Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s only relevant in the sense that it’s true.

There wasn’t a country called Ukraine until todays version.

Ukraine’s way of life is not that different from Russia so let’s not pretend that it is .

Learn some damn history. Ukraine has existed for over 1000 years. Moscow was founded by the Kyivan Rus - Ukrainians. Their trident symbol has been in use and part of their identity since Volodymyr the Great (958 – 15 July 1015)

You are an ignorant idiot.

DP but this is just part of the propaganda bull for Ukraine that they use to desperately prove they are not like the Russians

Wow dude, the Ukrainians must have a time machine too, because that history exists in many books and histories and maps dating back hundreds of years.

How can Russia win against a country that apparently according to you has a time machine? 😆

The fact that all of those historical maps, references and accounts exist proves that it's not mere propaganda. But it does prove, yet again, that you are a clown.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest

Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

DP. I think there will be continued support for years, however modest, maybe not so modest even. Look at Israel.
However it doesn’t change the fact that the lives keep being lost.
How many years of fighting is it going to be worth it?

I don't know, but right now, Russia is abducting both Ukrainian children and senior citizens, and treating them like dog sh!t. They probably don't want that for their future, if they were to surrender and spare lives.

This is propaganda to a large extent.
Ukrainians are allowed to pass through Russia to seek asylum in the west (there are volunteers helping them), or they can resettle in Russia.
Europe is more lucrative but Russia is more familiar so to each their own

Then why are thousands still missing, despite their own family members trying to bring them back home to Ukraine? Russia is telling you a huge and heinous lie pretending there is some civilized and organized process but that the children simply choose to stay in Russia.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

Serious question: how many Ukrainian lives can they afford to lose for this to still stand true?

Why is this a question for Ukraine? Why is the same not a question for Russia? Russia has already lost more troops and equipment in the last 2 years than it has in every single other war combined since the 1970s, to include Afghan, Chechen, Dagestan, Georgia, Syria, African conflicts and everywhere else. The Russians were able to last 20 years with the Afghan war before deciding it was unsustainable but a.) that was with the much greater might and resources, engineering, logistic and manufacturing capacity of the Soviet Union and b. that was with just a fraction of the losses that Russia is now suffering in Ukraine. As such, Russia cannot keep this going indefinitely. They cannot last 20 years. They would be lucky to last 5 years, and we're already 2 years into that.

Ukraine is fighting for its very survival. They are fighting for their identity, their language, their way of life, their will to become a part of the European community, and so much more. But what is Russia fighting for? They are fighting because Putin wills it. Because Russia wants their resources. Because of lies about "Nazis" and other stupidity. Russia's rationale for war is far weaker than Ukraine's rationale for resisting them.

This is not a question for Russia because it’s bigger and because we already know it’s not acting rationally.

Also their identity and way of life and whatnot is very similar to that of Russians. Believing otherwise is what brought all the misery on them

They may be "bigger" from a population and territory standpoint but that's about it. Hardly anyone is leaping in to help Russia, with the exception of fellow ostracized rogue states like Iran. Not even Russia's CSTO allies, or Belarus, are giving Russia much meaningful support. They lack logistics and manufacturing capacity. Even basic items like microchips and bearings have been a difficulty for Russia since the war began.

And how sick and twisted of you to make a comment like "believing otherwise is what brought all the misery on them" and suggest this war is somehow entirely Ukraine's fault because Ukraine dared to actually be sovereign and independent from Russia. You should be ashamed.

[Anonymous]

It's always important to maintain clarity. Russia invaded Ukraine; not the other way around. As a consequence, thousands and thousands of people have died Russians have committed numerous well-documented atrocities, from Bucha to Mariupol. They rape. They torture, They destroy.

Russian tactics are all about scorched earth. In recent weeks, they destroyed a major dam and now it's all about wrecking Ukraine's capacity to export grain to the rest of the world. If you watch Russian television, they are very enthusiastic about using famine as a weapon.

The counteroffensive struggles because of mines and the numerical advantages that Russia has with both infantry and artillery. NATO air superiority would take care of that in two weeks. But that's not an option presently. It's a terrible, very costly grind for Ukrainians in the meantime.

