Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.

There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.

I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.

If a state is within 50,000 votes then yes it will get the Florida 2000 treatment.

Now if Biden gets 270+ EVs of clear wins it is up to Republicans at various levels to provide a Goldwater 1974 moment. Otherwise they risk creating a Jamaica 1980 moment.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

We shall see. I’m going in believing Biden will win Texas. I don’t think they’re polling first time and unlikely voters in an election with significantly higher turnout than usual.

[Anonymous]

We shall see. I’m going in believing Biden will win Texas. I don’t think they’re polling first time and unlikely voters in an election with significantly higher turnout than usual.

I like your optimism. 10% undecided is big. And the lead is about the margin of error.

In any case, this is a nightmare for the GOP. That Trump is under 50% in TX spells their doom.

[Anonymous]

Wisconsin

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/10/26/uw-poll-biden-extends-lead-great-lakes-battleground-states/6037997002/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.

There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.

I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.

If a state is within 50,000 votes then yes it will get the Florida 2000 treatment.

Now if Biden gets 270+ EVs of clear wins it is up to Republicans at various levels to provide a Goldwater 1974 moment. Otherwise they risk creating a Jamaica 1980 moment.

This made me smile but simultaneously realize I don’t even truly know what a Goldwater 1974 moment OR a Jamaica 1980 moment even means.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

We shall see. I’m going in believing Biden will win Texas. I don’t think they’re polling first time and unlikely voters in an election with significantly higher turnout than usual.

I like your optimism. 10% undecided is big. And the lead is about the margin of error.

In any case, this is a nightmare for the GOP. That Trump is under 50% in TX spells their doom.

There are some pretty significant caveats in this poll, a lot of it having to do with Latino voters in the state being difficult to poll. According to this, Trump is doing 14 points better with them, than Hillary did in 2016. They also got House races pretty consistently wrong the last time around (towards R), so as with the PP, I'm going to hold on to the hope that Biden will win Texas in a close one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.

There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.

I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.

If a state is within 50,000 votes then yes it will get the Florida 2000 treatment.

Now if Biden gets 270+ EVs of clear wins it is up to Republicans at various levels to provide a Goldwater 1974 moment. Otherwise they risk creating a Jamaica 1980 moment.

This made me smile but simultaneously realize I don’t even truly know what a Goldwater 1974 moment OR a Jamaica 1980 moment even means.

I didn't either. Had to google.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

We shall see. I’m going in believing Biden will win Texas. I don’t think they’re polling first time and unlikely voters in an election with significantly higher turnout than usual.

I like your optimism. 10% undecided is big. And the lead is about the margin of error.

In any case, this is a nightmare for the GOP. That Trump is under 50% in TX spells their doom.

There are some pretty significant caveats in this poll, a lot of it having to do with Latino voters in the state being difficult to poll. According to this, Trump is doing 14 points better with them, than Hillary did in 2016. They also got House races pretty consistently wrong the last time around (towards R), so as with the PP, I'm going to hold on to the hope that Biden will win Texas in a close one.

Some of the crosstabs are cuckoo for cocoa puffs. Like Trump +2 in Houston.

Oh, and 10% is not undecided, it includes 'other'. Apparently Biden is up 2:1 among the undecideds (5%).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

We shall see. I’m going in believing Biden will win Texas. I don’t think they’re polling first time and unlikely voters in an election with significantly higher turnout than usual.

I like your optimism. 10% undecided is big. And the lead is about the margin of error.

In any case, this is a nightmare for the GOP. That Trump is under 50% in TX spells their doom.

There are some pretty significant caveats in this poll, a lot of it having to do with Latino voters in the state being difficult to poll. According to this, Trump is doing 14 points better with them, than Hillary did in 2016. They also got House races pretty consistently wrong the last time around (towards R), so as with the PP, I'm going to hold on to the hope that Biden will win Texas in a close one.

+1 and here are the specifics on what NYT/Siena got wrong and by how much in 2018.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.

There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.

I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.

If a state is within 50,000 votes then yes it will get the Florida 2000 treatment.

Now if Biden gets 270+ EVs of clear wins it is up to Republicans at various levels to provide a Goldwater 1974 moment. Otherwise they risk creating a Jamaica 1980 moment.

This made me smile but simultaneously realize I don’t even truly know what a Goldwater 1974 moment OR a Jamaica 1980 moment even means.

I didn't either. Had to google.

Me neither and when I google the 1980 Jamaica vote this stands out:

Total Votes Cast 860,746

Registered Voters 990,417

Voter Turnout 86.91%

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Pennsylvania

early voting by party affiliation:
Democrats - 1,193,887
Republicans - 355,317
Independents - 152,057

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory.

There might be a few states that are close. States that won't be close: MI, PA, WI.

I would submit that the EC numbers on election night or by the end of the day on 11/4 will be such that there won't be any need for SCOTUS challenges.

If a state is within 50,000 votes then yes it will get the Florida 2000 treatment.

Now if Biden gets 270+ EVs of clear wins it is up to Republicans at various levels to provide a Goldwater 1974 moment. Otherwise they risk creating a Jamaica 1980 moment.

This made me smile but simultaneously realize I don’t even truly know what a Goldwater 1974 moment OR a Jamaica 1980 moment even means.

It was 1964, but Goldwater lost to LBJ in a landslide.