Concerned about buying in WJ cluster because of re-zoning

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Some of the posts in this thread are out of line, but 100K house price reduction can be hard for families stretching it to get to WJ right now. Everyone doesn't make 400K of 800K HHI cited above in this thread. 100K reduction may not matter than much if you hake 400-800K. Some perspective is needed from both sides.

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

Homes in the Town of Kensington within walking distance to the shops, Safeway and MARC are still going to be expensive because of the location. Homes near Rockville Pike, Pike and Rose, the White Flint development and two Metros are still going to be expensive because of location. Even homes in Alta Vista will still be expensive because of their proximity to Bethesda and it's $2M+ homes.

Location, location, location. The only area I can see maybe taking a hit maybe is the area zoned for Farmland, which isn't close to really anything except 270.

You only need to compare home prices in Kensington to North Kensington a block or two north.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/10608-Lexington-Ct-20895/home/10962729

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/3805-Archer-Pl-20895/home/11030138

It’s amazing how as soon as you cross the border out of Kensington that prices fall. Look at Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village for another example.

I take your point but Randolph Hills is a much better comparison to Garrett Park Estates. The houses and lots in Veirs Mill Village are SO TINY and there are no driveways and the streets are really narrow and hilly - it’s not really comparable to anything else.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Some of the posts in this thread are out of line, but 100K house price reduction can be hard for families stretching it to get to WJ right now. Everyone doesn't make 400K of 800K HHI cited above in this thread. 100K reduction may not matter than much if you hake 400-800K. Some perspective is needed from both sides.

You'er delusional if you think houses in the WJ area are going to decrease by $100,000. If schools were so central to housing prices homes in Takoma Park wouldn't be selling for $1M. That's because it's about location first and foremost, and traffic is going to be much worse 3-4 years from now when Woodward opens, which is going to make location even more important.

Homes in the Town of Kensington within walking distance to the shops, Safeway and MARC are still going to be expensive because of the location. Homes near Rockville Pike, Pike and Rose, the White Flint development and two Metros are still going to be expensive because of location. Even homes in Alta Vista will still be expensive because of their proximity to Bethesda and it's $2M+ homes.

Location, location, location. The only area I can see maybe taking a hit maybe is the area zoned for Farmland, which isn't close to really anything except 270.

You only need to compare home prices in Kensington to North Kensington a block or two north.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/10608-Lexington-Ct-20895/home/10962729

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/3805-Archer-Pl-20895/home/11030138

It’s amazing how as soon as you cross the border out of Kensington that prices fall. Look at Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village for another example.

I take your point but Randolph Hills is a much better comparison to Garrett Park Estates. The houses and lots in Veirs Mill Village are SO TINY and there are no driveways and the streets are really narrow and hilly - it’s not really comparable to anything else.

Yes but Viers Mill Village is situated right between Kensington and Garrett park. Yes it's hilly and the houses are tiny (but comparable to Garrett Park Estates which is why I mentioned it) but that doesn't account for the price differences. I mean you literally have very expensive homes East, South, and West of Viers Mill Village. It's almost encircled in more expensive areas yet it is WAY cheaper. Way more than to account for just the hills.

[Anonymous]

For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

Simply moving a few hundred kids on WJ's eastern boundary into a new school that has capacity will not impact the quality of education at WJ or that offered at the new school. The school ratings people are so concerned about hardly reflect the quality of education at these schools and are simply a proxy for their demographics which will likely be similar at both schools given that they draw from the same areas.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

Simply moving a few hundred kids on WJ's eastern boundary into a new school that has capacity will not impact the quality of education at WJ or that offered at the new school. The school ratings people are so concerned about hardly reflect the quality of education at these schools and are simply a proxy for their demographics which will likely be similar at both schools given that they draw from the same areas.