It's been very enlightening reading this forum. The MAGA traitors and Russian trolls are out in force. But there is no possible win for Russia here. Invading Ukraine was a horrible strategic mistake from which they will never recover. It's been a gift to the West. Every day, Russia becomes weaker and weaker. It was their choice to fertilize Ukrainian soil. We've spent less than 5 percent of the pentagon's budget on this. And Russia, the West's main adversary for the past 80 years, has lost at least 50 percent of their capabilities.

No one is invading Poland anytime soon. NATO is stronger than ever. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a beautiful gift for the West. The longer it goes on, the better for the West.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's always important to maintain clarity. Russia invaded Ukraine; not the other way around. As a consequence, thousands and thousands of people have died Russians have committed numerous well-documented atrocities, from Bucha to Mariupol. They rape. They torture, They destroy.

Russian tactics are all about scorched earth. In recent weeks, they destroyed a major dam and now it's all about wrecking Ukraine's capacity to export grain to the rest of the world. If you watch Russian television, they are very enthusiastic about using famine as a weapon.

The counteroffensive struggles because of mines and the numerical advantages that Russia has with both infantry and artillery. NATO air superiority would take care of that in two weeks. But that's not an option presently. It's a terrible, very costly grind for Ukrainians in the meantime.

It's been very enlightening reading this forum. The MAGA traitors and Russian trolls are out in force. But there is no possible win for Russia here. Invading Ukraine was a horrible strategic mistake from which they will never recover. It's been a gift to the West. Every day, Russia becomes weaker and weaker. It was their choice to fertilize Ukrainian soil. We've spent less than 5 percent of the pentagon's budget on this. And Russia, the West's main adversary for the past 80 years, has lost at least 50 percent of their capabilities.

No one is invading Poland anytime soon. NATO is stronger than ever. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a beautiful gift for the West. The longer it goes on, the better for the West.

This. And Finland, Sweden - countries that 5 years ago had zero interest in joining NATO are now on board. The world is taking note.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest

Now that's magical thinking! If you're the one who claimed to have relatives in Russia, you tell me - just how stubborn is your typical Slav? Are they the live-and-let-live, bygones-be-bygones, turn-the-pther-cheek types? Hmm? lol

Besides, there's a lot of wheels in motion today.

"Moscow took unexpectedly sharp action to curb inflation."
"Russia’s central bank took the unexpected step of raising its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent."
"the bank warned that further increases were likely."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/world/europe/russia-interest-rate-inflation.html

If you don't know what this means, just sit tight. I think my hunch about Russia in hyperinflation might be correct. That's why I think the most recent Russian Government threats about the Black Sea are silly. All Ukraine needs to do is 'reciprocate' and Russia is screwed, since I believe Russia is highly dependent on the ships calling on Russian ports in the Black Sea (more so than Ukraine is). Russia has a huge logistical hurdle transporting goods over land. It's just too big and it takes a lot of fuel and vehicles to transport goods via land.

"Starting on July 20th, all ships in the waters of the Black Sea sailing to Ukrainian ports will be viewed as potential carriers of military cargo."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxHXkU8MExA

"This would be a covert method in the open. We can very easily block the area and declare it a zone of military actions, as is customary in these situations. If any merchant vessels show up there and don't respond to the "friend or foe" signal, they would simply be destroyed, including trade ships."
"We should simply make this decision"

Olga Skabeyeva: "We're ready to go war with Turkey?"
"There's also Erdoğan claiming the Black Sea."
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-debates-attacking-nato-countries-1814639

As far as Ukraine taking massive casualties, I look at facts, not opinions. Is Ukraine training schoolchildren military skills? Does Ukraine tell women to ditch school and get knocked up because education is "a faulty practice"?

"September 1, schoolchildren will learn the basics of the combat use of drones at the lessons of basic military training"
"In a response to Sheikin from First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov (available to RIA Novosti), it is said that the program provides for the study of "types, purpose, performance characteristics and general structure, reconnaissance of the area and methods of countering enemy UAVs."
https://ria.ru/20230721/shkolniki-1885395455.html

"Mikhail Murashko [Russia's Minister of Health] literally said that women's aspirations to get an education and to build their careers while postponing childbirth, is a faulty practice."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxHXkU8MExA

Russian propagandists drank the Kool-Aid for so long, that they can't tell the Emperor is buck naked.

