Girls DA/ECNL in VA: who will survive?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let's be serious. The top teams in DA and ECNL are probably the best teams around but the bottom half could easily get outplayed by the top EDP/NPL teams. The U14 MRM Rush team that just moved to Bethesda, and Pipeline, routinely beat ECNL teams in the same age group.

DD plays on one of the better ECNL teams in the area and this is probably right. Dilution is real.

Yes. And the people complaining about dilution are the same people that don't want to drive further than 10 minutes to training. Ergo the need for a ton of "elite" clubs. Cant have your cake and eat it too.

Because there is no reason to drive by 4-5 clubs to play in the same showcases and in front of the same college coaches.

Dilution is a reason.

The number of "elite" clubs in the area should be cut in half for them to be truly "elite".

No real reason to do that either. These are not "elite" leagues, they are showcase leagues. Understand that and the importance of wins and losses declines.

Wow. Brilliant. I don't remember saying anything about elite be determined by wins and losses.

So coaches have unlimited time and money to visit every club in every geographic area to find all the players? There is no advantage to a consolidation of talent for those coaches? And what about the top players? Is there no benefit to playing and training with a roster full of top players?

I am trying to ask these questions with as little snark as possible but the content of your post makes that difficult.

Both ECNL and DA showcases draw the same college coaches. ECNL showcases may draw more regionally among the smaller D1 and on programs but that is because there are simply more ECNL events than DA and many of the ECNL events are regional. Most players go to college within a half day drive anyways so this is more than sufficient.

DA showcases have fewer events but draw more coaches.

In either event coaches have limited time so they are there to look at players who have either reached out to them or their club coaches may have done so. But a college coach is still going to prioritize a player who is interested in their school over window shopping for a player who will become a bidding war. Top ten soccer programs are targeting YNT and YNTC players off the bar as well as statistical leaders and can afford to get into bidding wars.

If your DD is not one of the top 100 players in her age group then the player has to do the heavy lifting anyways. Frankly, a good player on a bad team playing against quality competition can stand out more to a coach than a good player on a great team. Think of it like trying to stand out at TJ if you are just average there. You are obviously still really smart but at that level you are average. The 3.7 at TJ may not pop the same as a 4.2 in run of the mill HS AP classes.

So for players to pop in front of non top ten, top twenty soccer coaches you need to show separation from your team and other players in the field. That doesn’t happen as easily if you are not the best player on your team.

It is nice that a club like FCV gets 40-70 coaches on their sideline but half of those coaches are really there to watch 2-3 players and the other half are there to watch up to 20 kids on two teams.

It is really about where your kid can both develop and be put in the best possible showcasing situation. And not to be forgotten is where is it the most fun to be. But a kid needs to be a top five player on their team in order to feel and play the part of a leading core player. Supporting role players, no matter how talented are just not alpha enough to pop.

Your top 5 player argument is false and it is getting old.

There are 333 D1 womens soccer programs (though not all fully funded). https://www.ncsasports.org/womens-soccer/division-1-colleges

The average roster size is 29.

The average recruiting class is 7.

333 D1 schools * 7 recruits per class = 2331

There are 52 ECNL clubs with a U18 team (from what I could find...this may be less)

There are 72 DA teams with a U18/19 team.

The average roster size is 18.

52+72=124 total teams

124*18=2232 total players

There are more openings for D1 schools than there are DA + ECNL players EVERY year.

This doesn't include D2 & D3 which are large in numbers. Only D1 & D2 offer athletic scholarships though.

If your DD doesn't completely suck, they can play in college at some level AND play D1 even if they come off the bench.

Play with the numbers all you want, the top 5 off of each team would only provide a player pool of 620 players to D1 teams.

You’re right. The argument is wrong and getting the old.

You can show this guy all the data you can find that shows he is wrong but his answer will continue to be that things are changing because (fill in the blank). His go-to is that Loudoun now has ECNL and that Loudoun ECNL is one of the biggest game-changers for the area in a decade.

Waste of time trying to use actual data and facts when he just keeps repeating the same crap over and over.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Let's be serious. The top teams in DA and ECNL are probably the best teams around but the bottom half could easily get outplayed by the top EDP/NPL teams. The U14 MRM Rush team that just moved to Bethesda, and Pipeline, routinely beat ECNL teams in the same age group.

DD plays on one of the better ECNL teams in the area and this is probably right. Dilution is real.

Yes. And the people complaining about dilution are the same people that don't want to drive further than 10 minutes to training. Ergo the need for a ton of "elite" clubs. Cant have your cake and eat it too.

Because there is no reason to drive by 4-5 clubs to play in the same showcases and in front of the same college coaches.

Dilution is a reason.

The number of "elite" clubs in the area should be cut in half for them to be truly "elite".

No real reason to do that either. These are not "elite" leagues, they are showcase leagues. Understand that and the importance of wins and losses declines.

Wow. Brilliant. I don't remember saying anything about elite be determined by wins and losses.

So coaches have unlimited time and money to visit every club in every geographic area to find all the players? There is no advantage to a consolidation of talent for those coaches? And what about the top players? Is there no benefit to playing and training with a roster full of top players?

