2001, 2008, or 2022

[Anonymous]

Interesting thread:

https://twitter.com/annaeconomist/status/1527300319302262791?s=21&t=Jw4rThvoRSSzAufP8CFhbw

This chart is quite sobering:

https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1527301740189560833?s=20&t=7HGBl_4ron9i-9eSKfmDtA

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Interesting thread:

https://twitter.com/annaeconomist/status/1527300319302262791?s=21&t=Jw4rThvoRSSzAufP8CFhbw

This chart is quite sobering:

https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1527301740189560833?s=20&t=7HGBl_4ron9i-9eSKfmDtA

I can’t get the charts to post, but Here’s the text:

Anna Wong
@AnnaEconomist
Why chances are small for a Fed soft landing, and markets are still underpriced in hikes, in charts: 1.) All but five of the 15 tightening cycles we identified since the 1950s ended in recession. (1/4) Read more: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/RC3JLJT1UM0W…
@economics

Market expects (pink dotted line in chart) is shallower rate hike cycle than historical experience. The median tightening over the past 70 years is close to 400 basis points. (2/4)

The starting unemployment rate (3.8%) for the current cycle is the lowest in all 16 historical cycles. The larger the initial deviation of inflation and unemployment from target, the lower the chances for a soft landing, and the more the Fed will have to do to cool the economy.

The Fed began the current tightening cycle with the highest inflation rate save for two episodes: 1974 and 1980-81 (not reassuring). The inflation contrast is even sharper when compared with soft landing episodes. (4/4)

[Anonymous]

I think we have a ways to go on stock market repricing. Not a big deal and business as usual. I really now do not think a recession is close. This is not how a recession happens with everyone saying that it will. When everyone says it will it does not happen. Really 2024 is the time for the recession

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Aaaaaannd Google missed. MSFT did not post a strong ER with bullish guidance....if their call does not impress it is game over for the market.

This is going to get very ugly quick. Now the mega caps that make up the largest weighted portion of the indexes are going to get pounded into bone dust. Tesla just fell 11% in a day and makes up a huge portion of the index. This is going to be so brutal. We aren't even into sell in May and go away yet..oof.

LOL "game over". It's only brutal if you have a stupid portfolio populated with tech stocks.

you people panic so much...if you are panicking why are you invested?? The dow is down less than 10% YTD, S&P Down 12% and the NASDAQ is down 20%. if you are down more than 20% you clearly have no idea what you're doing. The NASDAQ is not "the market."

These types of declines are quite regular. Most investors just have a short term bias. Value stocks are holding up quite well. If you diversify just go back to bed and come back in a few months.

You are the dumb mindless type programmed to automatically buy the dip, because the fed was always there to save you over the last 14 years. The game is over because the Fed put no longer exists..so many idiots primed to buy any dip are going to get torched. The market has almost zero experience with quantitative tightening, so no, it really cannot be priced in easily as predictable rates hikes can that have models. Once QT happens it will also. completely upend the equity risk premium for owning stocks and.teillions will flow into bonds.

You are an idiot of you are oblivious to the lack of depth in this market. Once Apple, Tesla, Google, and Microsoft fall, all of the people that.mindlessly plug away investing into funds and ETFs that largely track the S and P 500.will get crushed.. There are tons of boomers now on the verge of retiring who may lose a huge amount of the retirement nest egg right before retiring.

Get it through your skull. There is no more fed put. There is QT.

Remember Tom Cruise jumping up and down on Oprah’s couch and calling Matt Lauer glib? That’s how crazy you sound.

[Anonymous]

Sure. It’s just the crazy people.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-may-be-barreling-toward-recession-in-next-year-more-experts-say/ar-AAXsJrH

This week alone, former Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein warned of a “very, very high risk” of recession; Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said there was “no question” that the U.S. economy is heading toward a downturn; and former Fed chair Ben Bernanke cautioned that the country could be poised for “stagflation” — a slowing economy combined with high inflation.