What does stubbornness have to do with anything?
It’s an open secret that certain targets are avoided in this war because economics (transnational economic interests to be exact)
Yes there is inflation in Russia. Yes there is propaganda. I am not trying to deny the obvious.
What I am saying is that you seem to base your predictions on a bunch of facts in the papers. The facts that have been there all along yet the war goes on.
Please understand I am as hopeful the war will end soon as you are. The problem is that it seems the economy has more or less survived, and is now sort of two faced: at the surface it’s business as usual but behind the curtain there are a lot of wheels in motion that actually supply the war machine. It will take a while to come to a halt - but the first signs will be shortages of something pretty universal, not your typical oreo cookies or what was it you mentioned?
Also look, even the 90s with their desperation didn’t lead to maidan. Right now there are way fewer reasons.
Anyway, for all of us to understand that the end is near we need to see something pretty drastic, not a bunch of scary but empty promises about potentially destroying this oe that

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s only relevant in the sense that it’s true.

There wasn’t a country called Ukraine until todays version.

Ukraine’s way of life is not that different from Russia so let’s not pretend that it is .

Learn some damn history. Ukraine has existed for over 1000 years. Moscow was founded by the Kyivan Rus - Ukrainians. Their trident symbol has been in use and part of their identity since Volodymyr the Great (958 – 15 July 1015)

You are an ignorant idiot.

DP but this is just part of the propaganda bull for Ukraine that they use to desperately prove they are not like the Russians

Wow dude, the Ukrainians must have a time machine too, because that history exists in many books and histories and maps dating back hundreds of years.

How can Russia win against a country that apparently according to you has a time machine? 😆

The fact that all of those historical maps, references and accounts exist proves that it's not mere propaganda. But it does prove, yet again, that you are a clown.

Ukrainians should have worked on their relations with the big and potentially dangerous neighbor instead of digging out some facts that would prove that they are what, more ancient?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest

Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.

I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

DP. I think there will be continued support for years, however modest, maybe not so modest even. Look at Israel.
However it doesn’t change the fact that the lives keep being lost.
How many years of fighting is it going to be worth it?

I don't know, but right now, Russia is abducting both Ukrainian children and senior citizens, and treating them like dog sh!t. They probably don't want that for their future, if they were to surrender and spare lives.

This is propaganda to a large extent.
Ukrainians are allowed to pass through Russia to seek asylum in the west (there are volunteers helping them), or they can resettle in Russia.
Europe is more lucrative but Russia is more familiar so to each their own

Then why are thousands still missing, despite their own family members trying to bring them back home to Ukraine? Russia is telling you a huge and heinous lie pretending there is some civilized and organized process but that the children simply choose to stay in Russia.

Thousands is not millions. I am not saying oh wow Russia is a great country, so transparent and based on humanitarian principles. But the scale of this is akin to when Trump lost the migrant kids. Not great not terrible

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

Serious question: how many Ukrainian lives can they afford to lose for this to still stand true?

Why is this a question for Ukraine? Why is the same not a question for Russia? Russia has already lost more troops and equipment in the last 2 years than it has in every single other war combined since the 1970s, to include Afghan, Chechen, Dagestan, Georgia, Syria, African conflicts and everywhere else. The Russians were able to last 20 years with the Afghan war before deciding it was unsustainable but a.) that was with the much greater might and resources, engineering, logistic and manufacturing capacity of the Soviet Union and b. that was with just a fraction of the losses that Russia is now suffering in Ukraine. As such, Russia cannot keep this going indefinitely. They cannot last 20 years. They would be lucky to last 5 years, and we're already 2 years into that.

Ukraine is fighting for its very survival. They are fighting for their identity, their language, their way of life, their will to become a part of the European community, and so much more. But what is Russia fighting for? They are fighting because Putin wills it. Because Russia wants their resources. Because of lies about "Nazis" and other stupidity. Russia's rationale for war is far weaker than Ukraine's rationale for resisting them.

This is not a question for Russia because it’s bigger and because we already know it’s not acting rationally.

