Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Report:

Wagner has been one of the few groups that achieved any success at all in the last year - but at TREMENDOUS cost to Wagner.

The tally said that of 78,000 fighters 22,000 were killed with 40,000 more injured.

That's 62,000 casualties out of 78,000 troops.

Ukraine is fighting ferociously and is causing massive casualties to Russian invaders. No wonder Russian troops call Ukraine the "meatgrinder." Russia would be better off just quitting rather than continuing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-suffered-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-official-says-28-dead-a-further-51-wounded-totaling-62k-casualties-in-just-over-a-year/ar-AA1ea8Ur

Ukraine is taking massive casualties too.

If Russia was that badly off, we’d see better battlefield results for Ukraine and we haven’t yet.

Ukraine's loss ratios have not been as bad as Russia's. And again, sorry to disappoint you but nobody with a brain wants to go blindly charging across fields strewn with thousands of Russian mines without first making it safe to do so, which takes time. They are taking their time. And if you had been paying attention you might notice that they have been very surgical and strategic, for example specifically targeting Russian artillery and ammo stockpiles, as opposed to just randomly blasting away at everything the way the Russians have been trying to do.

No one knows for sure what their loss ratios are. It’s all projection.

Another interpretation of your “surgical and strategic” line is that Russia has built formidable defenses that are extremely hard to breach.

Yep, sure, which is why there is a steady flow of video after video showing Ukrainians clearing Russian trenches and wiping out those supposedly unbreachable defenses.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I don't know what you get out of all your Ukraine-bashing, Troll PP.

You're addressing people who know that Ukraine is not a perfect country. A lot of us responding come from Europe or have some personal or professional association with that part of the world.

We still support Ukraine. You can go blue in the face defending the indefensible, but that won't change our minds.

I'm not sure what you're getting out of posting. Maybe you're mentally ill, or you're paid by the post? Because you're sure not moving the needle.

I don’t care about moving the needle or changing your mind. Support whatever you want.

Allow me to doubt your motives. People don’t post unless they’re trying to persuade others. We’re telling you it’s not working.

There isn’t any “we”.

There's dumb pro-Russia troll, and there's the rest of us. The rest of us is "we."

This is what magical thinking looks like.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Report:

Wagner has been one of the few groups that achieved any success at all in the last year - but at TREMENDOUS cost to Wagner.

The tally said that of 78,000 fighters 22,000 were killed with 40,000 more injured.

That's 62,000 casualties out of 78,000 troops.

Ukraine is fighting ferociously and is causing massive casualties to Russian invaders. No wonder Russian troops call Ukraine the "meatgrinder." Russia would be better off just quitting rather than continuing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-suffered-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-official-says-28-dead-a-further-51-wounded-totaling-62k-casualties-in-just-over-a-year/ar-AA1ea8Ur

Ukraine is taking massive casualties too.

If Russia was that badly off, we’d see better battlefield results for Ukraine and we haven’t yet.

Ukraine's loss ratios have not been as bad as Russia's. And again, sorry to disappoint you but nobody with a brain wants to go blindly charging across fields strewn with thousands of Russian mines without first making it safe to do so, which takes time. They are taking their time. And if you had been paying attention you might notice that they have been very surgical and strategic, for example specifically targeting Russian artillery and ammo stockpiles, as opposed to just randomly blasting away at everything the way the Russians have been trying to do.

No one knows for sure what their loss ratios are. It’s all projection.

Another interpretation of your “surgical and strategic” line is that Russia has built formidable defenses that are extremely hard to breach.

Yep, sure, which is why there is a steady flow of video after video showing Ukrainians clearing Russian trenches and wiping out those supposedly unbreachable defenses.

You are exactly the target audience for these videos, you sweet summer child you.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Report:

Wagner has been one of the few groups that achieved any success at all in the last year - but at TREMENDOUS cost to Wagner.

The tally said that of 78,000 fighters 22,000 were killed with 40,000 more injured.

That's 62,000 casualties out of 78,000 troops.