[And even Yellen, trying to sound positive, says:]

“I think it’s conceivable there could be a soft landing. It requires both skill and luck … I hope that’s the case, but this is a very difficult economic situation,” Yellen told reporters in Germany, citing economic shocks from the war and sanctions on Russia. “There’s a lot going on. … It’s not a straightforward matter.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sure. It’s just the crazy people.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-may-be-barreling-toward-recession-in-next-year-more-experts-say/ar-AAXsJrH

This week alone, former Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein warned of a “very, very high risk” of recession; Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said there was “no question” that the U.S. economy is heading toward a downturn; and former Fed chair Ben Bernanke cautioned that the country could be poised for “stagflation” — a slowing economy combined with high inflation.


[And even Yellen, trying to sound positive, says:]

“I think it’s conceivable there could be a soft landing. It requires both skill and luck … I hope that’s the case, but this is a very difficult economic situation,” Yellen told reporters in Germany, citing economic shocks from the war and sanctions on Russia. “There’s a lot going on. … It’s not a straightforward matter.”

Too bad voters can’t be mderstand the holders and blame dams entirely for the current economy.

[Anonymous]

If BBB had passed, just imagine how perfect things would be!

/s

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

I'm the PP who said we're all screwed. It either ends in a deflationary 1929 crash or a hyperinflation event. We have so much debt with a relatively short maturity that really the country cannot afford to service it at the much higher rates needed to tame inflation. So historically, countries in this position have inflated away the debt via currency devaluation. Some people think we're going to get a recession initially and then the Fed will have to step in and lower rates again by late 2022 or 2023 to prevent the 1929 style deflation, sending us into more inflation. Ultimately this sets up a move to the digital dollar, which sounds nuts but there's plenty of articles out there about it. Buckle up!

If you know so much, you should put your money where your mouth is. If you're right, you can make out like a bandit! But I've never seen a doom-and-gloomer actually follow through.

What makes you think I haven't already? I'm half cash, sold 10-20% ago and waiting for a big capitulation event to get back in. You sound very bitter, I'm sorry you didn't have the same foresight.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

I'm the PP who said we're all screwed. It either ends in a deflationary 1929 crash or a hyperinflation event. We have so much debt with a relatively short maturity that really the country cannot afford to service it at the much higher rates needed to tame inflation. So historically, countries in this position have inflated away the debt via currency devaluation. Some people think we're going to get a recession initially and then the Fed will have to step in and lower rates again by late 2022 or 2023 to prevent the 1929 style deflation, sending us into more inflation. Ultimately this sets up a move to the digital dollar, which sounds nuts but there's plenty of articles out there about it. Buckle up!

If you know so much, you should put your money where your mouth is. If you're right, you can make out like a bandit! But I've never seen a doom-and-gloomer actually follow through.

What makes you think I haven't already? I'm half cash, sold 10-20% ago and waiting for a big capitulation event to get back in. You sound very bitter, I'm sorry you didn't have the same foresight.

+1. And us doom and gloomers don’t really think this is the bottom. I’m sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the shit to actually hit the fan. Right now there are too many overly invested people delusional about the market’s prospects. Give it till October and you’ll all have to be cashing out to fund your boomer retirement once you work through whatever reserves you kept on hand. That’s when the crash is really coming. And I can’t wait. People live way beyond their means in this country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

I'm the PP who said we're all screwed. It either ends in a deflationary 1929 crash or a hyperinflation event. We have so much debt with a relatively short maturity that really the country cannot afford to service it at the much higher rates needed to tame inflation. So historically, countries in this position have inflated away the debt via currency devaluation. Some people think we're going to get a recession initially and then the Fed will have to step in and lower rates again by late 2022 or 2023 to prevent the 1929 style deflation, sending us into more inflation. Ultimately this sets up a move to the digital dollar, which sounds nuts but there's plenty of articles out there about it. Buckle up!

If you know so much, you should put your money where your mouth is. If you're right, you can make out like a bandit! But I've never seen a doom-and-gloomer actually follow through.

