FCPS Skyview Boundary Revised Scenario 1 / 2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Moving 77 poor kids out of one elementary school will substantially reduce its Farms rate. So Seema is really enriching her neighbors all the way thru the pyramid. Trashy.

The apartment kids are staying at Bull Run, but she moved them out of Liberty, so Liberty and CVHS es rates will go down noticeably.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moving 77 poor kids out of one elementary school will substantially reduce its Farms rate. So Seema is really enriching her neighbors all the way thru the pyramid. Trashy.

The apartment kids are staying at Bull Run, but she moved them out of Liberty, so Liberty and CVHS es rates will go down noticeably.

Moving 77 FARMs students out of Centreville HS moves it from 27 to 24%.

This is a non-issue. cVHS is just another average FCPS school with or without those 77 students.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:So the Westfield parents were reasonable, happy to take any kids zoned into their school, and followed the procedures they were supposed to: emailing the SB and commenting on the boundary tool. And their school is being treated like trash.

So the message to the rest of FCPS families for any future boundary changes is don't follow the given procedures, harass and hound Reid and the SB members, make sure a lobbyist and someone who works at Gatehouse lives in your neighborhood, and lie about being able to hear a school band. Whatever you do, don't be polite and reasonable.

I think Westfield is in a weird position because:

1) The schools moving out of Westfield are higher FARMs schools, so their departure doesn't really impact the AP program since most of the kids leaving probably are not in those classes
2) Floris makes sense in terms of location and reunifying a split feeder school
3) It is weird to be vocal about "We want these ES to be moved because we are losing a lot of kids and we need those seats backfilled"
4) Most people don't want to anger others by demanding that their kids are moved to your school, regardless of how proud you are of the school.

It is a perfect storm made worse by the fact that Dixit lives in a neighborhood that should move and she doesn't want to so there is no chance that is going to happen.

This isn't accurate. Its a mix of SES kids moving out.

How many Floris kids vs how many FARMs kids?

McNair is 44% FARMs (about 457 students)
Coates is 54% FARMs (about 882 students)
Floris is 13% FARMs (about 624 Students)

Westfield is losing a lot of poverty with the schools that are moving out. Probably far more then they are gaining with the few kids moving to the school. Roughly 2/3 of the kids moving out are FARMs, that is huge.

Huh?

I did an analysis just looking at the size of the current 6th grade classes at Coates, Floris, and McNair Upper, based on the overall FARMS rates reported in 2024-25. It suggests that on a combined basis Coates, Floris, and McNair Upper would have a FARMS rate of about 32.8%, nowhere near 2/3 of the kids.

In 2024-25, Westfield's FARMS rate was 31.3%, so the kids moving out are probably slightly higher FARMS than Westfield. On the other hand, the kids moving into Westfield from Chantilly and Centreville may be substantially higher FARMS, since those areas are understood to be some of the higher FARMS neighborhoods at Brookfield (58.0% overall FARMS in 2024-25), Bull Run (43.1% overall FARMS in 2024-25), and Cub Run (22.9% overall FARMS in 2024-25).

So the Westfield parents are right to think that the Skyview-related changes will leave their school substantially smaller, and likely with a higher FARMS rate to boot. That's the double whammy for them.

You cannot include Floris in that combination because most of the FARMS kids from Floris are currently at Westfield if housing has anything to do with it. While there are some affluent kids assigned to Floris, those assigned to South Lakes are almost all affluent.

I recognize this says more about a portion of the students being moved to Skyview than it does about the students moving out of Westfield, but I think it’s still directionally accurate.

APS and FCPS have been far more transparent than FCPS in recent years about the impact of proposed and adopted boundary changes on school demographics. FCPS wants to claim that such considerations are irrelevant, yet we know School Board members continue to intervene in boundary studies with demographics in mind.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moving 77 poor kids out of one elementary school will substantially reduce its Farms rate. So Seema is really enriching her neighbors all the way thru the pyramid. Trashy.

The apartment kids are staying at Bull Run, but she moved them out of Liberty, so Liberty and CVHS es rates will go down noticeably.

Moving 77 FARMs students out of Centreville HS moves it from 27 to 24%.

This is a non-issue. cVHS is just another average FCPS school with or without those 77 students.

It’s more of the impact to neighboring schools. Centreville starts at 27% and Westfield starts at 31% both comfortably average. With the move, Centreville drops to 24% and Westfield creeps up to 35%. Two schools that were once 4 points apart are now 11 (and that’s just counting the Centreville shift and not the impacts of Chantilly.) Centreville settles into a position of comfortably average FCPS pyramid while Westfield spirals into a pyramid to avoid. The non-issue would be Centreville sending a balanced population.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moving 77 poor kids out of one elementary school will substantially reduce its Farms rate. So Seema is really enriching her neighbors all the way thru the pyramid. Trashy.

The apartment kids are staying at Bull Run, but she moved them out of Liberty, so Liberty and CVHS es rates will go down noticeably.

Moving 77 FARMs students out of Centreville HS moves it from 27 to 24%.

