2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I woke up today with a terrible thought: What if Manchin and Sinema switch parties.

They won't, will they? If they did that and Warnock wins reelection then they would def be worse off than they are now. But if Walker wins, and both of them switched, it would make the difference. It would have to be both, though.

I guess there's some part of me worried that the constant hectoring at them is going to make them susceptible to whatever McTurtle can offer.

Talk me down, will you?

Manchin will not switch. He wins reelection by getting the Democratic votes and some of the moderate Republican vote. If he switches parties, that will be his last term in office. He cannot win a Republican primary in WV. He will be primaried from the right and lose. However, if he stays as a Democrat, he is essentially assured of reelection.

Sinema is in office until 2026 and based on her flipflopping, and the fact that she has changed many of her positions in office from when
she campaigned, she may be an underdog in the 2026 primaries. Her position in-state is precarious for her reelection, but she's safe for the next 4 years.

Am I doing my math wrong? Isn't Sinema up for reelection in 2024? She was elected in 2018... right?

Yes, she’s up in 2024. It’s been pretty clear to me for a while that Ruben Gallego is planning to primary her.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Trump now supporting Rick Scott, the guy who failed to win the Senate, for Minority Leader over McConnell.

McConnell is not on speaking terms with Trump. Rick Scott has his lips surgically attached to Trump’s posterior. This isn’t rocket science.

Oh I know but it’s not like there aren’t a bunch of other Senators with similarly affixed lips. Maybe pick one who didn’t just fall on his face?

REPUBLICANS IN DISARRAY!!!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I woke up today with a terrible thought: What if Manchin and Sinema switch parties.

They won't, will they? If they did that and Warnock wins reelection then they would def be worse off than they are now. But if Walker wins, and both of them switched, it would make the difference. It would have to be both, though.

I guess there's some part of me worried that the constant hectoring at them is going to make them susceptible to whatever McTurtle can offer.

Talk me down, will you?

Manchin will not switch. He wins reelection by getting the Democratic votes and some of the moderate Republican vote. If he switches parties, that will be his last term in office. He cannot win a Republican primary in WV. He will be primaried from the right and lose. However, if he stays as a Democrat, he is essentially assured of reelection.

Sinema is in office until 2026 and based on her flipflopping, and the fact that she has changed many of her positions in office from when
she campaigned, she may be an underdog in the 2026 primaries. Her position in-state is precarious for her reelection, but she's safe for the next 4 years.

Am I doing my math wrong? Isn't Sinema up for reelection in 2024? She was elected in 2018... right?

Sorry, my error. I got confused with the Arizona elections. Sinema was elected in 2018 and Kelly was elected in 2020 (and likely again this year).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I woke up today with a terrible thought: What if Manchin and Sinema switch parties.

They won't, will they? If they did that and Warnock wins reelection then they would def be worse off than they are now. But if Walker wins, and both of them switched, it would make the difference. It would have to be both, though.

I guess there's some part of me worried that the constant hectoring at them is going to make them susceptible to whatever McTurtle can offer.

Talk me down, will you?

Manchin will not switch. He wins reelection by getting the Democratic votes and some of the moderate Republican vote. If he switches parties, that will be his last term in office. He cannot win a Republican primary in WV. He will be primaried from the right and lose. However, if he stays as a Democrat, he is essentially assured of reelection.

Sinema is in office until 2026 and based on her flipflopping, and the fact that she has changed many of her positions in office from when
she campaigned, she may be an underdog in the 2026 primaries. Her position in-state is precarious for her reelection, but she's safe for the next 4 years.

Am I doing my math wrong? Isn't Sinema up for reelection in 2024? She was elected in 2018... right?

Sorry, my error. I got confused with the Arizona elections. Sinema was elected in 2018 and Kelly was elected in 2020 (and likely again this year).

No worries. It is totally weird because Arizona has had a Senate election every two years for like a decade.

[Anonymous]

😎

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:😎

Guess what? At least those young judges will be qualified

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:😎

Guess what? At least those young judges will be qualified

Oh they will, because they will have a lot more lines on their resume than a Federalist Society membership and a 5th or 11th Circuit clerkship. Can’t wait.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:😎

I love it.

