Reply to Girls DA/ECNL in VA: who will survive?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]any chance we can come full circle?  Who thinks that all of the existing DA and ECNL teams will be around in 5 years? will there be consolidation or not?  I think there will, even if it's consolidation by certain clubs becoming "destination" in this new age and others becoming less "elite."  My vote is that FCV will remain a destination and Arlington will become a destination. BRYC and Mclean will no longer be destinations. MU will get absorbed into some larger club. I don't know much about Loudoun or VDA or the whole Maryland side of the river, although Bethesda/Mclean and Balt Armour/MD United may be stealing each others' players. My kids will be long gone by 5 years from now, but it will be interesting to see what happens. [/quote]

I'll take a shot -

FCV. FCV will remain near the top but will not be as lofty as it is now.  FCV's draw was based on two big claims: 1. it was the best option for high level success and recruitment in Loudoun, and 2. a reputation "that's where the top girls play" that drew in players from western Fairfax (and few from even further).  The first part is now challenged by Loudoun joining ECNL (who as noted below, still has a ways to go), and by joining the DA, FCV already has and will continue to lose some top players who want to play high school.  The second part is based in large part on what will be their rising senior class (most of whom were recruited over as a group from SYA).  Their U15s are good too and will serve as something of a draw but once FCV loses its marquee team, parents of younger players will be less attracted to the program.  Add in the uncertainty of the St. James acquisition, FCV will suffer but as long as there are soccer parents who will put up with obnoxious coaches and poor treatment in the hopes of seeing their little superstar win lots of tournament trophies, FCV will remain near the top of the Nova soccer pyramid.

Arlington. ASA is not and for the foreseeable will not be a destination club on the girls side.  Joining the DA will not change that.  Their coaches are not that good and the inability to play HS will cost them players (just check where the best players at Yorktown play club already).  Arlington's best asset is it's strong rec and younger age travel program but that base is based on the club's geographic location. As the girls age, the club faces top competition from clubs (BRYC, McLean and even Bethesda) that are just as convenient, have had more success, have a better track record of getting players into top programs, more success on the field and better coaches.  As a result, Arlington will continue to lose their top players, as they have historically.

BRYC and McLean face the same big question, although it's more pressing for BRYC - how do you replace the face of the program?  With Larry having left BRYC and Clyde getting up there, both clubs will be pressed to maintain the quality and personality of the program.  Both clubs are pretty even in terms of talent and results (eg, BRYC is ranked higher in three ECNL age groups, McLean is ranked higher in the other three).  At BRYC, Mikey certainly doesn't bring the same demeanor as Larry but his teams have done well so will that success be enough to overcome his personality?  BRYC does not draw heavily from the club's rec program so it will need to continue to impress in order to keep attracting top players from other local clubs.  For McLean, I believe they will continue to a very viable and relatively successful travel program as they will continue to attract top players from their own large youth program but also from the neighboring Arlington and Vienna clubs.  However, I don't think they'll again reach the heights of their u18/19 teams of the past two years as there are now too many other options around nor do the potential replacements have the draw the Clyde does.  What McLean must avoid is becoming a second chance jobs program for soccer coaches like Arlington has.

Loudoun.  With the addition of ECNL, they addressed their biggest issue by providing a reason for top players to stay with the club instead of seeking the paradise of ECNL and DA showcases offered by FCV, McLean and even BRYC.  With a solid feeder program, I expect them to improve and over time, perhaps even surpass FCV, especially if more of FCV's training is transitioned to Springfield.

VDA. I've said before and I'll say again, VDA exists to serve (i) PWC parents with top players who are unwilling to fight traffic to give their kids better training at better clubs, or (ii) parents who want they child to be on an ECNL/DA level team but the kid can't get an offer from any other DA/ECNL club.  I've seen nothing recently that would make me change my opinion, but they're are enough parents who fit into these categories that VDA will hobble along.

MU.  Without the Spirit affiliation to draw players in and without any type of real feeder program, MU will struggle through one more season and then shut its doors.  That's not a statement on the quality of the coaches but just the reality that the uncertainty of the club's future coupled with the lack of success last season will cause top current players to look for better alternatives, which starts momentum that can't be stopped.

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