Ukraine is fighting ferociously and is causing massive casualties to Russian invaders. No wonder Russian troops call Ukraine the "meatgrinder." Russia would be better off just quitting rather than continuing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-suffered-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-official-says-28-dead-a-further-51-wounded-totaling-62k-casualties-in-just-over-a-year/ar-AA1ea8Ur

Ukraine is taking massive casualties too.

If Russia was that badly off, we’d see better battlefield results for Ukraine and we haven’t yet.

Ukraine's loss ratios have not been as bad as Russia's. And again, sorry to disappoint you but nobody with a brain wants to go blindly charging across fields strewn with thousands of Russian mines without first making it safe to do so, which takes time. They are taking their time. And if you had been paying attention you might notice that they have been very surgical and strategic, for example specifically targeting Russian artillery and ammo stockpiles, as opposed to just randomly blasting away at everything the way the Russians have been trying to do.

No one knows for sure what their loss ratios are. It’s all projection.

Another interpretation of your “surgical and strategic” line is that Russia has built formidable defenses that are extremely hard to breach.

Yep, sure, which is why there is a steady flow of video after video showing Ukrainians clearing Russian trenches and wiping out those supposedly unbreachable defenses.

quora also has some informative posts too. there are lots of pics of dead Russians in many of the topics. I check in on a few Ukraine war topics now and again - some really interesting (and some pretty gruesome) information from Ukrainian perspective.

From my arm chair general seat Ukraine really needs 3x the weapons and air defense systems than they have plus air power.

Russia defense is an egg shell of mines and traps like the world has never seen; but if/when they find a way to clear or get through Russia is screwed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I don't know what you get out of all your Ukraine-bashing, Troll PP.

You're addressing people who know that Ukraine is not a perfect country. A lot of us responding come from Europe or have some personal or professional association with that part of the world.

We still support Ukraine. You can go blue in the face defending the indefensible, but that won't change our minds.

I'm not sure what you're getting out of posting. Maybe you're mentally ill, or you're paid by the post? Because you're sure not moving the needle.

I don’t care about moving the needle or changing your mind. Support whatever you want.

Allow me to doubt your motives. People don’t post unless they’re trying to persuade others. We’re telling you it’s not working.

There isn’t any “we”.

There's dumb pro-Russia troll, and there's the rest of us. The rest of us is "we."

This is what magical thinking looks like.

^ This is what dumb Russian troll thinking looks like - anything that goes against the Russian narrative is "LOL" and "magical thinking."

Cope harder, zhopoliz. You are in a distinct minority here, and that's a FACT.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
I don't know what you get out of all your Ukraine-bashing, Troll PP.

You're addressing people who know that Ukraine is not a perfect country. A lot of us responding come from Europe or have some personal or professional association with that part of the world.

We still support Ukraine. You can go blue in the face defending the indefensible, but that won't change our minds.

I'm not sure what you're getting out of posting. Maybe you're mentally ill, or you're paid by the post? Because you're sure not moving the needle.

I don’t care about moving the needle or changing your mind. Support whatever you want.

Allow me to doubt your motives. People don’t post unless they’re trying to persuade others. We’re telling you it’s not working.

There isn’t any “we”.

There's dumb pro-Russia troll, and there's the rest of us. The rest of us is "we."

This is what magical thinking looks like.

^ This is what dumb Russian troll thinking looks like - anything that goes against the Russian narrative is "LOL" and "magical thinking."

Cope harder, zhopoliz. You are in a distinct minority here, and that's a FACT.

I love when you froth at the mouth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

The one exterminating the Ukrainians is Zelensky. The longer this goes on, the more people and territory they will lose. The entire existence of Ukraine is now dependent on the fickle support of western nations.

They can pull the rug out from under them any time they want to, and suddenly Zelensky will get the Noriega/Saddam Hussein/Qaddafi treatment.

DP. I think there will be continued support for years, however modest, maybe not so modest even. Look at Israel.
However it doesn’t change the fact that the lives keep being lost.
How many years of fighting is it going to be worth it?

I don't know, but right now, Russia is abducting both Ukrainian children and senior citizens, and treating them like dog sh!t. They probably don't want that for their future, if they were to surrender and spare lives.

