Is Putin really crazy, like #45 crazy, or is it mental deterioration?

[Anonymous]

The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's trying to get Lukashenko to participate.

15:27 again. And Lukashenko will, they are just waiting for the right timing.

Also, today Russians kidnaped the mayor of Melitopol. Putin has lots and lots of tricks up his sleeve folks while the US is thinking about shrimp and vodka bans.

EU and US are in a terrible position as they are at this point dealing with a rogue player.

Hmm, did we not know he was rouge when jailed Khadarkovsky? Or when he killed Magnitsky? Or when he shot Nemtsov? Or when he sent killers with polonium tea to Litvenenko?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

This sounds heartbreaking.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

That's not clear at all. It seems to be the other way around, currently.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

That's not clear at all. It seems to be the other way around, currently.

It’s sadly absolutely clear. I don’t mean that they will end up with a political victory — that’s highly, highly unlikely. But Russia only has 30% of its military capability devoted to Ukraine right now. They are #2 in firepower globally; Ukraine is something like #35. It’s the sad reality.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

That's not clear at all. It seems to be the other way around, currently.

It’s sadly absolutely clear. I don’t mean that they will end up with a political victory — that’s highly, highly unlikely. But Russia only has 30% of its military capability devoted to Ukraine right now. They are #2 in firepower globally; Ukraine is something like #35. It’s the sad reality.

None of those numbers are correct. Ukraine is receiving a steady supply of modern military weapons. Russia has already used most of their "modern" tanks and trucks, they've lost their paratroopers, a majority of their army is in or near Ukraine, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

He doesn't have it. The purges have started.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

That's not clear at all. It seems to be the other way around, currently.

It’s sadly absolutely clear. I don’t mean that they will end up with a political victory — that’s highly, highly unlikely. But Russia only has 30% of its military capability devoted to Ukraine right now. They are #2 in firepower globally; Ukraine is something like #35. It’s the sad reality.

None of those numbers are correct. Ukraine is receiving a steady supply of modern military weapons. Russia has already used most of their "modern" tanks and trucks, they've lost their paratroopers, a majority of their army is in or near Ukraine, etc.

Show me different numbers then.

This is where I got firepower: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php
Ukraine is #22.
Russia is #2

In terms of personnel, Russia has about 190K in Ukraine. They have 900,000 active duty troops.
My understanding is that they have not yet deployed their most modern combat aircraft.
Oryx estimated that Russia has lost 184 tanks. They have 9780.

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-do-militaries-russia-and-ukraine-stack
https://www.newsweek.com/how-many-tanks-has-russia-lost-ukraine-1687207

If you disagree with these numbers, please show the data.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

He doesn't have it. The purges have started.

Citation, please.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:He's trying to get Lukashenko to participate.

15:27 again. And Lukashenko will, they are just waiting for the right timing.

Also, today Russians kidnaped the mayor of Melitopol. Putin has lots and lots of tricks up his sleeve folks while the US is thinking about shrimp and vodka bans.

EU and US are in a terrible position as they are at this point dealing with a rogue player.

Hmm, did we not know he was rouge when jailed Khadarkovsky? Or when he killed Magnitsky? Or when he shot Nemtsov? Or when he sent killers with polonium tea to Litvenenko?

No???

Vast majority of western politicians and analysts say he will not cross this line or that line as he kept crossing them. I don't think they understand they are dealing with a mob boss.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

He doesn't have it. The purges have started.

Well Lenin and Stalin had plenty of those purges. When you find out that your predecessor was shot in the back of the head you figure out very quickly how to become a loyalist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war may have not been going to plan but that is not an issue for a Russian leader, they throw at a war everything it takes.

Other upsides for Putin. 1) He rids the country of smart and educated people who most likely to oppose him 2) great opportunity to increase military force as poor Russians who become poorer and more propagandized sign on the dotted line to defend mother Russia.

Putin has also done a very clever thing, he has cast this as a war of the West against Russia. His support at home will only increase as the sanctions hit harder and the propaganda reaches a fever pitch.

Wow, the Russian propagandists are now arguing Putin is a genius for blundering into a military quagmire. Truly astounding.

DP. What I think is even more astounding is that some Russian propagandists (actual Russian propagandists) are admitting what a disaster this is and are putting forward an out - saying that the "demilitarization" goal in Ukraine has been met and that it's time to pack up and come home. There are secret communications among the Russian populace about what is happening ,but even more importantly, some public statements about quitting in Ukraine.

Not a Russian propagandist at all.

Obviously Russians blundered the invasion. Obviously Russian army is having issues. But you have to be very naive to believe that they will not/have not learned and are changing plans, and that Putin is not capitalizing on the current environment. Not only is he doing that, he is also dictating the terms with the West.

There was an article in the Financial Times today by Anatol Lieven, in line with my thinking.

He's made zero headway on dictating his terms. But the west is successfully imposing more and more strictures on him and at this point the west is starting to laugh at him.

He is (granted very slowly) getting what he wants and neutering the West's response. He has been setting the tone in this war since the beginning. He put the nuclear card on the table right at the outset, he has gotten US and EU to publicly declare they will not send troops, or missiles or planes or enforce a No Fly zone. He is bombarding hospitals and schools and sieging cities and not allowing humanitarian corridors. He has seized Nuclear Plants and disconnected them from the grid, he is building the narrative for his false flag chemical attacks that are soon coming. He has absolutely dictated the terms of engagement.

People think that Russia will collapse because of the sanctions, nope they will regroup, pivot to China, India and Middle Eastern countries for trade in exchange for Russia's commodities. The Russian people will suffer but Russia's elites know how to subdue the masses.

EU will have to figure out what to do with tens of millions of refugees as the conflict pushes further and close to the Polish border. This is not about Ukraine anymore. This is Putin's war with the West.

I agree with this
I think people are misinterpreting Putin's actions and motives.

As for China, they speak out of both sides of th or mouth.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The war has certainly gone worse for Putin than he expected, but the military is making some progress. They’ve taken at least 4 cities in southern Ukraine and one in the northeast. They’ve surrounded Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy — all strategically important cities. They’re getting closer to Kyiv.

In a war of attrition, Russia has the clear advantage.

They do in regards to Ukraine. Although the Ukrainians will bleed them dry. They cannot control the country or the people. They can only kill them. There is no end game militarily except total annihilation. They have unified Ukraine just as they have unified the developed world. Even the Russian speaking parts hate them now.

They do not in terms of themselves. The internal pressure is getting worse. The internal paranoia has set in. The economic sanctions are going to decimate their economy. Globally they wil be reduced to nothing more than an indentured servant to China if they continue. The window to escape that fate is rapidly closing. The developed world doesn't need what they have. Their oil is available in Venezuela, Iran, Mexico and Canada. Their bauxite (aluminum) in Australia and Guinea. Nickel in Indonesia. American farmers can switch back to wheat from corn. Their gas from the US and Qatar. Everything they have can be found elsewhere. Once the market switches to those sources it won't look back.

At home, as long as Putin retains the loyalty of the security services and military, he will remain in power. That’s really the only thing that matters at the end of the day.

He doesn't have it. The purges have started.

Well Lenin and Stalin had plenty of those purges. When you find out that your predecessor was shot in the back of the head you figure out very quickly how to become a loyalist.

No. You figure out how to keep your head down and look for an exit strategy.

Loyalty does not exist in an authoritarian kleptocray. There is only self-interest. For many that means compliance. For those potentially in the cross hairs that means positioning.