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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Interesting thread:

https://twitter.com/annaeconomist/status/1527300319302262791?s=21&t=Jw4rThvoRSSzAufP8CFhbw

This chart is quite sobering:

https://twitter.com/AnnaEconomist/status/1527301740189560833?s=20&t=7HGBl_4ron9i-9eSKfmDtA

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I can’t get the charts to post, but Here’s the text:

Anna Wong
@AnnaEconomist
Why chances are small for a Fed soft landing, and markets are still underpriced in hikes, in charts: 1.) All but five of the 15 tightening cycles we identified since the 1950s ended in recession. (1/4) Read more: https://blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories/RC3JLJT1UM0W… 
@economics

Market expects (pink dotted line in chart) is shallower rate hike cycle than historical experience. The median tightening over the past 70 years is close to 400 basis points. (2/4)

The starting unemployment rate (3.8%) for the current cycle is the lowest in all 16 historical cycles. The larger the initial deviation of inflation and unemployment from target, the lower the chances for a soft landing, and the more the Fed will have to do to cool the economy.

The Fed began the current tightening cycle with the highest inflation rate save for two episodes: 1974 and 1980-81 (not reassuring). The inflation contrast is even sharper when compared with soft landing episodes. (4/4)

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