This is propaganda to a large extent.
Ukrainians are allowed to pass through Russia to seek asylum in the west (there are volunteers helping them), or they can resettle in Russia.
Europe is more lucrative but Russia is more familiar so to each their own

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:And I'm not saying to starve the pensioners. I'm saying that Russia's war machine would, for the most part, grind to a screeching halt.

Not before the population is starved. Priorities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This war is great for everyone but Ukraine.
I hope it goes on for however long it takes Ukraine to win….and at this rate it is going to be a few more years.

Russia losing so many males is good for the world.

Not being subjugated / exterminated / colonized by Russia is good for Ukraine. All the more reason they need to fight.

Serious question: how many Ukrainian lives can they afford to lose for this to still stand true?

Why is this a question for Ukraine? Why is the same not a question for Russia? Russia has already lost more troops and equipment in the last 2 years than it has in every single other war combined since the 1970s, to include Afghan, Chechen, Dagestan, Georgia, Syria, African conflicts and everywhere else. The Russians were able to last 20 years with the Afghan war before deciding it was unsustainable but a.) that was with the much greater might and resources, engineering, logistic and manufacturing capacity of the Soviet Union and b. that was with just a fraction of the losses that Russia is now suffering in Ukraine. As such, Russia cannot keep this going indefinitely. They cannot last 20 years. They would be lucky to last 5 years, and we're already 2 years into that.

Ukraine is fighting for its very survival. They are fighting for their identity, their language, their way of life, their will to become a part of the European community, and so much more. But what is Russia fighting for? They are fighting because Putin wills it. Because Russia wants their resources. Because of lies about "Nazis" and other stupidity. Russia's rationale for war is far weaker than Ukraine's rationale for resisting them.

This is not a question for Russia because it’s bigger and because we already know it’s not acting rationally.

Also their identity and way of life and whatnot is very similar to that of Russians. Believing otherwise is what brought all the misery on them

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s only relevant in the sense that it’s true.

There wasn’t a country called Ukraine until todays version.

Ukraine’s way of life is not that different from Russia so let’s not pretend that it is .

Learn some damn history. Ukraine has existed for over 1000 years. Moscow was founded by the Kyivan Rus - Ukrainians. Their trident symbol has been in use and part of their identity since Volodymyr the Great (958 – 15 July 1015)

You are an ignorant idiot.

DP but this is just part of the propaganda bull for Ukraine that they use to desperately prove they are not like the Russians

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine has been a sovereign, independent and European (pro-Western) country for decades! Please look at "Winter on Fire" (a documentary about the uprising against the pro-Russian government that Putin had installed)...There is an entry in Trotsky's diary where a delegation of Ukrainians came to him and asked for independence. "I said no," he wrote. Ukraine has its own identity, its own language, its own culture, despite extreme efforts by Russia (and before that, the USSR) to extinguish the country and starve the people (literally).

I mean you can say the same thing about Nagorny Karabakh and not a single person cared.

Unlike Ukraine, they never reached out to try and build friendships and alliances with us. If you want someone to help, try to first make a friend of them.

DP. Hahaha! Why would US need them?! Look at Belarus desperately trying to get rid of their dictator. Crickets from the US!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Report:

Wagner has been one of the few groups that achieved any success at all in the last year - but at TREMENDOUS cost to Wagner.

The tally said that of 78,000 fighters 22,000 were killed with 40,000 more injured.

That's 62,000 casualties out of 78,000 troops.

Ukraine is fighting ferociously and is causing massive casualties to Russian invaders. No wonder Russian troops call Ukraine the "meatgrinder." Russia would be better off just quitting rather than continuing.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/wagner-suffered-staggering-losses-in-ukraine-official-says-28-dead-a-further-51-wounded-totaling-62k-casualties-in-just-over-a-year/ar-AA1ea8Ur

Ukraine is taking massive casualties too.

If Russia was that badly off, we’d see better battlefield results for Ukraine and we haven’t yet.

Ukraine didn't start the war, though.

