Who do you think is going to win and why?

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:



We know that Bush only went to Harvard and Yale because of Daddy's money. Harvard and Yale are vastly overrated. College does not make a person. A person who works hard and thinks will achieve no matter what college they went to. This is a show we have seen before. Americans know this. Americans aspire to what Harris is bringing . . . and that is opportunity to excel through perseverance and hard work. Harris can speak well enough and more importantly she has policies and will appoint smart people to also speak and implement them. Hopefully Buttigieg remains one of them. That guy should be running for president . . . hopefully will in the future.


The funny part is that Harris is not really a hard worker or known for being smart.

She failed the bar twice.


I know someone who failed the bar four times and that person is still smarter than Trump.


We had 4 good years of Trump, he has real world experience, he is charismatic, and he is a loose cannon in a way that benefits America. I don’t like him but will vote for him.


Same. I don’t care at all about how terrible his personality is or his character. How the Biden/Harris stuff went down and then the extremely biased media portrayal of Trump vs Harris don’t sit well with me either. All things considered, I think he will do the job of President, is a stronger leader, and I prefer his economic and immigration policies over hers. I don’t love him and I’m not MAGA. I vote for democrats too in elections. I suspect there are many, many like me. We won’t put up yard signs or talk about it with our many liberal friends, but we’ll cast a vote for him on election day. It’s just 4 years. I hope the democrats party moves closer to center for the next election cycle, same with republicans too.
Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I read and no cannot currently link that internal leaked GOP polls are quite bad for Trump, and separately read that a lot of conveniently blue-checked yet very low-follower X accounts with trash polls favoring Trump are his only current campaign strategy.

I am very confident Harris/Walz will win, there’s a well-coordinated GOTV campaign, the early voting is largely from Democratic strongholds, the campaign is extremely well-funded, broadly supported, and well-run. I think the trolling here has some folks spun up but there is no utility in worrying. I don’t think Trump has it in him to take this, and I don’t think post Georgia voting decision, that there’s a good-enough campaign to do more than feebly try to push against legitimate election results by the GOP. Police aren’t going to repeat January 6; they aren’t going to get hit and maimed and killed for a lunatic fringe to shit-fit over a Harris win.

European reporting which of course does not go fringe-poll-rabbit-hole largely supports a Harris landslide FWIW.


You read internal, leaked, GOP polls? Where? You didn’t screenshot them? Why can’t you link to them?


I’m a DP but it’s not hard to search Google for this info.

The poll data comes from the Senate Leadership Fund.

GOP is performing badly.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/13/senate-republican-poll-memo-00183570

This is about senate races not the presidential race. And what it says that the candidate in OH is running behind Trump and the candidate in PA is doing better than Trump. So a wash overall.
Anonymous
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Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think Harris is going to win. I keep seeing stories about the shocking lead Trump has and how early voting is going for him. But this in is conservative media and it will bolster the pending lawsuits for Trump on the days after election. I think there is a big push in the conservative media to support his claims of a stolen election. America is over Trump but Trump didn’t get the message. Buckle in! It’s going to be a wild ride!


CNN is conservative media?: https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/23/politics/early-voting-trends-2024-2020-visuals-dg/index.html

Holy cow, the charts in that article are undeniably bad for Harris. Every datapoint favors Trump.

- EV lower overall than 2020
- % R EV up, D down
- % White up
- % Older up

Yikes


You would expect EV to be lower than 2020, which you may recall was the thick of the pandemic before vaccines. Virtually every state shifted heavily to vote by mail. The baseline is all warped now; Rs have (belatedly) started encouraging their voters to vote by mail, and Ds are WAY more likely to vote in person in 2024 than they were in 2020.

That’s not to say I think Harris will definitely win. But the EV numbers alone aren’t useful as a metric here without that context.

Okay, you can make a case for overall EV being lower. However that does not apply to the demographic profile of the EV. The demographics of the people who have cast EV has undeniably favored demographic groups expected to be Trump supporters.


DP, but I don't think there's any reason to expect EV numbers to have much predictive value. Early votes don't count more and people who vote early were probably always going to vote. I'd give Trump to nod to win, but I don't think the EV numbers are meaningful.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:I think Harris is going to win in a squeaker and ironically, what gets her over the top is winning NC due to a downward drag on Republican/Trump votes due to that Black Republican nutjob running for Governor.

I also predict that Harris will be the most unpopular President ever and despite being elected President and being the most powerful person in the world, we will be told over and over that her unpopularity is due to racism and sexism. Because that’s a pattern for her.


She does but deserve to be anywhere near the presidency.

Cannot believe the whole country is falling for her schtick.

They messed up San Francisco now they are coming for the rest of the country.


Harris is better than Trump by a lot.


NO - she is better at the things Trump is horrible at. She is not better at everything. She is not better at key things. She is not better at specific things he isn't bad at.

People see what they want to see and almost always miss the details which is essentially the most important of all.

He is a monster because he can't reign in his self indulgence and emotions. He is quite ostentatiously selfish and arrogant enough to show too much. His weakness is that he is a spoiled buffoon who is dumber than rocks intellectually.

What Trump isn't is dumb in marketing and sales. He's 10000% better at that esp v Kamala. Even as a fierce Dem who is liberal and v almost everything he is for on the political platform, I sincerely think as a person, he's actually not a monster. Certain things he's said lead me to feel he knows the difference between right and wrong. He chooses to play politics but ultimately he's OK. He isn't Hitler no matter how often he talks about him. I also believe that in certain ways he is a better leader than her in that he's too foolish to ever back down even when is wiser to play the game.

He got elected once and he beat Hilary, arguably the most easily voted in nominee when it should have been her time. No matter how he did it, he did it. And whether it was valid or not, he got there and stayed there so on some level he outplayed her and that's not stupidity that did that. You can say whatever you want about him being a buffoon and he is but I'm just saying, it's about looking at the details.