Except it's likely they'll use Woodward to alleviate overcrowding from a bunch of high schools and not just WJ. This means that people that own homes formerly in WJ, now in Woodward, are going to see home prices drop significantly because the demographics are going to be VERY DIFFERENT. They will NOT draw from the same areas.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Study-Group-To-Look-at-Using-Woodward-High-To-Deal-With-Capacity-Crunch-at-Eight-Schools/
BCC, Blair, Einstein, WJ, Kennedy, Northwood, Whitman, Wheaton are all listed. This will be a huge redistricting that will redraw the lines of many high schools.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/
One major addition to this year’s capital lineup is an effort to overhaul and reopen the old Woodward High School, a move designed to relieve crowding in the Walter Johnson Cluster and in the Downcounty Consortium.

[Anonymous]

Woodward will also likely house a new special program/magnet. Part of the Woodward planning meetings from last spring was getting input from communities about what special programming families were interested in.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

Simply moving a few hundred kids on WJ's eastern boundary into a new school that has capacity will not impact the quality of education at WJ or that offered at the new school. The school ratings people are so concerned about hardly reflect the quality of education at these schools and are simply a proxy for their demographics which will likely be similar at both schools given that they draw from the same areas.

Except it's likely they'll use Woodward to alleviate overcrowding from a bunch of high schools and not just WJ. This means that people that own homes formerly in WJ, now in Woodward, are going to see home prices drop significantly because the demographics are going to be VERY DIFFERENT. They will NOT draw from the same areas.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Study-Group-To-Look-at-Using-Woodward-High-To-Deal-With-Capacity-Crunch-at-Eight-Schools/
BCC, Blair, Einstein, WJ, Kennedy, Northwood, Whitman, Wheaton are all listed. This will be a huge redistricting that will redraw the lines of many high schools.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/
One major addition to this year’s capital lineup is an effort to overhaul and reopen the old Woodward High School, a move designed to relieve crowding in the Walter Johnson Cluster and in the Downcounty Consortium.

Although I agree there will be some redistricting, I think it's premature to conclude that will result in a drop in real-estate values. Woodward will help alleviate overcrowding at a number of nearby schools based on the county's projections.

The neighborhoods that ultimately make up its boundary will be fairly comparable to the nearby schools since that's simply a function of its demographics. My guess is Woodward with a magnet program will be a 9 out of the gate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

Simply moving a few hundred kids on WJ's eastern boundary into a new school that has capacity will not impact the quality of education at WJ or that offered at the new school. The school ratings people are so concerned about hardly reflect the quality of education at these schools and are simply a proxy for their demographics which will likely be similar at both schools given that they draw from the same areas.

Except it's likely they'll use Woodward to alleviate overcrowding from a bunch of high schools and not just WJ. This means that people that own homes formerly in WJ, now in Woodward, are going to see home prices drop significantly because the demographics are going to be VERY DIFFERENT. They will NOT draw from the same areas.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Study-Group-To-Look-at-Using-Woodward-High-To-Deal-With-Capacity-Crunch-at-Eight-Schools/
BCC, Blair, Einstein, WJ, Kennedy, Northwood, Whitman, Wheaton are all listed. This will be a huge redistricting that will redraw the lines of many high schools.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/
One major addition to this year’s capital lineup is an effort to overhaul and reopen the old Woodward High School, a move designed to relieve crowding in the Walter Johnson Cluster and in the Downcounty Consortium.

Northwood is getting a 1200 expansion which will address overcrowding there and the majority of overcrowding at nearby Blair.

Kennedy is also getting an addition that should solve its issues.

Given Woodward's proximity to WJ, B-CC, and Einstein it's a safe bet it will shore up any capacity issues there.

That only leaves out Wheaton and a few hundred seats at Blair for which there isn't an obvious solution to me, but doesn't mean there isn't one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

Simply moving a few hundred kids on WJ's eastern boundary into a new school that has capacity will not impact the quality of education at WJ or that offered at the new school. The school ratings people are so concerned about hardly reflect the quality of education at these schools and are simply a proxy for their demographics which will likely be similar at both schools given that they draw from the same areas.