DP. True and they didn’t deserve to be invaded, but why did they keep prattling about wanting to be with the west and not being like Russia and blah blah? They effed around and found out.
Russia is in the wrong and shot itself i the foot with this war BUT Ukraine is in ruins and over what?! They should have played smart and not angered the bully

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Ukraine has been a sovereign, independent and European (pro-Western) country for decades! Please look at "Winter on Fire" (a documentary about the uprising against the pro-Russian government that Putin had installed)...There is an entry in Trotsky's diary where a delegation of Ukrainians came to him and asked for independence. "I said no," he wrote. Ukraine has its own identity, its own language, its own culture, despite extreme efforts by Russia (and before that, the USSR) to extinguish the country and starve the people (literally).

I mean you can say the same thing about Nagorny Karabakh and not a single person cared.

Unlike Ukraine, they never reached out to try and build friendships and alliances with us. If you want someone to help, try to first make a friend of them.

I see. So, it’s the fault of these damn Artsakhis that in the middle of food and medicine shortages, daily bombings, and the permanent threat of ethnic cleansing by the Azeris, they, like, didn’t make time to romance you?

GTFO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1680850601779900416/mediaviewer

Even Eric Schmidt on Zakaria — pro Ukraine slant people - are waking up that the “counteroffensive” is a nothing burger

Unless we see something significant by September, prepare for another ten years of stalemate.

I can't see Putin withdrawing fully any time soon with NATO now essentially saying yes to Ukraine.

Nothingburger? Stalemate? You're looking in all the wrong places.

Look carefully at this video. It was taken outside of Soledar near the salt mine. There is only one place near Soledar with railroad tracks, which is parallel to T0513. At [2:40 / 6:17] one of the reporters was shot. It looks like the Russians in Bakhmut will be surrounded soon?

https://www.1tv.ru/news/2023-01-20/445679-s_emochnaya_gruppa_pervogo_kanala_i_drugie_zhurnalisty_popali_pod_obstrel_pod_soledarom

The bridge attack will also do much to bog down Russian logistics.



I don't think Putin can last 10 years. I'm betting on two. It's not a military 'win' thing, it's a 'domestic turmoil' thing. There's just too much churn inside Russia.

The internal Russian witch hunt fallout from Wagner seems to be turning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs against the Ministry of Internal Affairs? The only reason why they'd do something like this is if Internal Affairs wasn't reporting who had foreign passports or residence permits.

"The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a draft order, according to which citizens of the Russian Federation who have received a residence permit or citizenship of another country will be required to notify Russian embassies and consulates within 60 days. Previously it was necessary to notify only the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and only if the Russian came to the Federation. Since 2014 there has been an article in the criminal code according to which untimely notification is punished by Correctional Labor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI7iyttNSvo

I believe this information would be useful for only one reason - 'house-cleaning' - e.g. house-by-house sweeps of 'disloyal' Russian families. (e.g. "the family member of an Enemy of the State"). Hilter learned this tactic from Stalin's Cheka when he swept through the Jewish Polish slums in 1939; Röhm Purge, the “Night of the Long Knives." Hope I'm wrong.

The Russian propaganda is still in disarray. Russian's are not used to mixed messaging. It's like a whip and glove show.

Iron Beaver (Simonyan): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKkOkt4NDAQ
"Why couldn't you live with us? What was so bad about it?"
"Who mistreated you? Who bothered you? Here is a question - why do they hate us so much? Why? Unlike them, we did not wage any wars of conquest. We didn't subjugate anyone, we didn't threaten anyone!"

Iron Maiden (Skabeeva): https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1665240710038327296
"The Ukrainian question has to be solved once and for all. What comes to mind right now, I will say it again, is to destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and as a deterrent."

They are not required to notify of another citizenship! They MAY if they want to.
The requirement exists too but only if you arrive in Russia, stay there long enough and are a resident (which isn’t defined in this case but there are interpretations). Many people don’t report and don’t get in trouble, and the law was in existence for a few years now.

What I am saying is that you have no understanding of how the sausage is made in Russia.
There will be no internal turmoil.
Putin will die in 5-10 years and that’s the only hope. It will take about the same time as russia being economically incapacitated enough which is another hope.

