2001, 2008, or 2022

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

I'm the PP who said we're all screwed. It either ends in a deflationary 1929 crash or a hyperinflation event. We have so much debt with a relatively short maturity that really the country cannot afford to service it at the much higher rates needed to tame inflation. So historically, countries in this position have inflated away the debt via currency devaluation. Some people think we're going to get a recession initially and then the Fed will have to step in and lower rates again by late 2022 or 2023 to prevent the 1929 style deflation, sending us into more inflation. Ultimately this sets up a move to the digital dollar, which sounds nuts but there's plenty of articles out there about it. Buckle up!

What value would a digital dollar have? Physical dollars are a pittance. "As of December 31, 2020, there was $2,040.7 billion in circulation, totaling 50.3 billion notes in volume."

I guess you could remove all the banks from the equation and have all dollars be tokens issue directly by the Fed? How would that help the debt or reduce inflation?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

Yup..

Bonds are going to come roaring back with a vengeance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:2022 is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. They should have just let it run in 2020 to flush out the excesses, but now everything has inflated to an even bigger bubble.. It's just going to be much much more pain ultimately because we're all screwed no matter what they do.

LOL

You think the global financial system may be days away from failing? Ok..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What do you do with your money in a situation like this.

I’ve been steady investing 15-% of my net paycheck every 2 weeks into my taxable brokerage account. I’m going to just more doing this. It’s worked out well for me

That's fine, just don't expect rebounds like 2008-2021. The era of easy money and the bull market is over. Bear markets can last for very, veryong times. You better lrepr.for holding 10+ years in a worst case scenario. The Fed put is over because inflation is out of control. Bond yields are crawling out of their grave, which means there will be very attractive options in the future besides investing in stocks. Trillions may flow from stocks and into bonds.

I'm the PP who said we're all screwed. It either ends in a deflationary 1929 crash or a hyperinflation event. We have so much debt with a relatively short maturity that really the country cannot afford to service it at the much higher rates needed to tame inflation. So historically, countries in this position have inflated away the debt via currency devaluation. Some people think we're going to get a recession initially and then the Fed will have to step in and lower rates again by late 2022 or 2023 to prevent the 1929 style deflation, sending us into more inflation. Ultimately this sets up a move to the digital dollar, which sounds nuts but there's plenty of articles out there about it. Buckle up!

Are you a teenager? You sound like you're overly emotional.... it's going to be one of two polar opposite extremes?!?!?!? Really? You have no clue... idiot.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2022 is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. They should have just let it run in 2020 to flush out the excesses, but now everything has inflated to an even bigger bubble.. It's just going to be much much more pain ultimately because we're all screwed no matter what they do.

LOL

You think the global financial system may be days away from failing? Ok..

+1
Some folks here sound like novices who just started in on this game. Sit back guys, relax, it will all be OK in the end. Even after the 1929 crash the average investor recovered after 5 years. Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. There are no short cuts (there is LUCK, but only for a few). Play the long game.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2022 is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. They should have just let it run in 2020 to flush out the excesses, but now everything has inflated to an even bigger bubble.. It's just going to be much much more pain ultimately because we're all screwed no matter what they do.

LOL

You think the global financial system may be days away from failing? Ok..

+1
Some folks here sound like novices who just started in on this game. Sit back guys, relax, it will all be OK in the end. Even after the 1929 crash the average investor recovered after 5 years. Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. There are no short cuts (there is LUCK, but only for a few). Play the long game.

Thanks.
How would you invested a lump sum though? With only 10 years to go to retirement.

[Anonymous]

All the reirement withdrawal calculators (4% SWR) use 60% equities/40% fixed income or similar scenario. So you've got your money at that allocation which will support your withdrawal rates. A portfolio just in cash will not support the withdrawals for long.

I have NO idea how I could stomach this kind of uncertainty and volatility whild being retired!! How is one supposed to have a relaxing retirement worrying about the stock market??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:2022 is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park. They should have just let it run in 2020 to flush out the excesses, but now everything has inflated to an even bigger bubble.. It's just going to be much much more pain ultimately because we're all screwed no matter what they do.

LOL

You think the global financial system may be days away from failing? Ok..

+1
Some folks here sound like novices who just started in on this game. Sit back guys, relax, it will all be OK in the end. Even after the 1929 crash the average investor recovered after 5 years. Building wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. There are no short cuts (there is LUCK, but only for a few). Play the long game.

Thanks.
How would you invested a lump sum though? With only 10 years to go to retirement.

It depends on your overall portfolio balance, pension, etc... you want to be conservative (e.g., bonds, real estate, blue chip), but not too conservative in overall balance...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:All the reirement withdrawal calculators (4% SWR) use 60% equities/40% fixed income or similar scenario. So you've got your money at that allocation which will support your withdrawal rates. A portfolio just in cash will not support the withdrawals for long.

I have NO idea how I could stomach this kind of uncertainty and volatility whild being retired!! How is one supposed to have a relaxing retirement worrying about the stock market??

I'm very worried for my inlaws. My FIL has a pension that is in trouble, so no guarantee there. They then have their 401K which is declining by the day. They also still have a mortgage because they sold their NOVA house for a 700K net profit, financed 400K in a new home and invested the 700K. Bad move in hindsight, but it seemed good at the time. Even though heir mortgage is a 2.75 they are losing money in the market. They would have been better off buying the house in cash.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the reirement withdrawal calculators (4% SWR) use 60% equities/40% fixed income or similar scenario. So you've got your money at that allocation which will support your withdrawal rates. A portfolio just in cash will not support the withdrawals for long.

I have NO idea how I could stomach this kind of uncertainty and volatility whild being retired!! How is one supposed to have a relaxing retirement worrying about the stock market??

I'm very worried for my inlaws. My FIL has a pension that is in trouble, so no guarantee there. They then have their 401K which is declining by the day. They also still have a mortgage because they sold their NOVA house for a 700K net profit, financed 400K in a new home and invested the 700K. Bad move in hindsight, but it seemed good at the time. Even though heir mortgage is a 2.75 they are losing money in the market. They would have been better off buying the house in cash.

How old are they? As long as they have cashflow to cover them over the next couple of years, they should be fine. Markets eventually recover. If it doesn't, have the write over the house to you guys and move into your house. That's what we are doing with my in-laws (2 siblings take turns actually).

[Anonymous]

2001 was a blip. 2008 was gone by 2012. 2022 will be a decent year. Recession possible 2023-24 but not likely.

[Anonymous]

I don't think 2022 is anything like previous crashes. We are barely in correction territory. Compare to historical crashes, it hasn't been that bad (yet).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:All the reirement withdrawal calculators (4% SWR) use 60% equities/40% fixed income or similar scenario. So you've got your money at that allocation which will support your withdrawal rates. A portfolio just in cash will not support the withdrawals for long.

I have NO idea how I could stomach this kind of uncertainty and volatility whild being retired!! How is one supposed to have a relaxing retirement worrying about the stock market??

I'm very worried for my inlaws. My FIL has a pension that is in trouble, so no guarantee there. They then have their 401K which is declining by the day. They also still have a mortgage because they sold their NOVA house for a 700K net profit, financed 400K in a new home and invested the 700K. Bad move in hindsight, but it seemed good at the time. Even though heir mortgage is a 2.75 they are losing money in the market. They would have been better off buying the house in cash.

I'm sorry pp, that's stressful. Life should not be this hard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don't think 2022 is anything like previous crashes. We are barely in correction territory. Compare to historical crashes, it hasn't been that bad (yet).

It feels so much worse.