Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread
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Anonymous
I doubt he wins. If he wins, it will be close. If its close, there will be litigation and the Supreme Court will ultimately side with the republicans. I am sorry, I want Biden but we are far from a victory. |
Anonymous
I wouldn't count on Gorsuch and Roberts siding with them just because. The other 4 are hopeless though, obviously. |
Anonymous
Roberts is notoriously bad on voting rights, so I would... |
Anonymous
If Trump has to contest Texas of all places, then it isn't going to be close in a lot of other states, where Biden has a clear lead. I doubt even this supreme court will award him electors from multiple states to enable him to win. If Texas goes blue, the nation owes Beto. He's pretty much single handedly bringing this into the purple column. |
Anonymous
1) the polls weren't off. The exit polls matched the pre-election polls. Trump struck an inside straight flush by narrowly winning three states with a growd that filles a football stadium Whether that was luck or manipulation, we may never know. 2) Hillary was the second worst candidate in the history of the country, but she was beaten (barely) by the worst. Biden doesn't have anywhere close to the negative ratings that Hillary had. 3) The polls have been steady. Trump has been down 7% to "generic dem" since 2017. Trump won by 80,000 votes in the EC but has done thing to add to his base of voters since then. In the meanwhile, it is 4 years of older people naturally dying off, 4 years of younger people who hate Trump, coming of voting age, and suburban women and independents flocking away from Trump in droves. He might still win but by the numbers, it is hard to understand how. |
Anonymous
Fair point. https://www.vox.com/21211880/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-voting-rights-act-election-2020 
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Anonymous
Beto deserves a lot of credit. But singlehandedly? There are hundreds if not thousands of people working their butts off in TX. |
Anonymous
In WI and other states, the Clinton vote was correct but Trump was low because undecideds broke for him. Fewer undecideds this time and less likely they will all go for Trump. |
Anonymous
Were votes changed? We don't have evidence of that. We have plenty of PROOF that it CAN be done without a trace. What we do know is that the Trump campaign gave data to Russia and Russians put disinformation on Facebook. I'd call that manipulation. And now the illegitimate, impeached, soon to be indicted POTUS has completely reshaped the Federal Courts for decades. |
Anonymous
| Why are Texas and Georgia so close this time? Even Obama didn’t inspire such numbers. Are the polls simply off? |
Anonymous
I doubt the Supreme Court will reverse votes. There is no precedent for what you’re describing. What exactly are you suggesting they will do? Bush V Gore - Bush won and the Supreme Court stopped the recount. What you’re saying is that Texas announces Biden wins then the Supreme Court reverses that? My understanding is that most of the Texas early vote is in person. |
Anonymous
But he voted with the liberals on the PA case. I don't know. I think he's as much an institutionalist as he is anti-voting rights, and so his votes will largely depend on if he's able to save the court's reputation with his vote - if it's 4-4 and he's the decider - or if it's 5-3 without him, and he might as well go with the conservatives. |
Anonymous
I’m not expert, but changing demographics. Obama was 8-12 years ago at this point. Plus a solid amount of republican trump defectors, and a growing national trend towards more independents. Just my guess. |
Anonymous
He is, but I think you have to distinguish between voting rights cases that are about policy before an election where the impact is hypothetical and voting rights cases after an election where the impact would be determinative. Roberts is above all concerned with preserving the Constitutional system and the integrity of the Court. He won't want the Court to appear like it has its thumb on the scale for Trump, because that would damage both. That's why a decisive majority even in the national vote totals is important. Historically, the Court has never veered too far from public opinion. |