Sausage-making? That's the State Duma's job.

"THE STATE DUMA FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION Increases the age limit for conscripts in the reserve. For citizens with military ranks of senior officers, it will be 65 years, for junior officers - 60 years, and for those with other ranks - 55 years."
"The age limit for such persons liable for military service belonging to the first category is increased from 35 to 40 years, for the second category - from 45 to 50 years, for the third - from 50 to 55 years."
http://duma.gov.ru/news/57528/

And no, I doubt it will take 5-10 years for Russia to be economically incapacitated. I think it's closer to two.

"As of January 1, 2023, retirees in Russia received a gross pension of approximately 19.3 thousand Russian rubles on average, or 236 U.S. dollars per month at the exchange rate as of April 18, 2023. The amount of retirement benefits increased by roughly 2,438 Russian rubles compared to the previous year"
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093950/average-monthly-retirement-benefit-value-russia/#:~:text=As%20of%20January%201%2C%202023,compared%20to%20the%20previous%20year.

That's a 12% increase in one year. However, the question to ask is why the Russian Government would raise pensions 12% if the Russian Central Bank lowered it's inflation forecast to less than half that amount? I believe that Russian inflation (at least for imported goods, not domestic goods) is easily 20%.

"The bank also lowered its year-end inflation forecast to 4.5-6.5% from 5.0-7.0%"
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/russian-central-bank-keeps-key-interest-rate-75-2023-04-28/#:~:text=The%20bank%20also%20lowered%20its,%2447%20billion%20from%20%2466%20billion.

https://cdn.statcdn.com/Statistic/1090000/1093950-blank-754.png

If in April (three months ago) 19,300 Rub was worth USD$236, today it's worth USD$209.90, according to today's exchange rate.

In this clip of a Russian grocery store taken this week, the photographer was careful to not show the meat or seafood section.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yeNbBWBSSvQ

The clip is fuzzy, with most prices unreadable. However, there was a shot at the end of the 24 ct Ferrero Rocher candy claiming to be only 1039 Rub (USD$11.30 - it's about the same price here in the US - however, it should be much cheaper in Europe, not the same price!). Making an inaccurate generalization - the point is that in April, the average Russian pensioner could have splurged their entire monthly paycheck and purchased 20 boxes of candy - but today, only 18. That's about a 10% inflation rate (at least for non-domestic goods) in just one month. Add to that what the price of Ferrero Rocher is in europe (usually about 8 or 9 euros, or about USD$ 9 or 10), that's another 10 or 15% difference.

Candy is easy to get and commonly available, so imagine the cost of a scarce commodity. That's why I think imported goods could easily be more than 20%.

What’s your point? I have friends and family there. There is plenty of meat and even seafood. Seafood isn’t great for the most part but it never was.
Pensioners don’t eat ferrero roche.
Prices are rising and people are getting poorer in general.
However everything is available.
I don’t see why the economy will collapse in 2 years. So far it’s been faring better than predicted.

Trust me id love the war to stop in 2 years. However I think the grind will go on. You underestimate the ability of Russian pensioners to live on bread and potatoes. Russia has done a surprisingly good job of channeling the energy of those who might be unhappy AND capable of bringing change. Yes it includes window falls and poisoning but not only.

I don’t support the russia cause but I am amazed at how surprisingly well they are faring so far.

Russia has proven resourceful, but I believe the candle is burning. I also think there are two recent developments that have the potential to tip the scales even further.

"Ukraine responds reciprocally to Russian blackmail, will consider “vessels heading to Russian ports as potential carriers of military cargo”"
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/07/20/ukraine-responds-reciprocally-to-russian-blackmail-will-consider-vessels-heading-to-russian-ports-as-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo/

"Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports"
https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo

This is a significant development. It would not be difficult for Ukraine to cut off Russian shipping through the Black Sea. The Russians have already laid mines and Russia would be economically vulnerable if shipping to Russia was cut off. Although I couldn't find the specific breakdown of ship types and number of ships making calls to Russian ports, it's clear there are ample targets.