Except it's likely they'll use Woodward to alleviate overcrowding from a bunch of high schools and not just WJ. This means that people that own homes formerly in WJ, now in Woodward, are going to see home prices drop significantly because the demographics are going to be VERY DIFFERENT. They will NOT draw from the same areas.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Study-Group-To-Look-at-Using-Woodward-High-To-Deal-With-Capacity-Crunch-at-Eight-Schools/
BCC, Blair, Einstein, WJ, Kennedy, Northwood, Whitman, Wheaton are all listed. This will be a huge redistricting that will redraw the lines of many high schools.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/
One major addition to this year’s capital lineup is an effort to overhaul and reopen the old Woodward High School, a move designed to relieve crowding in the Walter Johnson Cluster and in the Downcounty Consortium.

Although I agree there will be some redistricting, I think it's premature to conclude that will result in a drop in real-estate values. Woodward will help alleviate overcrowding at a number of nearby schools based on the county's projections.

The neighborhoods that ultimately make up its boundary will be fairly comparable to the nearby schools since that's simply a function of its demographics. My guess is Woodward with a magnet program will be a 9 out of the gate.

Einstein is 2 or 3 blocks from Kensington. They're busing those kids all the way to WJ. I think with so many lines being redrawn, the folks in Kensington are not going to be happy and they don't have the political clout of Bethesda or Chevy Chase. The town of Kensington has a very low population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

Simply moving a few hundred kids on WJ's eastern boundary into a new school that has capacity will not impact the quality of education at WJ or that offered at the new school. The school ratings people are so concerned about hardly reflect the quality of education at these schools and are simply a proxy for their demographics which will likely be similar at both schools given that they draw from the same areas.

Except it's likely they'll use Woodward to alleviate overcrowding from a bunch of high schools and not just WJ. This means that people that own homes formerly in WJ, now in Woodward, are going to see home prices drop significantly because the demographics are going to be VERY DIFFERENT. They will NOT draw from the same areas.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Study-Group-To-Look-at-Using-Woodward-High-To-Deal-With-Capacity-Crunch-at-Eight-Schools/
BCC, Blair, Einstein, WJ, Kennedy, Northwood, Whitman, Wheaton are all listed. This will be a huge redistricting that will redraw the lines of many high schools.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/
One major addition to this year’s capital lineup is an effort to overhaul and reopen the old Woodward High School, a move designed to relieve crowding in the Walter Johnson Cluster and in the Downcounty Consortium.

Although I agree there will be some redistricting, I think it's premature to conclude that will result in a drop in real-estate values. Woodward will help alleviate overcrowding at a number of nearby schools based on the county's projections.

The neighborhoods that ultimately make up its boundary will be fairly comparable to the nearby schools since that's simply a function of its demographics. My guess is Woodward with a magnet program will be a 9 out of the gate.

Einstein is 2 or 3 blocks from Kensington. They're busing those kids all the way to WJ. I think with so many lines being redrawn, the folks in Kensington are not going to be happy and they don't have the political clout of Bethesda or Chevy Chase. The town of Kensington has a very low population.

The county's makeup is very different now than it was even 20 years ago. If the BOE makes decisions that are in the interests of a few affluent areas at everyone else's expense, they can expect torches and pitchforks at their meetings going forward.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For a comparison of Garrett Park Estates vs Viers Mill Village.

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Kensington/4905-Flanders-Ave-20895/home/10502258

https://www.redfin.com/MD/Silver-Spring/11510-Goodloe-Rd-20906/home/11002661

The main difference is the school system.

School makes a huge difference for middle class household. I don't think this is a hard logic to comprehend. No matter how many other factors remain the same, but if you change WJ to an average school, prices will take a hit. People listing bunch of factors going for WJ boundary are missing a simple point. Those factors are right now present with a great school. If you keep everything else same and replace great school with an average school, it's irrational to think that it will have no impact on house prices.