I am trying to ask these questions with as little snark as possible but the content of your post makes that difficult.

Both ECNL and DA showcases draw the same college coaches. ECNL showcases may draw more regionally among the smaller D1 and on programs but that is because there are simply more ECNL events than DA and many of the ECNL events are regional. Most players go to college within a half day drive anyways so this is more than sufficient.

DA showcases have fewer events but draw more coaches.

In either event coaches have limited time so they are there to look at players who have either reached out to them or their club coaches may have done so. But a college coach is still going to prioritize a player who is interested in their school over window shopping for a player who will become a bidding war. Top ten soccer programs are targeting YNT and YNTC players off the bar as well as statistical leaders and can afford to get into bidding wars.

If your DD is not one of the top 100 players in her age group then the player has to do the heavy lifting anyways. Frankly, a good player on a bad team playing against quality competition can stand out more to a coach than a good player on a great team. Think of it like trying to stand out at TJ if you are just average there. You are obviously still really smart but at that level you are average. The 3.7 at TJ may not pop the same as a 4.2 in run of the mill HS AP classes.

So for players to pop in front of non top ten, top twenty soccer coaches you need to show separation from your team and other players in the field. That doesn’t happen as easily if you are not the best player on your team.

It is nice that a club like FCV gets 40-70 coaches on their sideline but half of those coaches are really there to watch 2-3 players and the other half are there to watch up to 20 kids on two teams.

It is really about where your kid can both develop and be put in the best possible showcasing situation. And not to be forgotten is where is it the most fun to be. But a kid needs to be a top five player on their team in order to feel and play the part of a leading core player. Supporting role players, no matter how talented are just not alpha enough to pop.

Your top 5 player argument is false and it is getting old.

There are 333 D1 womens soccer programs (though not all fully funded). https://www.ncsasports.org/womens-soccer/division-1-colleges

The average roster size is 29.

The average recruiting class is 7.

333 D1 schools * 7 recruits per class = 2331

There are 52 ECNL clubs with a U18 team (from what I could find...this may be less)

There are 72 DA teams with a U18/19 team.

The average roster size is 18.

52+72=124 total teams

124*18=2232 total players

There are more openings for D1 schools than there are DA + ECNL players EVERY year.

This doesn't include D2 & D3 which are large in numbers. Only D1 & D2 offer athletic scholarships though.

If your DD doesn't completely suck, they can play in college at some level AND play D1 even if they come off the bench.

Play with the numbers all you want, the top 5 off of each team would only provide a player pool of 620 players to D1 teams.

You’re right. The argument is wrong and getting the old.

You can show this guy all the data you can find that shows he is wrong but his answer will continue to be that things are changing because (fill in the blank). His go-to is that Loudoun now has ECNL and that Loudoun ECNL is one of the biggest game-changers for the area in a decade.

Waste of time trying to use actual data and facts when he just keeps repeating the same crap over and over.

The numbers presented only back the claim that having to be at a club like FCV is not as important as it once was just to get recruited. There are lots of programs where a player can get recruited from so why not pick one closer to home and get more minutes while still getting recruited?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:any chance we can come full circle? Who thinks that all of the existing DA and ECNL teams will be around in 5 years? will there be consolidation or not? I think there will, even if it's consolidation by certain clubs becoming "destination" in this new age and others becoming less "elite." My vote is that FCV will remain a destination and Arlington will become a destination. BRYC and Mclean will no longer be destinations. MU will get absorbed into some larger club. I don't know much about Loudoun or VDA or the whole Maryland side of the river, although Bethesda/Mclean and Balt Armour/MD United may be stealing each others' players. My kids will be long gone by 5 years from now, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

I'll take a shot -

FCV. FCV will remain near the top but will not be as lofty as it is now. FCV's draw was based on two big claims: 1. it was the best option for high level success and recruitment in Loudoun, and 2. a reputation "that's where the top girls play" that drew in players from western Fairfax (and few from even further). The first part is now challenged by Loudoun joining ECNL (who as noted below, still has a ways to go), and by joining the DA, FCV already has and will continue to lose some top players who want to play high school. The second part is based in large part on what will be their rising senior class (most of whom were recruited over as a group from SYA). Their U15s are good too and will serve as something of a draw but once FCV loses its marquee team, parents of younger players will be less attracted to the program. Add in the uncertainty of the St. James acquisition, FCV will suffer but as long as there are soccer parents who will put up with obnoxious coaches and poor treatment in the hopes of seeing their little superstar win lots of tournament trophies, FCV will remain near the top of the Nova soccer pyramid.

Arlington. ASA is not and for the foreseeable will not be a destination club on the girls side. Joining the DA will not change that. Their coaches are not that good and the inability to play HS will cost them players (just check where the best players at Yorktown play club already). Arlington's best asset is it's strong rec and younger age travel program but that base is based on the club's geographic location. As the girls age, the club faces top competition from clubs (BRYC, McLean and even Bethesda) that are just as convenient, have had more success, have a better track record of getting players into top programs, more success on the field and better coaches. As a result, Arlington will continue to lose their top players, as they have historically.

