How do you determine safety/ targets for your kid?

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:How do you/ your kid/ counselor come up with a list of safety and target school? I am the OP in the other post asking for a reasonable list for my son. Based on the comments, it seems like most people don’t utilize their schools recent naviance/ Scoir data and mostly rely on CDS.

Just curious what data source do you use to come up with a list of safeties and targets?


People make fun of Niche, but I think getting a Niche log-in account was very helpful.

The truth is: My son did all the work. I just did the research I did because I enjoyed understanding what was going on.

Naviance didn’t show anything useful about any school but the state flagship.

The Niche log-in account was much better because it showed admissions scattergram by major. Even if those are based on partial, incomplete data, at least they give you a rough idea of how things work.

And, if you look at a school entry on Niche, it will then show you a list of similar schools.

I think another strategy is to think about where your kid might want to live and make the safeties non-selective schools in those communities.

Example: Many cities have nice, affordable Jesuit colleges that are hungry for applicants and have no brand awareness whatsoever outside of those cities. But everyone in one of those cities knows about the college and has warm thoughts about it. So, it might be a great option for a student who’d be happy to settle down in that city.
Anonymous
CDS is excellent starting point.

Targets should have admission rates of 25-30%+, your kid's stats should be 50%+.
Safety should have admission rates of 50-60%+, your kid's stats should be 75%+.
Also good to find 1 or 2 with acceptance rates of 75%+ and your kid's stats of 75%+.

All need to be schools your kid actually likes and would be excited to attend and that you can AFFORD.

Remember anything with less than 20-25% acceptance rate is a REACH for anyone. Nice to attempt, but never fall in love and except to actually get accepted
Anonymous
We used Naviance to get an idea of acceptances for his school, factored in that his school has magnet program that skews results, reviewed College Scorecard for average scores/GPA, again factored in that TO schools will have skewed test scores, slightly factored in unusual EC awards, and went from there. It's not a one and done kind of thing - every kid is different and the calculators may tell you whether you are in the ballpark but are, by no means, ultimate predictors.
Anonymous
We got a book like Princeton Review's guide to best colleges, and narrowed schools based upon my DD's preferences (size, urban vs rural, location, major etc).

That way, a first screen had been made in terms of quality, which we did not automatically equate with selectivity.
Anonymous
Also, when you find one school you like, a book like the Princeton Guide tells you other schools that are "like it" (in terms of where kids tend to cross apply).
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:OP, post your kid's stats (w&uw GPA, public/private/parochial, SAT/ACT, intended major). Let us know what type of school they want (location, size, public/private), and we will make a list for you free of charge. Honestly just search through threads on in the discussion forum. You will get a good idea of where kids are getting in.


Not OP, but this would be very helpful for us! We are totally lost when it comes to targets and safeties.
Looking for academic rigor above all and if possible good music program. Slight preference to East Coast and preferably private/mid-size to smaller but not picky about location, size.
4.0 uw, private, 1580/36, major still not narrowed down (considering biochemistry, physics, or CS)
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, post your kid's stats (w&uw GPA, public/private/parochial, SAT/ACT, intended major). Let us know what type of school they want (location, size, public/private), and we will make a list for you free of charge. Honestly just search through threads on in the discussion forum. You will get a good idea of where kids are getting in.


Not OP, but this would be very helpful for us! We are totally lost when it comes to targets and safeties.
Looking for academic rigor above all and if possible good music program. Slight preference to East Coast and preferably private/mid-size to smaller but not picky about location, size.
4.0 uw, private, 1580/36, major still not narrowed down (considering biochemistry, physics, or CS)


With these stats you are competitive at every school. It’s still a crapshoot at the top 30 unless you have a hook. Safeties would be most schools outside the top 30.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, post your kid's stats (w&uw GPA, public/private/parochial, SAT/ACT, intended major). Let us know what type of school they want (location, size, public/private), and we will make a list for you free of charge. Honestly just search through threads on in the discussion forum. You will get a good idea of where kids are getting in.


