden: 46%
Trump: 46%

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not good news. Remember Hillary lost Wisconsin because of low Black voter turnout in Milwaukee. According to a previous NY Times article there are way more Trump supporters in the Milwaukee suburbs than the average suburbs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Broken link.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

Why do you keep citing this story as proof that things are going poorly for Biden?

There is ample evidence that Democratic turnout in Wisconsin is skyrocketing.

Eight counties, including Dane County, the state’s most Democratic county and home to Madison, have exceeded their 2016 turnout, according to Wisconsin Election Commission data released on Monday.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Hopefully there will be more voting in Milwaukee before polls close, too. Hopefully Republicans will continue not to turn out.

People see what they want to see. The story so far of this election is that Biden is picking up enough moderate white suburban voters to win, even as he loses a few Latinos and black men.

And seniors, who don't want to A) die of COVID b) Don't want to have to be locked in their homes for the rest of their lives because Trump is just shrugging his shoulders are writing off the senior population

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not good news. Remember Hillary lost Wisconsin because of low Black voter turnout in Milwaukee. According to a previous NY Times article there are way more Trump supporters in the Milwaukee suburbs than the average suburbs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

To give you a sense of how conservative Milwaukee County is, David Clarke was the Sheriff there. SMH.

You are cherry picking the article. Also, the current sherriff is a Democrat. Which doesn't mean they are not relatively conservative, but it suggests that Trump doesn't have a lock on these suburbs.

David Clarke ran all that time as a Democrat. It was a total con job.

[Anonymous]

I don't believe in polls, look what happened last election. Don't kid yourself.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't believe in polls, look what happened last election. Don't kid yourself.

Please take Statistics 101. It will make you smarter. Promise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't believe in polls, look what happened last election. Don't kid yourself.

Polls weren’t wrong in 2016. Hillary won the popular vote. Trump won three states well within the polling margin of error, which meant he got all the electoral votes for those states even though the vote totals were barely 50/50.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't believe in polls, look what happened last election. Don't kid yourself.

This.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Florida

Voting in person on Election Day
Biden: 21%
Trump: 69

By mail/absentee ballot
Biden: 61%
Trump: 26%

At an early voting location
Biden: 46%
Trump: 46%

If this is true- and I read something like six million ballots in Florida- then Biden should have an insurmountable lead. Six million ballots is 2/3 of Florida total turnout. And another 3M voted early. We’re already at 2016 turnout level without even Election Day voting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not good news. Remember Hillary lost Wisconsin because of low Black voter turnout in Milwaukee. According to a previous NY Times article there are way more Trump supporters in the Milwaukee suburbs than the average suburbs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Broken link.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

Why do you keep citing this story as proof that things are going poorly for Biden?

There is ample evidence that Democratic turnout in Wisconsin is skyrocketing.

Eight counties, including Dane County, the state’s most Democratic county and home to Madison, have exceeded their 2016 turnout, according to Wisconsin Election Commission data released on Monday.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Hopefully there will be more voting in Milwaukee before polls close, too. Hopefully Republicans will continue not to turn out.

IIRC, Blacks seem more mistrusting of mail-in voting, so only time will tell.

Milwaukee City is 590k people and Milwaukee County outside the city is about 355k people. The county voters are a wild card - they swung for moderate Dems in 2018 but did launch the career of David Clarke and Scott Walker.

But if Dane County is sitting at over 100% of 2016 turnout, Biden can potentially win there by 155k-160k votes. (Clinton won by 146.5k in 2016.) Basically high turnout in Dane County WI is bad news for the WI GOP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is not good news. Remember Hillary lost Wisconsin because of low Black voter turnout in Milwaukee. According to a previous NY Times article there are way more Trump supporters in the Milwaukee suburbs than the average suburbs.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Broken link.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/us/politics/wisconsin-voters.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232

Why do you keep citing this story as proof that things are going poorly for Biden?

There is ample evidence that Democratic turnout in Wisconsin is skyrocketing.

Eight counties, including Dane County, the state’s most Democratic county and home to Madison, have exceeded their 2016 turnout, according to Wisconsin Election Commission data released on Monday.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

In Milwaukee County, 96 percent of the 2016 electorate has already voted, though the numbers are higher in the suburbs than in the far-more-Democratic city of Milwaukee.

Hopefully there will be more voting in Milwaukee before polls close, too. Hopefully Republicans will continue not to turn out.

IIRC, Blacks seem more mistrusting of mail-in voting, so only time will tell.

Milwaukee City is 590k people and Milwaukee County outside the city is about 355k people. The county voters are a wild card - they swung for moderate Dems in 2018 but did launch the career of David Clarke and Scott Walker.

But if Dane County is sitting at over 100% of 2016 turnout, Biden can potentially win there by 155k-160k votes. (Clinton won by 146.5k in 2016.) Basically high turnout in Dane County WI is bad news for the WI GOP.

Launched those people in a different era. I think 2018 showed Trump destroyed the Republican brand among moderate suburban voters. Trump has not improved since 2018, so they will vote Democratic again.

[Anonymous]

If Dane is coming out in higher droves, and Milwaukee non-city voters are swinging more D than even 2018, then Trump had better run up the score among WOW voters and in the rural areas (although the counties in far NW Wisconsin and along the river are purplish).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If Dane is coming out in higher droves, and Milwaukee non-city voters are swinging more D than even 2018, then Trump had better run up the score among WOW voters and in the rural areas (although the counties in far NW Wisconsin and along the river are purplish).

The NY Times ran an article about the Milwaukee suburbs being Trump country. I doubt that the unrest in Kenosha and Wauwatosa pulled more people toward Biden, not to mention Brett Favre endorsing Trump.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/us/politics/wisconsin-trump-biden-suburbs.amp.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If Dane is coming out in higher droves, and Milwaukee non-city voters are swinging more D than even 2018, then Trump had better run up the score among WOW voters and in the rural areas (although the counties in far NW Wisconsin and along the river are purplish).

Given the incidence of COVID in Green Bay and the WOW counties, I wouldn't count on high turnout or support for Trump.