This is a non-issue. cVHS is just another average FCPS school with or without those 77 students.

It’s more of the impact to neighboring schools. Centreville starts at 27% and Westfield starts at 31% both comfortably average. With the move, Centreville drops to 24% and Westfield creeps up to 35%. Two schools that were once 4 points apart are now 11 (and that’s just counting the Centreville shift and not the impacts of Chantilly.) Centreville settles into a position of comfortably average FCPS pyramid while Westfield spirals into a pyramid to avoid. The non-issue would be Centreville sending a balanced population.

I think you need to show your math here, because some of the assertions made recently have simply been wrong. For example, even a high FARMS area is unlikely to be 100% FARMS.

[Anonymous]

Looks like a pattern is emerging, segregate kids by SES, then apply equal outcomes and everyone is happy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Moving 77 poor kids out of one elementary school will substantially reduce its Farms rate. So Seema is really enriching her neighbors all the way thru the pyramid. Trashy.

The apartment kids are staying at Bull Run, but she moved them out of Liberty, so Liberty and CVHS es rates will go down noticeably.

Moving 77 FARMs students out of Centreville HS moves it from 27 to 24%.

This is a non-issue. cVHS is just another average FCPS school with or without those 77 students.

It’s more of the impact to neighboring schools. Centreville starts at 27% and Westfield starts at 31% both comfortably average. With the move, Centreville drops to 24% and Westfield creeps up to 35%. Two schools that were once 4 points apart are now 11 (and that’s just counting the Centreville shift and not the impacts of Chantilly.) Centreville settles into a position of comfortably average FCPS pyramid while Westfield spirals into a pyramid to avoid. The non-issue would be Centreville sending a balanced population.

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I agree with this summary.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seema is the only SB member who flat out ignored me, and I live in Sully and have three kids in FCPS.

I got canned responses back from everyone else.

How are the Walney Oaks and RIO people getting in person meetings? I'm baffled.

RIO has an actual lobbyist as part of the group and is using political connections to get meetings/wheel and deal. They also have a member who works at Gatehouse and used that connection to meet with Reid and her staff. I assume Walney was easy because Seema lives there.

3 statements - each inaccurate.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:It was short sighted of the RIO people, because once Oakton is overcrowded, they are the first ones to go, and its going to be to South Lakes.

Uh huh. That's like saying Langley is just a few years away from seeing some of its neighborhoods moved to Herndon. You may wish that happens, but the people at those schools know how to work the system far better than you can ever imagine.

In the mean time our kids will be packed into the high school like sardines. Oakton will be the new Chantilly.

Oakton has more permanent capacity and a larger campus than Chantilly. If it hits the same enrollment as Chantilly, the overcrowding may not feel quite as obvious.

Bad but "not quite as obvious" as the current worst overcrowded school is a pretty low bar to aim for when we just spent taxpayer money on a whole new high school to alleviate exactly this problem in this part of the county.

Yes. And, especially since the new high school could have given justified relief to Oakton.

Tell that to the families that fought the relief. If other families at Oakton were concerned about the overcrowding, they could have supported Crossfield moving to Skyview. All it took was writing letters and commenting on the scenarios. Instead they didn't say anything, which tells me that the crowding at Oakton isn't as bad as you think it is.

It's at 103% with 2000 housing units coming online according to the school board post earlier. My count is higher, but I think FCPS only counts shovel ready projects.

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:If they had done this properly and stuck to objective standards, this could have been settled months ago. And, with a lot less angst.

In the past, SB members were always non-committal to neighborhoods, while at least pretending to listen. I never recall an earlier superintendent making promises or even getting involved. Staff was involved, but we never saw the superintendents.

It was mostly SB members doing the wheeling and dealing, but they were careful not to make promises.

Reid promised Walney Oaks. Somehow, they were taken totally out of the equation. And, those final scenarios did not include most of Crossfield.

I don't see them changing it now, but the School Board could if they wanted to do so. I don't think they will.

I still wonder if Kyle McDaniel and Melanie Meren will join together at the last minute to strike some sort of deal with everyone else to swap Crossfield and Fox Mill. They both seem pretty adamant about putting Crossfield at Skyview and keeping Fox Mill out.

Why would they do this when it would piss off so many people?

Does a better job of balancing the enrollments at Oakton and South Lakes.

Gets rid of some of the longest commutes to a high school in FCPS.

Does not start to recreate the conditions that led a prior School Board to move kids into South Lakes in 2008.

Relieves overcrowding at Oakton at a time when substantial residential growth is expected closer to OHS.

Keeps families already mostly at an AP school at an AP school.

The path of least resistance is to move Fox Mill but objectively moving Crossfield to Skyview makes more sense. But we have a School Board and superintendent who regularly cater to the loudest voices with the most money.

That ship has sailed. Meren might try, but she is way too late to the party.

Looking at this objectively, that would have been the correct call.

I was involved in boundary studies in the past--that is why I follow this thread. So many mistakes made here:

In the past, politics were involved, but it was usually one neighborhood's argument against another. It was not just which neighborhood had more power. (Except, of course, South Lakes boundary study with Strauss refused to pony up any of her constituents while totally supporting Stu and Kathy's game.)