[Anonymous]

I hope the Dems move aggressively with the judicial appointments now.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

This is awesome. Full video is better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I woke up today with a terrible thought: What if Manchin and Sinema switch parties.

They won't, will they? If they did that and Warnock wins reelection then they would def be worse off than they are now. But if Walker wins, and both of them switched, it would make the difference. It would have to be both, though.

I guess there's some part of me worried that the constant hectoring at them is going to make them susceptible to whatever McTurtle can offer.

Talk me down, will you?

Manchin will not switch. He wins reelection by getting the Democratic votes and some of the moderate Republican vote. If he switches parties, that will be his last term in office. He cannot win a Republican primary in WV. He will be primaried from the right and lose. However, if he stays as a Democrat, he is essentially assured of reelection.

Sinema is in office until 2026 and based on her flipflopping, and the fact that she has changed many of her positions in office from when
she campaigned, she may be an underdog in the 2026 primaries. Her position in-state is precarious for her reelection, but she's safe for the next 4 years.

Am I doing my math wrong? Isn't Sinema up for reelection in 2024? She was elected in 2018... right?

Yes, she’s up in 2024. It’s been pretty clear to me for a while that Ruben Gallego is planning to primary her.

Underscoring my previous point

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I woke up today with a terrible thought: What if Manchin and Sinema switch parties.

They won't, will they? If they did that and Warnock wins reelection then they would def be worse off than they are now. But if Walker wins, and both of them switched, it would make the difference. It would have to be both, though.

I guess there's some part of me worried that the constant hectoring at them is going to make them susceptible to whatever McTurtle can offer.

Talk me down, will you?

Manchin will not switch. He wins reelection by getting the Democratic votes and some of the moderate Republican vote. If he switches parties, that will be his last term in office. He cannot win a Republican primary in WV. He will be primaried from the right and lose. However, if he stays as a Democrat, he is essentially assured of reelection.

Sinema is in office until 2026 and based on her flipflopping, and the fact that she has changed many of her positions in office from when
she campaigned, she may be an underdog in the 2026 primaries. Her position in-state is precarious for her reelection, but she's safe for the next 4 years.

Am I doing my math wrong? Isn't Sinema up for reelection in 2024? She was elected in 2018... right?

Yes, she’s up in 2024. It’s been pretty clear to me for a while that Ruben Gallego is planning to primary her.

Underscoring my previous point

She is done for. Manchin's behavior made a lot of sense given WV politics- he has to play the conservative Democrat fighting the progressives when they go too far to capture a big slice of the republican vote there, and no one is going to primary him. Sinema's was completely irrational in a 50/50 state.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I hope the Dems move aggressively with the judicial appointments now.

Warp speed. 100%.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I woke up today with a terrible thought: What if Manchin and Sinema switch parties.

They won't, will they? If they did that and Warnock wins reelection then they would def be worse off than they are now. But if Walker wins, and both of them switched, it would make the difference. It would have to be both, though.

I guess there's some part of me worried that the constant hectoring at them is going to make them susceptible to whatever McTurtle can offer.

Talk me down, will you?

Manchin will not switch. He wins reelection by getting the Democratic votes and some of the moderate Republican vote. If he switches parties, that will be his last term in office. He cannot win a Republican primary in WV. He will be primaried from the right and lose. However, if he stays as a Democrat, he is essentially assured of reelection.

Sinema is in office until 2026 and based on her flipflopping, and the fact that she has changed many of her positions in office from when
she campaigned, she may be an underdog in the 2026 primaries. Her position in-state is precarious for her reelection, but she's safe for the next 4 years.

Am I doing my math wrong? Isn't Sinema up for reelection in 2024? She was elected in 2018... right?

Yes, she’s up in 2024. It’s been pretty clear to me for a while that Ruben Gallego is planning to primary her.

Underscoring my previous point

She is done for. Manchin's behavior made a lot of sense given WV politics- he has to play the conservative Democrat fighting the progressives when they go too far to capture a big slice of the republican vote there, and no one is going to primary him. Sinema's was completely irrational in a 50/50 state.

+1 And 2020-2022 proved that a Democrat doesn’t have to be a weird conservadem to win in Arizona. Bye!