And if you do nothing about WJ being 800 over capacity it will also be a crappy school.

Simply moving a few hundred kids on WJ's eastern boundary into a new school that has capacity will not impact the quality of education at WJ or that offered at the new school. The school ratings people are so concerned about hardly reflect the quality of education at these schools and are simply a proxy for their demographics which will likely be similar at both schools given that they draw from the same areas.

Except it's likely they'll use Woodward to alleviate overcrowding from a bunch of high schools and not just WJ. This means that people that own homes formerly in WJ, now in Woodward, are going to see home prices drop significantly because the demographics are going to be VERY DIFFERENT. They will NOT draw from the same areas.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Study-Group-To-Look-at-Using-Woodward-High-To-Deal-With-Capacity-Crunch-at-Eight-Schools/
BCC, Blair, Einstein, WJ, Kennedy, Northwood, Whitman, Wheaton are all listed. This will be a huge redistricting that will redraw the lines of many high schools.

http://www.bethesdamagazine.com/Bethesda-Beat/2017/Funding-To-Reopen-Woodward-High-Appears-in-MCPS-Superintendents-New-Budget-Plan/
One major addition to this year’s capital lineup is an effort to overhaul and reopen the old Woodward High School, a move designed to relieve crowding in the Walter Johnson Cluster and in the Downcounty Consortium.

Although I agree there will be some redistricting, I think it's premature to conclude that will result in a drop in real-estate values. Woodward will help alleviate overcrowding at a number of nearby schools based on the county's projections.

The neighborhoods that ultimately make up its boundary will be fairly comparable to the nearby schools since that's simply a function of its demographics. My guess is Woodward with a magnet program will be a 9 out of the gate.

Einstein is 2 or 3 blocks from Kensington. They're busing those kids all the way to WJ. I think with so many lines being redrawn, the folks in Kensington are not going to be happy and they don't have the political clout of Bethesda or Chevy Chase. The town of Kensington has a very low population.

The county's makeup is very different now than it was even 20 years ago. If the BOE makes decisions that are in the interests of a few affluent areas at everyone else's expense, they can expect torches and pitchforks at their meetings going forward.

Oh I agree and it's why I'm saying that I believe people are going to be surprised with the redistricting. Many people will not be happy. If I were a resident of some of these areas that attends a W school but is very close to a poorly rated school then I would consider moving before redistricting. Of course, I couldn't afford to lose the equity. I'd need it for my next home. Some people don't have to worry about that so they can wait and see.

[Anonymous]

Although parts of Kensington might be closer to Einstein, Einstein will already be around 800 over capacity by 2022.They can't redraw its boundary to make more sense because there simply isn't a school in that part of the county with capacity for the thousands of kids who go there now. Point being is Einstein's boundary is likely to shrink not grow.

Although a school like Woodward will draw from several schools, the county isn't oblivious to the politics. If I were a betting man, I'd wager they'll add 1-2 highly in demand magnet programs there like another SMAC or IB.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Question for the hysterics in this thread who think WJ and Woodward are going to somehow both turn into 4/10 schools and the whole real estate market in North Bethesda, Garrett Park and Kensington is going to crash: Can you please explain the logic behind MoCo and the state government purposefully tanking two public high schools in an area that they're priming as the main site in the state for Amazon's HQ2? That makes absolutely no sense at all.

Look at the map. The only elementary schools that make sense from the DCC to go to Woodward are either Rock View ES or Viers Mill ES. Combining kids from these two elementaries with kids from WJ and some kids from BCC is not going to result in test scores plummeting and the high school being a 4/10 and your property values plummeting. Langley Park is zoned for Blair and a lot of kids in Blair are excelling and home prices in Takoma Park are booming. Calm down. You're living in one of the most desirable counties in the entire country, in one of the most desirable public school districts in the area and you're close to a city that is recession proof. Your home values are going to be fine and your kids are going to be alright. Breathe.

This guy nails it.