What makes you think I haven't already? I'm half cash, sold 10-20% ago and waiting for a big capitulation event to get back in. You sound very bitter, I'm sorry you didn't have the same foresight.

+1. And us doom and gloomers don’t really think this is the bottom. I’m sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the shit to actually hit the fan. Right now there are too many overly invested people delusional about the market’s prospects. Give it till October and you’ll all have to be cashing out to fund your boomer retirement once you work through whatever reserves you kept on hand. That’s when the crash is really coming. And I can’t wait. People live way beyond their means in this country.

This doesn’t make sense. The doom and gloomers are talking about a down market for a very, very long time so what does it matter if you magically find and invest in the bottom?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

I'm the PP who said we're all screwed. It either ends in a deflationary 1929 crash or a hyperinflation event. We have so much debt with a relatively short maturity that really the country cannot afford to service it at the much higher rates needed to tame inflation. So historically, countries in this position have inflated away the debt via currency devaluation. Some people think we're going to get a recession initially and then the Fed will have to step in and lower rates again by late 2022 or 2023 to prevent the 1929 style deflation, sending us into more inflation. Ultimately this sets up a move to the digital dollar, which sounds nuts but there's plenty of articles out there about it. Buckle up!

If you know so much, you should put your money where your mouth is. If you're right, you can make out like a bandit! But I've never seen a doom-and-gloomer actually follow through.

What makes you think I haven't already? I'm half cash, sold 10-20% ago and waiting for a big capitulation event to get back in. You sound very bitter, I'm sorry you didn't have the same foresight.

+1. And us doom and gloomers don’t really think this is the bottom. I’m sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the shit to actually hit the fan. Right now there are too many overly invested people delusional about the market’s prospects. Give it till October and you’ll all have to be cashing out to fund your boomer retirement once you work through whatever reserves you kept on hand. That’s when the crash is really coming. And I can’t wait. People live way beyond their means in this country.

This doesn’t make sense. The doom and gloomers are talking about a down market for a very, very long time so what does it matter if you magically find and invest in the bottom?

PP here. TBH, I think the real recession will be 2024. But honestly, as a millennial who graduated in 2008, we'll get through it. Right now boomers and Trump supporters are sitting on a crap ton of property, living beyond their means due to their belief that the gains of the last few year's stock markets were realized, etc. It may be schaudenfreude but I just want to watch them suffer consequences for once.

[Anonymous]

I am no expert but I found this useful:
https://www.investopedia.com/insights/recession-what-does-it-mean-investors/

Seems like we are at stage 2. I guess we are looking for the bottom and then some stability (stage 3).

Usually we don’t know if we had a recession until after it happened (2 quarters of negative, as determined by the fed once they have all the data in).

[Anonymous]

Apple and Tesla still need to fall a ton. There is still too much talk of bottoming out and people trying to buy the dip. It's only when the vast majority of people have had their hopes and dreams pulverized into bone dust do we bottom out. We aren't even at precovid levels yet, so all of the froth still hadn't been removed. Then we still gotta price in a recession. Long, long way to go down. I still see dumb tickers like $SNOW, TSLA, etc. trading for 100+ estimated P/Es. ARKK still exists and hasn't had to liquidate. Looooong way to drop still.

[Anonymous]

I wonder if a DMV rental property will be a better investment than a market index fund over this decade.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Apple and Tesla still need to fall a ton. There is still too much talk of bottoming out and people trying to buy the dip. It's only when the vast majority of people have had their hopes and dreams pulverized into bone dust do we bottom out. We aren't even at precovid levels yet, so all of the froth still hadn't been removed. Then we still gotta price in a recession. Long, long way to go down. I still see dumb tickers like $SNOW, TSLA, etc. trading for 100+ estimated P/Es. ARKK still exists and hasn't had to liquidate. Looooong way to drop still.

It is ridiculous Apple Tesla, Apple has such high profits that it’s P/E ratio is in the 20s, lol Tesla is it like 90