Ohhh this is getting good. I wonder what he’d take to NOT switch over? A dead BBB Act maybe? The Dems would do anything to prevent this - their ability to bring anything to the table or even continue voting in judges is at stake. |
If he switches - it’s 51 to 49 in R favor. No more tie-breaker. Touché. |
The only way Manchin switches is if he’s planning to retire from politics entirely after 2024. It’s an empty threat. |
What makes you think he wouldn't run as a Republican and win in West Virginia? He's already the only Democrat who can get re-elected. Or he could just go back to being their Governor again. |
Okay but they can pass that piece of bloated crap and it'll come to the Senate and he'll vote it down. Sounds like they shot themselves in the foot for dramatics. |
Well, Manchin just got humiliated on the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. Seems he’s not so good at cutting bipartisan deals. Fool. |
If he switches, he will get primaried by a more conservative Republican. When he’s facing primary voters who slew more conservative than average for West Virginia, he will lose. |
Manchin is doing everything in his power to tank this thing. By putting popular proposals like paid leave back in, they neutralize themselves from attacks back home that they abandoned this as a policy priority. And then when it goes to the Senate with paid leave in place, Manchin will take the heat for rejecting a popular proposal. Manchin wants this to be a compromise so he doesn’t have to accept responsibility for unpopular choices. House Democrats aren’t letting him hide behind them anymore. |
He received more votes as a Democrat primary challenger than the top three Republican challengers combined. I think he could win either way. |
I will amend this slightly. It’s also possible Manchin switches if Democrats have told him they’re done with him - no more committee seats, no more fundraising assistance, no more seat at the table when the real negotiations occur. If they are preparing to completely ice him out, he may see switching parties as his only possible lifeline, tenuous as it may be. |
Did you see Sanders deliberately not showing up for a committee vote that Manchin needed today? Its closer than you think. |
That was over 10 years ago, when he also won the general election by 10 points. In 2018, he only won by 3 points so his popularity there is falling. Since then he voted two to impeach Trump, which really didn’t endear him to WVa Republicans. Joe Manchin is going to face a very tough race in 2024 either way. |
Why would the Republicans give him anything prestigious? He only has value as long as he is a Dem holding other Dems up, and forcing the other Dems to negotiate. He loses all of that the second he switches to Republican. |