$7/gallon gas is coming

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can we quit pretending that the price rise is some organic, invisible hand of the market event?

I thought Biden had heroically brought gas prices down singlehandedly? Hard to keep their lines straight.

In any case, crude prices declined until September (to levels that are still very high) but are rising now. The future market is quite meaningful when it comes to gas prices.

[Anonymous]

In any case Russia is getting beat by Ukraine and they are playing this card.
F Russia

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how we’ve reached the point where Venezuela and Iran are the attractive options to alleviate the oil problem. If only we had massive quantities of accesible oil in the USA and Canada. I guess we’d rather help Iran and VZ than help the MAGAs.

Neither of them are any worse than the Saudis, which is the source that was keeping oil prices low for the last several years. There is no substantial low cost oil in the US or Canada. Those are high cost options that can only be profitable at consistently high oil prices.

Really?

This is happening because we are making a huge issue out of Khashoggi. I'm not justifying his murder, but Iran is murdering dozens of protesters a day right now, and is actively trying to assassinate US citizens including former govt officials. And how are we responding to that? By trying to broker a new JCPOA with Iran, with Russia as the mediator. Naturally, this makes the Saudis and all our other long term allies think we are fickle, unreliable, and currently hostile.

I dont have any gas powered cars. This doesnt affect me. I still think you're all throwing away economic stability and our security because you cant properly contextualize news stories and got carried away with outrahe porn.

Really. Khashoggi is not even a blip on saudis bad behavior. You should read up on their Yemen war, their treatment of dissidents (yes, they execute them just like Iran), their treatment of religious minorities, and their support for terror.

Oh right, because it will look totally different from Iran's history.

Saudi Arabia's military is essentially a wholly owned subsidiary of the US govt. Nothing they've done in the war with Yemen wasnt done without US military equipment.

By these standards (cant have wars, cant mistreat minorities, cant execute criminals) we cant even do business with ourselves.

Thanks for agreeing with me? No, it's not much different from Iran. That's my point. Both countries are bad actors. We've made our Iran policy into this weird morality play where we oppose them because of the country is run by oppressive religious extremists who disregard human rights, fund terror, and destabilize neighboring countries. At the same time, we are close allies with Saudi Arabia, which also fits that same description.

This worked out for 40 years because, in return for the US making their arch rival into a weakened pariah state, Saudi reliability pumped oil at low prices, particularly when there were geopolitical problems. They've decided they no longer want to do that, so there is no reason for us to continue isolating Iran for them.

Alternatively, we could stop being a bull in a China shop and repair our relationships.

Biden already tried that. He went over there in a big trip, remember? And bin Salman decided to snub him.

In the long run, it is much better for US interests to have two huge oil producers who are in competition with each other. The Saudi strategy paid off for a while, but we now see the limits of relying on one country.

But they aren’t in competition with each other! Iran is an OPEC member. Russia is a party to OPEC+. That’s the part this admin doesn’t seem to get.

They very much are in competition. OPEC has historically had a very hard time actually agreeing to and enforcing output quotas, and that has in large part been due to the Iran-Saudi competition. When Iran started getting bid sanctions on its oil exports, it lost leverage in this fight and Saudi can more or less dictate what OPEC does.

And yet OPEC+ has had incredible quota discipline since Texas shale emerged as a viable threat to become the swing producer. The facts changed and historical experiences are no longer strong indicators of future performance.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can we quit pretending that the price rise is some organic, invisible hand of the market event?

Hmm, the following suggests rising prices in connection with constrained supplies. But I’m sure Gavin cares about the nuance and understanding complex markets.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how we’ve reached the point where Venezuela and Iran are the attractive options to alleviate the oil problem. If only we had massive quantities of accesible oil in the USA and Canada. I guess we’d rather help Iran and VZ than help the MAGAs.

Neither of them are any worse than the Saudis, which is the source that was keeping oil prices low for the last several years. There is no substantial low cost oil in the US or Canada. Those are high cost options that can only be profitable at consistently high oil prices.

Really?

This is happening because we are making a huge issue out of Khashoggi. I'm not justifying his murder, but Iran is murdering dozens of protesters a day right now, and is actively trying to assassinate US citizens including former govt officials. And how are we responding to that? By trying to broker a new JCPOA with Iran, with Russia as the mediator. Naturally, this makes the Saudis and all our other long term allies think we are fickle, unreliable, and currently hostile.

I dont have any gas powered cars. This doesnt affect me. I still think you're all throwing away economic stability and our security because you cant properly contextualize news stories and got carried away with outrahe porn.

Really. Khashoggi is not even a blip on saudis bad behavior. You should read up on their Yemen war, their treatment of dissidents (yes, they execute them just like Iran), their treatment of religious minorities, and their support for terror.

Oh right, because it will look totally different from Iran's history.

Saudi Arabia's military is essentially a wholly owned subsidiary of the US govt. Nothing they've done in the war with Yemen wasnt done without US military equipment.

By these standards (cant have wars, cant mistreat minorities, cant execute criminals) we cant even do business with ourselves.

Thanks for agreeing with me? No, it's not much different from Iran. That's my point. Both countries are bad actors. We've made our Iran policy into this weird morality play where we oppose them because of the country is run by oppressive religious extremists who disregard human rights, fund terror, and destabilize neighboring countries. At the same time, we are close allies with Saudi Arabia, which also fits that same description.

This worked out for 40 years because, in return for the US making their arch rival into a weakened pariah state, Saudi reliability pumped oil at low prices, particularly when there were geopolitical problems. They've decided they no longer want to do that, so there is no reason for us to continue isolating Iran for them.

Alternatively, we could stop being a bull in a China shop and repair our relationships.

Biden already tried that. He went over there in a big trip, remember? And bin Salman decided to snub him.