Also their identity and way of life and whatnot is very similar to that of Russians. Believing otherwise is what brought all the misery on them

They may be "bigger" from a population and territory standpoint but that's about it. Hardly anyone is leaping in to help Russia, with the exception of fellow ostracized rogue states like Iran. Not even Russia's CSTO allies, or Belarus, are giving Russia much meaningful support. They lack logistics and manufacturing capacity. Even basic items like microchips and bearings have been a difficulty for Russia since the war began.

And how sick and twisted of you to make a comment like "believing otherwise is what brought all the misery on them" and suggest this war is somehow entirely Ukraine's fault because Ukraine dared to actually be sovereign and independent from Russia. You should be ashamed.

You are the one leaping
Russia is the aggressor BUT Ukraine should have been smarter in not provoking them
But they were too engulfed in their perceived historical importance and not being like the Russians that they blew it

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's always important to maintain clarity. Russia invaded Ukraine; not the other way around. As a consequence, thousands and thousands of people have died Russians have committed numerous well-documented atrocities, from Bucha to Mariupol. They rape. They torture, They destroy.

Russian tactics are all about scorched earth. In recent weeks, they destroyed a major dam and now it's all about wrecking Ukraine's capacity to export grain to the rest of the world. If you watch Russian television, they are very enthusiastic about using famine as a weapon.

The counteroffensive struggles because of mines and the numerical advantages that Russia has with both infantry and artillery. NATO air superiority would take care of that in two weeks. But that's not an option presently. It's a terrible, very costly grind for Ukrainians in the meantime.

It's been very enlightening reading this forum. The MAGA traitors and Russian trolls are out in force. But there is no possible win for Russia here. Invading Ukraine was a horrible strategic mistake from which they will never recover. It's been a gift to the West. Every day, Russia becomes weaker and weaker. It was their choice to fertilize Ukrainian soil. We've spent less than 5 percent of the pentagon's budget on this. And Russia, the West's main adversary for the past 80 years, has lost at least 50 percent of their capabilities.

No one is invading Poland anytime soon. NATO is stronger than ever. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a beautiful gift for the West. The longer it goes on, the better for the West.

This is all true. The one thing missing in your well written post is how bad it is for Ukraine.
I don’t think it’s important for the US but it’s worth taking note that they aren’t among the gift recipients.
I am the one who asked at what mark would it not be worth it for them. I still want to know how much they are ready to lose to win this war.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest

Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.

I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed

Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.

Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It's always important to maintain clarity. Russia invaded Ukraine; not the other way around. As a consequence, thousands and thousands of people have died Russians have committed numerous well-documented atrocities, from Bucha to Mariupol. They rape. They torture, They destroy.

Russian tactics are all about scorched earth. In recent weeks, they destroyed a major dam and now it's all about wrecking Ukraine's capacity to export grain to the rest of the world. If you watch Russian television, they are very enthusiastic about using famine as a weapon.

The counteroffensive struggles because of mines and the numerical advantages that Russia has with both infantry and artillery. NATO air superiority would take care of that in two weeks. But that's not an option presently. It's a terrible, very costly grind for Ukrainians in the meantime.

It's been very enlightening reading this forum. The MAGA traitors and Russian trolls are out in force. But there is no possible win for Russia here. Invading Ukraine was a horrible strategic mistake from which they will never recover. It's been a gift to the West. Every day, Russia becomes weaker and weaker. It was their choice to fertilize Ukrainian soil. We've spent less than 5 percent of the pentagon's budget on this. And Russia, the West's main adversary for the past 80 years, has lost at least 50 percent of their capabilities.

No one is invading Poland anytime soon. NATO is stronger than ever. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a beautiful gift for the West. The longer it goes on, the better for the West.

You should know that you’re repeating Russian propaganda word for word. That’s exactly what they say: the West doesn’t care about these silly Ukrainians, they are simply using the country to damage Russia. The West wants this war to go as long as possible. They don’t care how many die in the process, and they are actively preventing any peace deals from being discussed.

So, congratulations . You’re a very able helper for Mr Solovyov.

[Anonymous]

What interests does Zelensky represent? Where are his true loyalties?

It’s a tangled question.