"In 2021, 38,551 ships transited Bosphorus of the Turkish Straights (down from 43,999 in 2018)."
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1251644/number-of-transits-through-the-turkish-straits/

"COMMERCIAL VESSELS MADE 10,550 CALLS TO BLACK SEA PORTS IN RUSSIA, TURKEY, BULGARIA, ROMANIA, UKRAINE, GEORGIA AND MOLDOVA IN THE SECOND QUARTER ACCORDING TO VESSEL TRACKING DATA FROM LLOYD’S LIST INTELLIGENCE."
https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1141687/Black-Sea-arrivals-rising-amid-changing-trade-dynamics

Q2 2022
1. Russia 5043
2. Romania 2359
3. Turkey 1167
4. Bulgaria 880
5. Ukraine 610
6. Georgia 354
7. Moldova 137

The registries of these ships pre-war were normally from Greece, Netherlands, Marshall Islands, Switzerland, Japan, Germany, Italy, Hong Kong, Singapore. Post Q2 2022, the registries significantly increased of Bahamas, Unknown Owner, Cyprus, Lebanon, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Marshall Islands, Turkey, Russia, Romania, Egypt, Switzerland.

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/-/media/lloyds-list/images/ukraine-russia-conflict/black_sea.jpg

I believe that if Ukraine does stop Russian shipping through the Black Sea, Russia could economically collapse? Russia just can't move cargo from the Pacific to the Atlantic, or overland that easily. Cutting off Russian shipping in Europe could drastically affect the Russian Economy.

I think it’s more for show and they wiii negotiate since so many oligarchs on both sides have economic interest

Now that's magical thinking! If you're the one who claimed to have relatives in Russia, you tell me - just how stubborn is your typical Slav? Are they the live-and-let-live, bygones-be-bygones, turn-the-pther-cheek types? Hmm? lol

Besides, there's a lot of wheels in motion today.

"Moscow took unexpectedly sharp action to curb inflation."
"Russia’s central bank took the unexpected step of raising its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, to 8.5 percent from 7.5 percent."
"the bank warned that further increases were likely."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/world/europe/russia-interest-rate-inflation.html

If you don't know what this means, just sit tight. I think my hunch about Russia in hyperinflation might be correct. That's why I think the most recent Russian Government threats about the Black Sea are silly. All Ukraine needs to do is 'reciprocate' and Russia is screwed, since I believe Russia is highly dependent on the ships calling on Russian ports in the Black Sea (more so than Ukraine is). Russia has a huge logistical hurdle transporting goods over land. It's just too big and it takes a lot of fuel and vehicles to transport goods via land.

"Starting on July 20th, all ships in the waters of the Black Sea sailing to Ukrainian ports will be viewed as potential carriers of military cargo."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxHXkU8MExA

"This would be a covert method in the open. We can very easily block the area and declare it a zone of military actions, as is customary in these situations. If any merchant vessels show up there and don't respond to the "friend or foe" signal, they would simply be destroyed, including trade ships."
"We should simply make this decision"

Olga Skabeyeva: "We're ready to go war with Turkey?"
"There's also Erdoğan claiming the Black Sea."
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-state-tv-debates-attacking-nato-countries-1814639

As far as Ukraine taking massive casualties, I look at facts, not opinions. Is Ukraine training schoolchildren military skills? Does Ukraine tell women to ditch school and get knocked up because education is "a faulty practice"?

"September 1, schoolchildren will learn the basics of the combat use of drones at the lessons of basic military training"
"In a response to Sheikin from First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov (available to RIA Novosti), it is said that the program provides for the study of "types, purpose, performance characteristics and general structure, reconnaissance of the area and methods of countering enemy UAVs."
https://ria.ru/20230721/shkolniki-1885395455.html

"Mikhail Murashko [Russia's Minister of Health] literally said that women's aspirations to get an education and to build their careers while postponing childbirth, is a faulty practice."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxHXkU8MExA

Russian propagandists drank the Kool-Aid for so long, that they can't tell the Emperor is buck naked.