This has dragged out way too long. The Comprehensive Boundary study was underway when this started. When Skyview was purchased, common sense would have said that the Comp. Boundary should be delayed until Skyview was set. Skyview easily could have been set right away.

RIO stepped in VERY early in this process. Seems to me that they had a "heads up!"

As I recall, and someone on here may know, I think I read about Reid listening to Walney Oaks very early in this process. I don't know when or where the meeting occurred. But, someone needs to give a logical answer to how this happened. Why that one pocket? Doesn't make sense.

Honestly, Westfield could have come out of this very well balanced. Someone really dropped the ball here looking out for thier schools. The initials of that someone are S.D.

It has been said repeatedly that RIO has a member that works at Gatehouse and political connections. They had the maps before everyone else, including the Lees Corner map that ended up never being released.

It keeps being repeated, but it was never true!

[Anonymous]

Sorry if already posted, but what’s the projected FARMS rate at Skyview?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Sorry if already posted, but what’s the projected FARMS rate at Skyview?

They won't share any FARMs rate information. You have to puzzle it out for yourself.

[Anonymous]

The split feeder at Franklin Middle School is going to be mostly Oakton now (Crossfield, Waples Mill, most of Navy) while only Lees Corner and the small western portion of Navy will attend Chantilly. (Assuming Brookfield will be at Rocky Run and Oak Hill will be at Carson.)

Wouldn't it make sense for Navy and Lees Corner students to have their AAP center at Rocky Run instead of Rachel Carson? Is that a possibility in FCPS to have your middle school feed to different centers depending on the high school?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

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Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If they had done this properly and stuck to objective standards, this could have been settled months ago. And, with a lot less angst.

In the past, SB members were always non-committal to neighborhoods, while at least pretending to listen. I never recall an earlier superintendent making promises or even getting involved. Staff was involved, but we never saw the superintendents.

It was mostly SB members doing the wheeling and dealing, but they were careful not to make promises.

Reid promised Walney Oaks. Somehow, they were taken totally out of the equation. And, those final scenarios did not include most of Crossfield.

I don't see them changing it now, but the School Board could if they wanted to do so. I don't think they will.

I still wonder if Kyle McDaniel and Melanie Meren will join together at the last minute to strike some sort of deal with everyone else to swap Crossfield and Fox Mill. They both seem pretty adamant about putting Crossfield at Skyview and keeping Fox Mill out.

I doubt it.

Meren wants to keep Fox Mill at SLHS but she will never stand up to RIO. In fact she seems very close to some of RIO moms.

McDaniel wanted to move Crossfield to Skyview. His concern was travel to Oakton and split feeder pattern at Carson. I think he initally suppoted moving both Crossfield and Fox Mill to Skyview although it seems he got enough beatings from RIO moms.

Meren and McDaniel's postions are not entirely aligned and I don't think they will broker a deal. Even if they did, they may get outvoted.

+1. Both McDaniel and Meren know that Fox Mill is a very tight-knit community with parents who are vocal and actively engaged. Despite what gets said on this board, they generally have a good relationship with the Fox Mill ES community.

They don’t gain much by upsetting a community that has been willing to work with them. It would only create a situation where a large group of engaged parents becomes fully opposed to them.

Meren has a good relationship with the parents that want to stay at SLHS but has not engaged with the parents who want to move. The only FB comments she replies to are the ones that share her feelings. There are "I hear you" repliess on the keep SLHS whole posts and silence on the posts saying they are happy to be moving and why. Some of the people who emailed and posted on her FB page have found that they were removed from her mailing list. FMES PTA had asked to meet with Meren regarding the boundary changes and Skyview, she cancelled a meeting in November and I don't think she every rescheduled it. At one meeting in December she was asked about the Western HS and she said that the only people she know who wanted to move were families with nuero divergent kids.

No offense but there are a decent number of FMES parents who are hoping that there is someone decent to vote for that isn't Meren. She has lost a good number of votes with how she has handled this. She can have a different opinion, there are plenty of good reasons for her to disagree with me, but she has not engaged in conversation with anyone who disagrees with her in the neighborhood. It sounds like she has not much to engage in conversation with the members of the School Board either.

She hosted numerous open community meetings rather than trying to meet w/ individual PTAs. I'm not sure I would fault her for that - it's not like she didn't show up, in-person, and make herself available. She also attended all the Western Boundary meetings and engaged.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just used Folkstone/West Ox as a starting point. Almost 10 miles to Oakton and less than 3 to Carson.
Using Crossfield as the starting point is bogus. No one going to Carson lives that far.

And, the time--using express lanes is 15 minutes.
Eight minutes to Carson.

And, most of the population lives closer to Carson than that intersection.

He must be getting pushback from some Crossfield people now.

This tells me that Meren is putting pressure on him now. She's had a year to do that.

Really - what MS do you think those students across from Crossfield attend? And why do you think that you know better than their actual experience?
From my home near Crossfield my child's Carson bus ride was always significantly longer than their current ride to Oakton.