2022 Senate Map

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It is highly likely CCM and Kelly retain their seats, meaning the GA race will not decide control of the Senate.

If Dems can win all three, it really puts a lot of pressure on Manchin and Sinema & the filibuster.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If nv and az stay blue, ga is an afterthought as the Dems will have hit 50

If nv flips, then the runoff is what determines senate control

I cannot believe walker is this close, though. There are a LOT of deeply stupid people out there

AZ is red. NV is blue. GA is the lynchpin again.

Arizona is blue, Kelly has a big enough lead that everyone knows he won but is waiting for the remaining Maricopa County ballots to call it for some reason. In Nevada the Republican is ahead but the remaining ballots in Clark County (Las Vegas) probably will put Cortez-Masto on top. Democrats are likely to win both and keep the Senate before the Georgia runoff.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can AZ hurry up? Why is the vote count still stuck at 76%?

Better to get it all done at once, instead of trickling out.

In 2020, as Trump’s lead shrank more and more, people started congregating with guns at the election office’s in AZ. In short, as they realized Trump was losing they got more riled up.

Doing it in one fell swoop is probably safer.

There are tens of thousands of mail-in ballots that were not mailed-in but instead were taken to the polling place on Election Day. Each envelope has to go through signature verification in front of observers before the ballot can be added to the count. There are an unusual number of these in both Arizona and Nevada. Maybe people didn’t mail them because Republicans were threatening to try to invalidate dropbox and mailed ballots, but they didn’t want to stand in long lines, so they delivered the envelopes to their precinct.

But this is the same thing that happened in 2020. Arizona was taking a week to count mail-in ballots while every other state including PA and GA got through theirs overnight. Even Alaska locked in snow wasn’t this slow. What gives?

You didn’t read what I wrote. These weren’t mailed so signatures were not verified already. These were delivered on Election Day and each one has to be verified. The verification is slow, not the counting.

They need to pass a bill to fix that pronto. They know its a problem. No other state has this issue. 2024 is coming.

I think it's because AZ has had no-excuse mail-in/drop-off voting for a long time and it has become the dominant method of voting. Maricopa had something like 250k in person votes and over a million mail-in votes. It's not actually a problem unless you are really impatient or a conspiracy theorist.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is highly likely CCM and Kelly retain their seats, meaning the GA race will not decide control of the Senate.

If Dems can win all three, it really puts a lot of pressure on Manchin and Sinema & the filibuster.

There will be zero pressure on them if the Rs have the House because no controversial legislation would go anywhere anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can AZ hurry up? Why is the vote count still stuck at 76%?

Better to get it all done at once, instead of trickling out.

In 2020, as Trump’s lead shrank more and more, people started congregating with guns at the election office’s in AZ. In short, as they realized Trump was losing they got more riled up.

Doing it in one fell swoop is probably safer.

There are tens of thousands of mail-in ballots that were not mailed-in but instead were taken to the polling place on Election Day. Each envelope has to go through signature verification in front of observers before the ballot can be added to the count. There are an unusual number of these in both Arizona and Nevada. Maybe people didn’t mail them because Republicans were threatening to try to invalidate dropbox and mailed ballots, but they didn’t want to stand in long lines, so they delivered the envelopes to their precinct.

But this is the same thing that happened in 2020. Arizona was taking a week to count mail-in ballots while every other state including PA and GA got through theirs overnight. Even Alaska locked in snow wasn’t this slow. What gives?

You didn’t read what I wrote. These weren’t mailed so signatures were not verified already. These were delivered on Election Day and each one has to be verified. The verification is slow, not the counting.

They need to pass a bill to fix that pronto. They know its a problem. No other state has this issue. 2024 is coming.

I think it's because AZ has had no-excuse mail-in/drop-off voting for a long time and it has become the dominant method of voting. Maricopa had something like 250k in person votes and over a million mail-in votes. It's not actually a problem unless you are really impatient or a conspiracy theorist.

Impatient yes but there's a country of 330 million waiting on this outcome, so I think its warranted. And I still remember the AZ elections official standing up at the microphone every day looking like he was about to have a heart attack so it can't be good for them either.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It is highly likely CCM and Kelly retain their seats, meaning the GA race will not decide control of the Senate.

If Dems can win all three, it really puts a lot of pressure on Manchin and Sinema & the filibuster.

There will be zero pressure on them if the Rs have the House because no controversial legislation would go anywhere anyway.

+1. Best outcome in PPs scenario with the existing numbers is another 50/50 split with VP as tiebreaker in which case Manchin is still King and the Republicans will control the House anyway.

No filibuster. No social welfare. Straight no-BS legislation.

[Anonymous]

Based on this Manchin just got more powerful. Didn't know that was possible. Now both the Senate is beholden to him and the GOP House will do what he wants to get bills passed in the Senate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Based on this Manchin just got more powerful. Didn't know that was possible. Now both the Senate is beholden to him and the GOP House will do what he wants to get bills passed in the Senate.

It's great that a Democrat has so much power.

[Anonymous]

This is actually going to turn out great for the Ds. They're going to end up with a 51-49 Senate and R House with a single digit majority. Everyone will understand that no controversial legislation has any chance in the House, so there will be no pressure to pass it. This will let centrists in the House and Senate continue to play centrist. The power-sharing agreement with McConnell will be torn up, and Schumer will be able to focus on confirmations and hopefully we can get some balance back on the lower courts. The Senate should be a confirmation machine for the next two years.