In the long run, it is much better for US interests to have two huge oil producers who are in competition with each other. The Saudi strategy paid off for a while, but we now see the limits of relying on one country.

Yeah, Biden went ONE time after years of snubbing MBS. It's entitled to think that will fix it.

And, we dont rely on one country. We rely on many countries and KSA isnt even in the top 3.

This relationship is way more than oil. KSA allowed us to launch a war from their country. It has been an extremely intimate relationship, all thrown away due to our hypocritical moralizing.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how we’ve reached the point where Venezuela and Iran are the attractive options to alleviate the oil problem. If only we had massive quantities of accesible oil in the USA and Canada. I guess we’d rather help Iran and VZ than help the MAGAs.

Neither of them are any worse than the Saudis, which is the source that was keeping oil prices low for the last several years. There is no substantial low cost oil in the US or Canada. Those are high cost options that can only be profitable at consistently high oil prices.

That is not true. Or more precisely it's complicated. American shale is mid range in terms of production cost. But the problem is that is sweet and our ancient refineries are set up for sour. Saudi produces sour and has very low production costs. The main problem is not oil it is refineries. We havent built a new refinery since Jimmy Carter. We've even lost refineries since the pandemic. Frankly we need more refineries and we need refineries that can process the grade of oil that we produce.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can we quit pretending that the price rise is some organic, invisible hand of the market event?

Hmm, the following suggests rising prices in connection with constrained supplies. But I’m sure Gavin cares about the nuance and understanding complex markets.

[…]

I’m not sure that a “contrarian investment research” is an uninterested party.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I love how we’ve reached the point where Venezuela and Iran are the attractive options to alleviate the oil problem. If only we had massive quantities of accesible oil in the USA and Canada. I guess we’d rather help Iran and VZ than help the MAGAs.

Neither of them are any worse than the Saudis, which is the source that was keeping oil prices low for the last several years. There is no substantial low cost oil in the US or Canada. Those are high cost options that can only be profitable at consistently high oil prices.

Really?

This is happening because we are making a huge issue out of Khashoggi. I'm not justifying his murder, but Iran is murdering dozens of protesters a day right now, and is actively trying to assassinate US citizens including former govt officials. And how are we responding to that? By trying to broker a new JCPOA with Iran, with Russia as the mediator. Naturally, this makes the Saudis and all our other long term allies think we are fickle, unreliable, and currently hostile.

I dont have any gas powered cars. This doesnt affect me. I still think you're all throwing away economic stability and our security because you cant properly contextualize news stories and got carried away with outrahe porn.

Really. Khashoggi is not even a blip on saudis bad behavior. You should read up on their Yemen war, their treatment of dissidents (yes, they execute them just like Iran), their treatment of religious minorities, and their support for terror.

Oh right, because it will look totally different from Iran's history.

Saudi Arabia's military is essentially a wholly owned subsidiary of the US govt. Nothing they've done in the war with Yemen wasnt done without US military equipment.

By these standards (cant have wars, cant mistreat minorities, cant execute criminals) we cant even do business with ourselves.

Thanks for agreeing with me? No, it's not much different from Iran. That's my point. Both countries are bad actors. We've made our Iran policy into this weird morality play where we oppose them because of the country is run by oppressive religious extremists who disregard human rights, fund terror, and destabilize neighboring countries. At the same time, we are close allies with Saudi Arabia, which also fits that same description.

This worked out for 40 years because, in return for the US making their arch rival into a weakened pariah state, Saudi reliability pumped oil at low prices, particularly when there were geopolitical problems. They've decided they no longer want to do that, so there is no reason for us to continue isolating Iran for them.

Alternatively, we could stop being a bull in a China shop and repair our relationships.

Biden already tried that. He went over there in a big trip, remember? And bin Salman decided to snub him.

In the long run, it is much better for US interests to have two huge oil producers who are in competition with each other. The Saudi strategy paid off for a while, but we now see the limits of relying on one country.

Yeah, Biden went ONE time after years of snubbing MBS. It's entitled to think that will fix it.

And, we dont rely on one country. We rely on many countries and KSA isnt even in the top 3.

This relationship is way more than oil. KSA allowed us to launch a war from their country. It has been an extremely intimate relationship, all thrown away due to our hypocritical moralizing.

Allowed us to launch a war from their country to protect them from being invaded. What a bunch of nice guys!

There's no reason to keep kissing up to them while sanctioning their enemy into oblivion. We have no strategic reason to be enemies with Iran. We can have normal trading relations with both countries, just like we do with many other bad regimes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Can we quit pretending that the price rise is some organic, invisible hand of the market event?

Hmm, the following suggests rising prices in connection with constrained supplies. But I’m sure Gavin cares about the nuance and understanding complex markets.

[…]

I’m not sure that a “contrarian investment research” is an uninterested party.

Pulling data from EIA …

[Anonymous]

I wonder if he is regretting any of his EO's during his first day in office......

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

A nuclear Iran is the shortsighted policy.
Or perhaps we’d like to be threatened by Iran with nuclear war too?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I wonder if he is regretting any of his EO's during his first day in office......

All of this. Its borderline offensive that Biden thinks Americans will believe gas station owners are behind the price escalations. Newsome in particular sounds moronic when he complains about California having the highest gas prices in the US. I mean, if only there were a man in charge that could address that, right Gavin? This is of their own making bc they pushed too hard to make green energy happen before it was viable. This year, the world will burn more coal than any other year on record. Failed policies that actually increase carbon emissions while gutting the pocketboooks of the middle and working class.

[Anonymous]

The problems electric cars are causing post hurricane in FL tells the tale of ‘not ready for prime-time’.

[Anonymous]

Coming soon to America and to think we were energy independent less than 24 months ago.