Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:92.1% of non-Hispanic Black absentee voters in SC have now returned their ballots.

https://twitter.com/david_darmofal/status/1321256870082916356?s=21

wow!

How many of the registered Black voters turned out though?

92.1 percent. that's what that statistic is about.

92.1% of Black voters that requested an absentee ballot.

Overall return rate, all races, is north of 85%! That is impressive! I don't know if they've been accepted, rejected, or what, though.

Leading counties for requesting mail ballots (as a total of the 2016 vote):
Charleston: 43.3% (I assume that's % of people of registered voters) - 51% C, 43% T - it's the heard of SC-01 which flipped in '18
McCormick: 42.5% (swing rural county on the GA border) - 51% T, 47.5% C
Richland: 41.7% (Columbia) - 64% C, 31% T
Georgetown: 39.5% (along the coast, between Horry/Myrtle Beach & Charleston) - T 55%, C 42%
Sumter: 37.5% (east of Columbia) - 54.5% C, 42.5% T
Beaufort: 36.8% (Hilton Head) - 55% T, 41% C
Clarendon: 36.1% (small rural county between Charleston and Columbia) - 50% C, 48% T
Lancaster: 36.0% (along the NC border near its middle, exburb of Charlotte) - 61% T, 35.5% C
Orangeburg: 36% (about halfway between Charleston and Hilton Head) - 67.5% C, 30.5% T
Horry: 35.9% (Myrtle Beach) - 67% T, 29.5% C

Greenville is the largest county and is a major GOP bastion. Still had 81,856 absentee requests.

A lot depends on whether the Trump cultists can forgive Graham for his occasional apostasies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3636

President Donald Trump is racist, American voters say 51 - 45 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

White voters are divided as 46 percent say he is racist and 50 percent say he is not, the independent Quinnipiac University National Poll finds. Trump is racist black voters say 80 - 11 percent and Hispanic voters say 55 - 44 percent. Men say 55 - 41 percent that Trump is not racist. Women say 59 - 36 percent he is racist.

I’m shocked more men think he’s racist than Hispanics.

Latina here. Not shocked at all. Latinos are much more used to blunt talk about race, at least in our countries of origin. Many of us are very racist ourselves. I definitely think Trump is super racist, but it doesn't surprise me other Latinos do not.

[Anonymous]

538 7 minutes ago

Biden 88

Trump 11

Tie 1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3636

President Donald Trump is racist, American voters say 51 - 45 percent in a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

White voters are divided as 46 percent say he is racist and 50 percent say he is not, the independent Quinnipiac University National Poll finds. Trump is racist black voters say 80 - 11 percent and Hispanic voters say 55 - 44 percent. Men say 55 - 41 percent that Trump is not racist. Women say 59 - 36 percent he is racist.

I’m shocked more men think he’s racist than Hispanics.

Latina here. Not shocked at all. Latinos are much more used to blunt talk about race, at least in our countries of origin. Many of us are very racist ourselves. I definitely think Trump is super racist, but it doesn't surprise me other Latinos do not.

+1. Racism rages in Arab countries too. Its everywhere.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:538 7 minutes ago

Biden 88

Trump 11

Tie 1

🔥🔥🔥
The roof! The roof! The roof is on fire!
We don’t need no water let the m*thaf**ka burn!
Burn baby, burn!

VOTE!

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Some context.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Wow indeed.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For everyone who says the polls were soo00 wrong in 2016:


So, this is a poll from this time in the election in Michigan, after Comey blindsided Clinton.


https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/

Clinton's lead had dropped to 4 points, with 12 percent undercided. It was within the margin of error, and Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes.


Here's a poll from today.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/27/group-voters-powering-joe-biden-lead-over-trump-michigan/6050358002/

with Biden up 8 points, with 7 points undecided.

Male Trump supporters but think women are might stupid. I'm seeing future divorces in this polling.

I can’t see the poll because it’s behind a paywall. I think you have to feel pretty good about any state where Biden is over 50%. Plus there’s far fewer undecideds. Last time the “haters vote” (undecideds who didn’t like either Clinton or Trump) broke for Trump, and this time there are fewer of them and they’re breaking for Biden.

I don’t know. I’m cautiously optimistic. Maybe that’s foolish of me. I think Biden will come away with a pretty convincing EC victory and it’s not going to hinge on just one close state a la Bush/Gore in Florida.

Democrat Joe Biden's lead in Michigan is persisting with a week until the Nov. 3 election and heavy support from female voters in the state, according to the latest Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll released Tuesday.

Overall, Biden is ahead 49.3% to 41.6% over President Donald Trump in the survey of 600 likely voters conducted by the Lansing-based Glengariff Group during the three days following Thursday's final debate in Nashville. It is about an 8 percentage point lead.
The Oct. 23-25 poll, which had a margin of error of 4 percentage points, found the former vice president to have a striking 24.5-point lead among female voters.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For everyone who says the polls were soo00 wrong in 2016:


So, this is a poll from this time in the election in Michigan, after Comey blindsided Clinton.


https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/free-press-poll-donald-trump-gains-hillary-clinton-race-michigan-tightens/93287658/

Clinton's lead had dropped to 4 points, with 12 percent undercided. It was within the margin of error, and Trump won Michigan by about 10,000 votes.


Here's a poll from today.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/10/27/group-voters-powering-joe-biden-lead-over-trump-michigan/6050358002/

with Biden up 8 points, with 7 points undecided.

Male Trump supporters but think women are might stupid. I'm seeing future divorces in this polling.

I can’t see the poll because it’s behind a paywall. I think you have to feel pretty good about any state where Biden is over 50%. Plus there’s far fewer undecideds. Last time the “haters vote” (undecideds who didn’t like either Clinton or Trump) broke for Trump, and this time there are fewer of them and they’re breaking for Biden.

I don’t know. I’m cautiously optimistic. Maybe that’s foolish of me. I think Biden will come away with a pretty convincing EC victory and it’s not going to hinge on just one close state a la Bush/Gore in Florida.

Democrat Joe Biden's lead in Michigan is persisting with a week until the Nov. 3 election and heavy support from female voters in the state, according to the latest Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll released Tuesday.

Overall, Biden is ahead 49.3% to 41.6% over President Donald Trump in the survey of 600 likely voters conducted by the Lansing-based Glengariff Group during the three days following Thursday's final debate in Nashville. It is about an 8 percentage point lead.
The Oct. 23-25 poll, which had a margin of error of 4 percentage points, found the former vice president to have a striking 24.5-point lead among female voters.

Male Trump supporters but think women are might stupid. I see future divorces in this polling.

[Anonymous]

^^must think women are stupid^^

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:538 7 minutes ago

Biden 88

Trump 11

Tie 1

Is there a way to see their numbers for HRC at this point in 2016?

[Anonymous]

its basically over, nobodyy changing at this point

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:its basically over, nobodyy changing at this point

Fat lady ain't singing yet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:538 7 minutes ago

Biden 88

Trump 11

Tie 1

Is there a way to see their numbers for HRC at this point in 2016?

I have this bookmarked and refer to it frequently: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Also real clear politics shows Biden's position in battleground states relative to HRCs. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/, he was lagging until this week but now is better positioned than she was (though not in all states: About halfway down this page you can see where she was polling at this time in 2016 in key states: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html.)