Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
Wrong
Even Bloomberg admitted it won’t matter much because most of Ukrainian grain was going west
Russia announced they are willing to make up for any supply loss to mena or global south at a discounted price
Ukr wheat was not going south - the bill was going west
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed
Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.
Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.
That's a lie, a huge amount of Ukrainian grain goes to Africa. Also, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other places depend on Ukrainian grain.
And Russia didn't merely "step out of the deal" - this week they sent waves of cruise missiles in an attempt to bomb and destroy the ports and the major grain storage areas in Odesa and Mykolaiv, and are threatening to attack international shipping vessels.
Stop pretending that Russia has some kind of moral or virtuous high ground in this, it's pure villainy.
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
Wrong
Even Bloomberg admitted it won’t matter much because most of Ukrainian grain was going west
Russia announced they are willing to make up for any supply loss to mena or global south at a discounted price
Ukr wheat was not going south - the bill was going west
Easy to supply grain at a discounted price when you've stolen it from Ukraine.
And, by "the bill was going west" you mean it was being paid for by the west, e.g. World Food Programme and others, who in turn distribute it to impoverished areas - like Africa.
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed
Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.
Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed
Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.
Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.
That's a lie, a huge amount of Ukrainian grain goes to Africa. Also, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other places depend on Ukrainian grain.
And Russia didn't merely "step out of the deal" - this week they sent waves of cruise missiles in an attempt to bomb and destroy the ports and the major grain storage areas in Odesa and Mykolaiv, and are threatening to attack international shipping vessels.
Stop pretending that Russia has some kind of moral or virtuous high ground in this, it's pure villainy.
Great, now do one for the shipments under the grain deal. Where did they go?
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed
Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.
Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.
That's a lie, a huge amount of Ukrainian grain goes to Africa. Also, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other places depend on Ukrainian grain.
And Russia didn't merely "step out of the deal" - this week they sent waves of cruise missiles in an attempt to bomb and destroy the ports and the major grain storage areas in Odesa and Mykolaiv, and are threatening to attack international shipping vessels.
Stop pretending that Russia has some kind of moral or virtuous high ground in this, it's pure villainy.
Do you know what “a deal” is? Both parties are supposed to get something. Russia’s terms under the deal were not honored. Why would they continue a deal under which they got nothing?
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed
Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.
Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.
That's a lie, a huge amount of Ukrainian grain goes to Africa. Also, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other places depend on Ukrainian grain.
Stop pretending that Russia has some kind of moral or virtuous high ground in this, it's pure villainy.
It is so charming that you worry about Afghanistan’s food security - even as America froze all the government funds of that country, effectively halting all development and reconstruction work. Charming, I tell you.
Just like refusing to lift sanctions on Syria to enable earthquake relief shipments. America is perfectly willing to make people it doesn’t like starve and die from lack of medicine so zip it with your fake hunger concerns. No one believes you.
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Now that's magical thinking! If you're the one who claimed to have relatives in Russia, you tell me - just how stubborn is your typical Slav? Are they the live-and-let-live, bygones-be-bygones, turn-the-pther-cheek types? Hmm? lol
Besides, there's a lot of wheels in motion today.
"Moscow took unexpectedly sharp action to curb inflation."
"Russia’s central bank took the unexpected step of raising its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent."
"the bank warned that further increases were likely."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/world/europe/russia-interest-rate-inflation.html
If you don't know what this means, just sit tight. I think my hunch about Russia in hyperinflation might be correct. That's why I think the most recent Russian Government threats about the Black Sea are silly. All Ukraine needs to do is 'reciprocate' and Russia is screwed, since I believe Russia is highly dependent on the ships calling on Russian ports in the Black Sea (more so than Ukraine is). Russia has a huge logistical hurdle transporting goods over land. It's just too big and it takes a lot of fuel and vehicles to transport goods via land.