Not OP, but this would be very helpful for us! We are totally lost when it comes to targets and safeties.
Looking for academic rigor above all and if possible good music program. Slight preference to East Coast and preferably private/mid-size to smaller but not picky about location, size.
4.0 uw, private, 1580/36, major still not narrowed down (considering biochemistry, physics, or CS)


One way of looking at is by selectivity. For a high stats student, anything less than 25% acceptance rate is a reach. Targets would be more like 25-50% acceptance rate. Safeties accept more students than they deny. (Students with slightly lower stats might have to adjust accordingly.)
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, post your kid's stats (w&uw GPA, public/private/parochial, SAT/ACT, intended major). Let us know what type of school they want (location, size, public/private), and we will make a list for you free of charge. Honestly just search through threads on in the discussion forum. You will get a good idea of where kids are getting in.


Not OP, but this would be very helpful for us! We are totally lost when it comes to targets and safeties.
Looking for academic rigor above all and if possible good music program. Slight preference to East Coast and preferably private/mid-size to smaller but not picky about location, size.
4.0 uw, private, 1580/36, major still not narrowed down (considering biochemistry, physics, or CS)


With these stats you are competitive at every school. It’s still a crapshoot at the top 30 unless you have a hook. Safeties would be most schools outside the top 30.

NP. Safeties would be outside top 60 ish, more like 80s. Examples, in the 40s, schools like BU and Northeastern are nowhere close to safe. Santa Clara (50s) has a reputation for yield protection.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:How do you/ your kid/ counselor come up with a list of safety and target school? I am the OP in the other post asking for a reasonable list for my son. Based on the comments, it seems like most people don’t utilize their schools recent naviance/ Scoir data and mostly rely on CDS.

Just curious what data source do you use to come up with a list of safeties and targets?


basically our school doesn't use Naviance/SCOIR - or at least doesn't make it available for students and parents
if the CDS is more recent, then it is not skewed by admissions pre/post 2021 HS grads/TO/COVID
Anonymous
Do HS use only one - Naviance or Scoir? How does a student get access?

(Our student is rising jr so we are way down on the admissions learning curve.)
Anonymous
When they are IN, it's a safety. Obviously. We concentrated on finding Rolling choices and EA first.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Also I like the calculator at college vine.


College Vine was quite accurate for my 2022 graduate.

+1

How did you determine whether it was accurate? If it said your child had a 25% of admission, is it accurate if he or she was admitted or rejected? Did your child get into every school where chances were >50%?
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Do HS use only one - Naviance or Scoir? How does a student get access?

(Our student is rising jr so we are way down on the admissions learning curve.)

DS got scoir access January of junior year -- I guess about the time it's no longer used by the seniors (expect to hopefully update with their college admit info)
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:OP, post your kid's stats (w&uw GPA, public/private/parochial, SAT/ACT, intended major). Let us know what type of school they want (location, size, public/private), and we will make a list for you free of charge. Honestly just search through threads on in the discussion forum. You will get a good idea of where kids are getting in.


Not OP, but this would be very helpful for us! We are totally lost when it comes to targets and safeties.
Looking for academic rigor above all and if possible good music program. Slight preference to East Coast and preferably private/mid-size to smaller but not picky about location, size.
4.0 uw, private, 1580/36, major still not narrowed down (considering biochemistry, physics, or CS)


Just noting that many schools require applicants to declare CS and that program is harder to get into. Your kid’s stats are great.

I would think Santa Clara would be verging on a safety except for the yield protection. The student should apply EA and take the essays seriously. My DD with lessor scores (1490) was accepted (which I expected) but she was not STEM. They did not give much merit aid at all, which took it out of the running from my perspective.

Here is how I would suggest using ED. For a school that is a top choice where your student is in the top 25% of stats and the acceptance is below 20%. Do not think that your student has a good shot RD, you kid has a good shot ED. Don’t ED a lottery school without a hook. It happens, but it is truly a lottery.
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