How do you determine safety/ targets for your kid?

[Anonymous]

CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

[Anonymous]

You will often hear back from “safeties” before more elite colleges. If you get waitlisted or denied you can add more safeties at that time. There are plenty of colleges that are still accepting kids into the late spring or even summer if it really comes to that. My kid got into Pitt by mid-September so he didn’t apply to any more safeties - or even “matches” at that point. He only applied to reaches he was really excited about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:How do you/ your kid/ counselor come up with a list of safety and target school? I am the OP in the other post asking for a reasonable list for my son. Based on the comments, it seems like most people don’t utilize their schools recent naviance/ Scoir data and mostly rely on CDS.

Just curious what data source do you use to come up with a list of safeties and targets?

Plug in your kid's data into Collegevine. One of the best college admit engines out there. It factors in your kid's profile, how it compares to other applicants and gives you an admit probability based on that profile in addition to the college's overall admit rate. It will spit out your kid's targets, safeties and reaches based on that. We found it to be quite accurate this cycle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Look at schools CDS and "By the Numbers" or similar page to get 50% for GPA & SAT and overall acceptance rates.

A safety would be where your kids stats are near the 75th percentile and the acceptance rate is greater than 80%. Apply to 3 or 4 of these and your kid will get into at least one.

A target would be where your kid is in th50th percentile or greater and the school has an acceptance rate of 45-50% or better. Apply to 3 or 4 of these and your kid will mot likely get into at least one.

If you are not URM or ADLC everything else is a reach these days. If you have a particular skill/talent they need that admission cycle like tuba player in the school band, your chances improve, otherwise a crapshoot.

This is excellent advice.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You will often hear back from “safeties” before more elite colleges. If you get waitlisted or denied you can add more safeties at that time. There are plenty of colleges that are still accepting kids into the late spring or even summer if it really comes to that. My kid got into Pitt by mid-September so he didn’t apply to any more safeties - or even “matches” at that point. He only applied to reaches he was really excited about.

+1 DD's list evolved throughout the Fall as she heard back from schools. If she liked one more than others that she'd still been working on for RD, then she dropped those.

[Anonymous]

Target would have a 30-70% admission rate and your kids GPA and test score in the top 50%. Safety greater than 70% admission rate and your kids GpA and test score in the top 25%. Pick 4 of each that your kid would like to attend as well as 4 reaches and you have a greater than 95% chance of not getting shut out.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Naviance/Scoir was not a good predictor for my high stats DC in 2023. Safeties worked out but target not at all. Many Schools changed things up last year.

What did schools change last year?

UVA changed significantly in ED/EA/RD admissions in Big 3 schools for unhooked high stats OOS. The rejections and WL we know of were vastly out of line with the past.

Tulane suddenly decided (at ED announcement time!) to inform everyone they were cutting back on how many ED acceptances they would give out. It would have been nice if they let kids know this BEFORE they applied ED.

And generally, most T30 schools were harder than in the past for ED/EA for unhooked DC private students we know. It was almost as if they decided to push back on any advantage a full pay student might be trying to get. (I don't have a problem with this in theory, but it would help to know of this shift in advance. And it was yet another change to add to the mix in 23 after changes in 20-22 from COVID, Test Optional, Surge in applicants)

I agree with the PP up thread, who stated that these tools are misleading without knowing hooks - especially at Big 3 with many hooked classmates. I wouldn't go as far as saying they are useless - but any Big 3 unhooked student needs to think carefully about what their targets truly are. Your hooked classmates will get those spots (even if grades/tests/rigor are lower). And, I don't mean HYPSM - this includes schools like Emory, USC, Tufts, U Cal schools, small liberal arts colleges.

Some exceptions:
Chicago ED still seemed in play for strong students.
Tufts ED from GDS looked strong (not at SFS though)
NYU, Georgetown acted somewhat typically based on past Naviance/SCOIR.

Holy shit this sounds similar to this year

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you/ your kid/ counselor come up with a list of safety and target school? I am the OP in the other post asking for a reasonable list for my son. Based on the comments, it seems like most people don’t utilize their schools recent naviance/ Scoir data and mostly rely on CDS.

Just curious what data source do you use to come up with a list of safeties and targets?

Plug in your kid's data into Collegevine. One of the best college admit engines out there. It factors in your kid's profile, how it compares to other applicants and gives you an admit probability based on that profile in addition to the college's overall admit rate. It will spit out your kid's targets, safeties and reaches based on that. We found it to be quite accurate this cycle.

For private high schools too??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

I’d like to know this too

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:CollegeVine has been accurate this year for my DD.

Has your kid gotten into any schools where it indicates they have a 20 to 30% chance of getting in?

I’d like to know this too

Agree. What does it mean to say that CollegeVine was accurate? If chances were 60% and the applicant was admitted, does that mean it was correct? What if chances were 50% and the applicant was not admitted? Was CollegeVine wrong in that case?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:One thing that is helpful about Naviance is it tells you how few students are truly accepted. There are schools that never accept kids from our school. So I am advising my daughter to cross them off her list. For safeties, check out the ones who come to your college fairs. Those are the schools that are actively recruiting. They WANT students from your school to apply. Talk to them, build a relationship. They can put in a good word!

This. Things can be very school specific

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:How do you/ your kid/ counselor come up with a list of safety and target school? I am the OP in the other post asking for a reasonable list for my son. Based on the comments, it seems like most people don’t utilize their schools recent naviance/ Scoir data and mostly rely on CDS.

Just curious what data source do you use to come up with a list of safeties and targets?

Plug in your kid's data into Collegevine. One of the best college admit engines out there. It factors in your kid's profile, how it compares to other applicants and gives you an admit probability based on that profile in addition to the college's overall admit rate. It will spit out your kid's targets, safeties and reaches based on that. We found it to be quite accurate this cycle.

For private high schools too??

[Anonymous]

Collegevine is working great for my kid. Kid had three reaches in 20% range with a reject, WL, and admit. Waiting on 5 more reaches in RD.

Three targets were around a 50% chance and in all 3. In at safety.

In a tough private not big 3. So I think results so far pretty on the money for us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Collegevine is working great for my kid. Kid had three reaches in 20% range with a reject, WL, and admit. Waiting on 5 more reaches in RD.

Three targets were around a 50% chance and in all 3. In at safety.

In a tough private not big 3. So I think results so far pretty on the money for us.

Can you name schools?