"Starting on July 20th, all ships in the waters of the Black Sea sailing to Ukrainian ports will be viewed as potential carriers of military cargo."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxHXkU8MExA
"This would be a covert method in the open. We can very easily block the area and declare it a zone of military actions, as is customary in these situations. If any merchant vessels show up there and don't respond to the "friend or foe" signal, they would simply be destroyed, including trade ships."
"We should simply make this decision"
As far as Ukraine taking massive casualties, I look at facts, not opinions. Is Ukraine training schoolchildren military skills? Does Ukraine tell women to ditch school and get knocked up because education is "a faulty practice"?
"September 1, schoolchildren will learn the basics of the combat use of drones at the lessons of basic military training"
"In a response to Sheikin from First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov (available to RIA Novosti), it is said that the program provides for the study of "types, purpose, performance characteristics and general structure, reconnaissance of the area and methods of countering enemy UAVs."
https://ria.ru/20230721/shkolniki-1885395455.html
"Mikhail Murashko [Russia's Minister of Health] literally said that women's aspirations to get an education and to build their careers while postponing childbirth, is a faulty practice."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxHXkU8MExA
Russian propagandists drank the Kool-Aid for so long, that they can't tell the Emperor is buck naked.
What does stubbornness have to do with anything?
It’s an open secret that certain targets are avoided in this war because economics (transnational economic interests to be exact)
Yes there is inflation in Russia. Yes there is propaganda. I am not trying to deny the obvious.
What I am saying is that you seem to base your predictions on a bunch of facts in the papers. The facts that have been there all along yet the war goes on.
Please understand I am as hopeful the war will end soon as you are. The problem is that it seems the economy has more or less survived, and is now sort of two faced: at the surface it’s business as usual but behind the curtain there are a lot of wheels in motion that actually supply the war machine. It will take a while to come to a halt - but the first signs will be shortages of something pretty universal, not your typical oreo cookies or what was it you mentioned?
Also look, even the 90s with their desperation didn’t lead to maidan. Right now there are way fewer reasons.
Anyway, for all of us to understand that the end is near we need to see something pretty drastic, not a bunch of scary but empty promises about potentially destroying this oe that
Stubbornness has everything to do with it. The breakup in the Former Yugoslavia lasted five years, until NATO intervened with surgical airstrikes and a certain Ambassador pulling both parties into a meeting, complete with animation. I don't believe the Ukrainians are any less committed. Ukraine has been re-armed and upgraded, but Russia has dug in and heavily mined fortified its entire front. My fear is that this is a python vs crocodile match militarily. If anything, there are Ukrainians that have even more reason to continue the war, given what the Russian Government has done to Ukraine; so even if an official cease-fire was called, it's quite possible that individuals would continue to act (similar to the Palestinian conflict with Israel).
I believe economics, not military action, will be the decisive factor here. Ukraine has external support. Russia is running out of rabbits to pull from the hat. I won't list the precise mechanisms I believe are in play, but pretty confident that they're in Russia's 'imperial hubris' blindspot. Yes, the facts have been there all along, but realize that economic challenges take time to unfold. It's like watching everything in slow-motion, but you should see a significant difference within Russia by January.
"Over 100 mobilized troops in Chuvashia, Russia, have rebelled in the Ulyanovsk training center over the lack of payment (they are due ~$3,100) and recorded a video of their demands from the command and the government."
https://theins.ru/en/news/256626 "OMON riot police and Russian Guard troops have arrived to quell the riot."
https://youtu.be/r3wzKSDyWyQ
Although this is only the sign-up bonus (not salary), those issues are happening as well.
"Yes, my home is Russia. I live here. But my family is starving, and I am simply unable to provide for our child's school needs."