While I know better than to vote for him, I get why some would and I also think that Kamala is going to be bad for this country in different ways. It's just a matter if the details but they are both the same kind of bad candidate in that neither is quality.

I really really wish people would 1. Stop comparing Kamala to Trump. Kamala needs to be judged on her own merits, not how she compares to someone else. 2. Stop talking about how she'll be a great POTUS! Nobody but nobody can know as she's never been. You can say you think she'll do well because of __ based on ___ but there's no way you know how she'll be. You may like her more than Trump so you vote for her but not because she's gonna be awesome. There's no way to know that!
Anonymous
I think Trump wins.

Harris has done nothing to earn her status as a candidate and has repeatedly blown opportunities to define herself on issues that matter the most in voters’ minds like the economy. Her recent foray into attacking Trump as a “fascist” only shows the level of desperation inside her campaign.

However, if Harris loses, most of the blame should go to Biden, whose ego and selfishness unnecessarily caused this 11th hour scramble.

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
We have no choice. It's her or Trump and Trump is a disaster so we have to give her a chance.

Personally I don't want to be hearing about the president every day and with Trump I will be. He has to be front and center all the time. I think she will delegate more and get more done.


I think she's great and also exactly, exactly this. I want the government to be boring and plod away in the background taking care of all the things I don't want to have to be paying attention to. I cannot take being hyper-alert and vigilant like this all the time, ALL THE TIME, for another four years.

Harris will do a good job. She will be a normie Dem. She will do some things I don't like, she'll make some mistakes, and she and her government will plod along trying to make things safe and good, and even better, for the American people. And I Can mostly not pay attention.

Trump is going to smear himself in a sh** swastika eight times a day while lighting people on fire and grabbing women while shouting about people's di**s, and occasionally putting on the Special Seniors Soundtrack to have a little dance party to. And every day we'll have to worry that he's dismantling the institutions that let this country hum along - that keep it the safest country with the best economy in all the world. He's going to destroy everything and put on quite a noxious and obnoxious show while he does it. I don't WANT that. I DO NOT WANT THAT.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Washington Post has a map to see where donations are coming from. It gives me hope for a Harris win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/


Since evidently overseas media are reporting as if it’s going to be a Harris landslide, it will be interesting to see how well that map translates to the results.
I liked looking around the map. Trump has so few donors - even if the few at the top are huge. Harris’s is so widespread. That has to mean something.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Harris. Trump already lost in 2020. He is not more popular.
Im a democrat so I’m not biased here but CNN just said Trump is more popular than ever


Yeah. I’m sure all the people who realized they’d been played on Jan 6 are gearing up to vote for him.

And all the Republicans speaking out against him too.

So popular. Wow!



I am in VA and I convinced my wife and son to vote for the good of the country and for the best interest of the common people and they both voted for Trump yesterday.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Washington Post has a map to see where donations are coming from. It gives me hope for a Harris win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/


Since evidently overseas media are reporting as if it’s going to be a Harris landslide, it will be interesting to see how well that map translates to the results.
I liked looking around the map. Trump has so few donors - even if the few at the top are huge. Harris’s is so widespread. That has to mean something.

Trump pulled off 2016 on a shoestring operation though.
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Harris. Trump already lost in 2020. He is not more popular.
Im a democrat so I’m not biased here but CNN just said Trump is more popular than ever


Yeah. I’m sure all the people who realized they’d been played on Jan 6 are gearing up to vote for him.

And all the Republicans speaking out against him too.

So popular. Wow!



I am in VA and I convinced my wife and son to vote for the good of the country and for the best interest of the common people and they both voted for Trump yesterday.


I'm sure that's what they told you.

Anonymous
Harris. Because she’s not repeating mistakes made by Hillary. Plus, people are truly tired of Trump. He’s same old tired woe is me and only I can fix it tropes. Anyone with half a brain can see that.
Anonymous
2016 was different. This is a mass volume of donations supporting Harris. It's never just about the money to your point. It's about the sentiments. A lot of people supporting Harris don't actually like her they just hate Trump more. Hillary lost because they didn't like her. In politics as in sales - the person most liked wins. It's not intellectual, it's not about smarts or policies or practical matters. It is and always will be about emotions. People are wired to be emotional. You root for the underdog not who is good or even deserving of victory because they put the time in or because they are better and should win. You root for the team you THiNK should win. This is psychology 101.

Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Harris. Trump already lost in 2020. He is not more popular.
Im a democrat so I’m not biased here but CNN just said Trump is more popular than ever


Yeah. I’m sure all the people who realized they’d been played on Jan 6 are gearing up to vote for him.

And all the Republicans speaking out against him too.

So popular. Wow!



I am in VA and I convinced my wife and son to vote for the good of the country and for the best interest of the common people and they both voted for Trump yesterday.


So your wife voted against woman having access to healthcare and control of their bodies in the best interest of the common people??
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Washington Post has a map to see where donations are coming from. It gives me hope for a Harris win.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/


Since evidently overseas media are reporting as if it’s going to be a Harris landslide, it will be interesting to see how well that map translates to the results.
I liked looking around the map. Trump has so few donors - even if the few at the top are huge. Harris’s is so widespread. That has to mean something.

Trump pulled off 2016 on a shoestring operation though.
it’s not about the money. It’s about the number of people interested enough to donate. Trump does not have the same excitement.
Anonymous
The only thing Harris has in favor is that she isn’t Trump. But I don’t think that is enough to win the election. A lot of people like Trump for being Trump. No one really likes Kamala. She wouldn’t have even received the nomination in a traditional primary.

But who knows. It will be close.
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