BRYC and McLean face the same big question, although it's more pressing for BRYC - how do you replace the face of the program? With Larry having left BRYC and Clyde getting up there, both clubs will be pressed to maintain the quality and personality of the program. Both clubs are pretty even in terms of talent and results (eg, BRYC is ranked higher in three ECNL age groups, McLean is ranked higher in the other three). At BRYC, Mikey certainly doesn't bring the same demeanor as Larry but his teams have done well so will that success be enough to overcome his personality? BRYC does not draw heavily from the club's rec program so it will need to continue to impress in order to keep attracting top players from other local clubs. For McLean, I believe they will continue to a very viable and relatively successful travel program as they will continue to attract top players from their own large youth program but also from the neighboring Arlington and Vienna clubs. However, I don't think they'll again reach the heights of their u18/19 teams of the past two years as there are now too many other options around nor do the potential replacements have the draw the Clyde does. What McLean must avoid is becoming a second chance jobs program for soccer coaches like Arlington has.

Loudoun. With the addition of ECNL, they addressed their biggest issue by providing a reason for top players to stay with the club instead of seeking the paradise of ECNL and DA showcases offered by FCV, McLean and even BRYC. With a solid feeder program, I expect them to improve and over time, perhaps even surpass FCV, especially if more of FCV's training is transitioned to Springfield.

VDA. I've said before and I'll say again, VDA exists to serve (i) PWC parents with top players who are unwilling to fight traffic to give their kids better training at better clubs, or (ii) parents who want they child to be on an ECNL/DA level team but the kid can't get an offer from any other DA/ECNL club. I've seen nothing recently that would make me change my opinion, but they're are enough parents who fit into these categories that VDA will hobble along.

MU. Without the Spirit affiliation to draw players in and without any type of real feeder program, MU will struggle through one more season and then shut its doors. That's not a statement on the quality of the coaches but just the reality that the uncertainty of the club's future coupled with the lack of success last season will cause top current players to look for better alternatives, which starts momentum that can't be stopped.

[Anonymous]

Very fair analysis but can't you are that McLean has a deep coaching bench. Clyde is the TD and coaches younger ages but the coaches working with the older ages have a great track record.

[Anonymous]

Well written but aweful analysis

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Well written but aweful analysis

How so?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well written but aweful analysis

How so?

Where should I start?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Very fair analysis but can't you are that McLean has a deep coaching bench. Clyde is the TD and coaches younger ages but the coaches working with the older ages have a great track record.

Also, you are way too optimistic on Loudoun. They are a big club in terms of numbers and might retain more players if FCV stumbles, but their coaches are terrible at developing talent.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Very fair analysis but can't you are that McLean has a deep coaching bench. Clyde is the TD and coaches younger ages but the coaches working with the older ages have a great track record.

Also, you are way too optimistic on Loudoun. They are a big club in terms of numbers and might retain more players if FCV stumbles, but their coaches are terrible at developing talent.

Agree

VDA analysis is wrong as well.

Everything else is close enough

[Anonymous]

Here is another thing wrong. FCV going from Loudoun County to Springfield leaves good players in the area looking for DA or ECNL options. Many area families play DA but will not play for FCV in Springfield. MU as the only local DA will benefit from that. Loudoun too if a player is good with ECNL.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Here is another thing wrong. FCV going from Loudoun County to Springfield leaves good players in the area looking for DA or ECNL options. Many area families play DA but will not play for FCV in Springfield. MU as the only local DA will benefit from that. Loudoun too if a player is good with ECNL.

If they will drive to Restpn they will drive to Springfield

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Here is another thing wrong. FCV going from Loudoun County to Springfield leaves good players in the area looking for DA or ECNL options. Many area families play DA but will not play for FCV in Springfield. MU as the only local DA will benefit from that. Loudoun too if a player is good with ECNL.

If they will drive to Restpn they will drive to Springfield

Nope. You must not be from here. From Ashburn where MU practices is 15-20 minutes down Route 7 at rush hour. Springfield is 1 hour with tolls.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well written but aweful analysis

How so?

.

You don't know enough about MU to understand why it is likely to succeed. What you said is a good outsider's lens, but the internal momentum is completely absent. If anything, the Spirit affiliation was part of the problem. They treated it like a longer term version of Super Y; it was a marketing tool and a money maker. That's why they wanted such large rosters.

Now, there is an energy from families and coaches alike that want better. It's why they left their old clubs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well written but aweful analysis

How so?

Where should I start?

With any valid counter point.

Go

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Well written but aweful analysis

How so?

.

You don't know enough about MU to understand why it is likely to succeed. What you said is a good outsider's lens, but the internal momentum is completely absent. If anything, the Spirit affiliation was part of the problem. They treated it like a longer term version of Super Y; it was a marketing tool and a money maker. That's why they wanted such large rosters.

Now, there is an energy from families and coaches alike that want better. It's why they left their old clubs.

I wrote the original post (but not the “how so” question). I know more about Spirit than you give me credit for. Let’s agree to disagree but if you don’t want to agree, I’ll put money on my prediction for MU.