Meanwhile, Biden will have a foil over in the House. McCarthy (if he even win the speaker election) is going to be threatened non-stop by his crazies while also trying to not kill the re-election chances for the dozen or so blue state Rs in NY, NJ, MD and CA that are giving him his majority. The crazies are going to want government shutdowns and debt ceiling fights to force cuts in SS and Medicare, which will be toxic in most of America. If he resists, he will be the enemy of the right and if he gives in the R brand will take a beating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is actually going to turn out great for the Ds. They're going to end up with a 51-49 Senate and R House with a single digit majority. Everyone will understand that no controversial legislation has any chance in the House, so there will be no pressure to pass it. This will let centrists in the House and Senate continue to play centrist. The power-sharing agreement with McConnell will be torn up, and Schumer will be able to focus on confirmations and hopefully we can get some balance back on the lower courts. The Senate should be a confirmation machine for the next two years.

Meanwhile, Biden will have a foil over in the House. McCarthy (if he even win the speaker election) is going to be threatened non-stop by his crazies while also trying to not kill the re-election chances for the dozen or so blue state Rs in NY, NJ, MD and CA that are giving him his majority. The crazies are going to want government shutdowns and debt ceiling fights to force cuts in SS and Medicare, which will be toxic in most of America. If he resists, he will be the enemy of the right and if he gives in the R brand will take a beating.

As long as the progressives shut up - brilliant.

And I still think it’ll be 50/50 - not that it matters with the House under R control.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Based on this Manchin just got more powerful. Didn't know that was possible. Now both the Senate is beholden to him and the GOP House will do what he wants to get bills passed in the Senate.

It's great that a Democrat has so much power.

Oh he’s a Democrat now? You all were calling him Satan a year ago.

[Anonymous]

I wonder if Manchin will decide to run for President.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is actually going to turn out great for the Ds. They're going to end up with a 51-49 Senate and R House with a single digit majority. Everyone will understand that no controversial legislation has any chance in the House, so there will be no pressure to pass it. This will let centrists in the House and Senate continue to play centrist. The power-sharing agreement with McConnell will be torn up, and Schumer will be able to focus on confirmations and hopefully we can get some balance back on the lower courts. The Senate should be a confirmation machine for the next two years.

Meanwhile, Biden will have a foil over in the House. McCarthy (if he even win the speaker election) is going to be threatened non-stop by his crazies while also trying to not kill the re-election chances for the dozen or so blue state Rs in NY, NJ, MD and CA that are giving him his majority. The crazies are going to want government shutdowns and debt ceiling fights to force cuts in SS and Medicare, which will be toxic in most of America. If he resists, he will be the enemy of the right and if he gives in the R brand will take a beating.

As long as the progressives shut up - brilliant.

And I still think it’ll be 50/50 - not that it matters with the House under R control.

50/50 vs 50/49 matters because 50/50 requires the power-sharing agreement, which gives McConnell tools to slow down confirmations.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Based on this Manchin just got more powerful. Didn't know that was possible. Now both the Senate is beholden to him and the GOP House will do what he wants to get bills passed in the Senate.

No. The House would be a bigger obstacle than the Senate and anything that the House passes would surely get some Republican votes in the Senate. In fact, there will be more bipartisanship in the Senate because Senate Republicans will not want to let House Republicans control their agenda. So Democratic Senators will work with the non-crazy Republicans in committees to create bipartisan or nonpartisan bills and then negotiate with the House. House Republicans are not going to be able to deliver 218 votes for anything bipartisan so House Democrats will have some influence as well. I worked for a House Democrat for 20 years and my boss had more influence when there was divided government than one party control. When President, House, and Senate are same party, that party’s Congress is pressured to shut up and rubber-stamp the White House agenda. When it’s divided, Congress has to work out the compromises and the President signs whatever can pass the House and Senate. You can’t do grandeous legislation, but you can pass reasonable appropriations bills and other necessary legislation if there are enough good-faith Republicans.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Based on this Manchin just got more powerful. Didn't know that was possible. Now both the Senate is beholden to him and the GOP House will do what he wants to get bills passed in the Senate.

No. The House would be a bigger obstacle than the Senate and anything that the House passes would surely get some Republican votes in the Senate. In fact, there will be more bipartisanship in the Senate because Senate Republicans will not want to let House Republicans control their agenda. So Democratic Senators will work with the non-crazy Republicans in committees to create bipartisan or nonpartisan bills and then negotiate with the House. House Republicans are not going to be able to deliver 218 votes for anything bipartisan so House Democrats will have some influence as well. I worked for a House Democrat for 20 years and my boss had more influence when there was divided government than one party control. When President, House, and Senate are same party, that party’s Congress is pressured to shut up and rubber-stamp the White House agenda. When it’s divided, Congress has to work out the compromises and the President signs whatever can pass the House and Senate. You can’t do grandeous legislation, but you can pass reasonable appropriations bills and other necessary legislation if there are enough good-faith Republicans.

That’s great. None of the lunatic unicorn bills of 2021 is fabulous.