"I said ‘f••k you all!’ Like that. Yes, I said that I am against the authorities.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/19629
Again, I believe it will take two years to unfold - unless a random circumstance acts as a catalyst. Shutting down European shipping lanes to Russia is one such circumstance. In theory, I believe that could shorten the timeframe by 25 or 50%. Another catalyst could be a military breakthrough. Ukraine would need to completely destroy (not damage) the Kerch bridge. Another catalyst would be if Ukraine started attacking Russian territory.
I do have sympathy for both Ukraine and the ordinary (non-brainwashed) Russians caught in this conflict (ex. those that fled, or stayed but are persecuted by their own people), but unfortunately this still has to play out. This is why I believe it will take two years before the Russian government collapses into anarchy. This will cause other issues, so I hope I'm wrong? We'll see.
"Citadel and its current owner, Anton Cherepennikov"
"A tracking system from one Citadel subsidiary, MFI Soft, helps display information about telecom subscribers, along with statistical breakdowns of their internet traffic, on a specialized control panel for use by regional F.S.B. officers, according to one chart."
"Another MFI Soft tool, NetBeholder, can map the locations of two phones over the course of the day to discern whether they simultaneously ran into each other, indicating a potential meeting between people."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/03/technology/russia-ukraine-surveillance-tech.html
Difficult to say which of these was the issue? Both have resourcing threads that can be pulled - one economic, one military.
"Solway Investment group, a Russian enterprise that has exploited Guatemalan mines since 2011. The leader of Solway’s mining operations in Guatemala, Russian national Dmitry Kudryakov (Kudryakov)"
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1118
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed
Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.
Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.
That's a lie, a huge amount of Ukrainian grain goes to Africa. Also, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other places depend on Ukrainian grain.
And Russia didn't merely "step out of the deal" - this week they sent waves of cruise missiles in an attempt to bomb and destroy the ports and the major grain storage areas in Odesa and Mykolaiv, and are threatening to attack international shipping vessels.
Stop pretending that Russia has some kind of moral or virtuous high ground in this, it's pure villainy.
Do you know what “a deal” is? Both parties are supposed to get something. Russia’s terms under the deal were not honored. Why would they continue a deal under which they got nothing?
The Ukraine is not agreement capable, as their duplicity with the grain deal shows. This should have been apparent after the Ukraine repeatedly violated the Minsk Accords.
It makes for a tricky end to the war, since any promise the Ukraine makes would be essentially worthless.
Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger
Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.
I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.
Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.
Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?
The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.
I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.
The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.
"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo
I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.
The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.
Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ "Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"
Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296 "The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."
They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.
What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.
Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.
"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/
And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.
That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.
The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.
Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.
What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.
Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.
I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.
Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.
This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.
Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137
The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.
I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.
I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest
Russia blowing up the grain deal will not serve well for Russia's ambitions for having client states in Africa and elsewhere.
I am pretty sure the sides will reach an agreement pretty soon. If you noticed we’ve heard a lot of bark but little bite from Russia outside of bombing the Ukraine into oblivion. The rest of the world wasn’t actually harmed
Because despite all the rhetoric about starving African kids, precious little of that grain actually went to Africa.
Russia was right to step out of the deal and wrong to agree to it in the past when the Russia-focused terms were not honored.
That's a lie, a huge amount of Ukrainian grain goes to Africa. Also, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and other places depend on Ukrainian grain.
And Russia didn't merely "step out of the deal" - this week they sent waves of cruise missiles in an attempt to bomb and destroy the ports and the major grain storage areas in Odesa and Mykolaiv, and are threatening to attack international shipping vessels.
Stop pretending that Russia has some kind of moral or virtuous high ground in this, it's pure villainy.
Do you know what “a deal” is? Both parties are supposed to get something. Russia’s terms under the deal were not honored. Why would they continue a deal under which they got nothing?
That's some real mobster protection racket thinking there. Why should Russia "get something" for something that IS NOT THEIRS? Like, "hey, that's a really nice shipping port and grain silos you have there, would be a shame if something happened to them." Don't you know that bombing civilian facilities is a war crime?
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