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Reply to "Polls and Lols: A 2020 Master Thread"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]NEW Politico/Morning Consult Poll: [img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOVnBO6WAAIIy9G?format=jpg&name=medium[/img] Americans who "strongly disapprove" of Trump outnumber those who "somewhat approve" and "strongly approve" COMBINED. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016f-a648-d64c-a9ff-f75a8c960000[/quote] What's perhaps more relevant is that strongly disapprove is at 43%. And the Strongly approve + somewhat approve adds up to 43% too. In a typical election the Democrats are guaranteed 43% of the vote, no matter what. Same for the Republicans. Each side will get a minimum of 43%. There is that 11% who somewhat disapprove. Which means they don't feel so strongly as to a strongly disapprove of Trump. Which is this floating pool of independents/central voters that the Democrats need to defeat Trump. It's not guaranteed that the majority of the somewhat disapprove will automatically vote for the Democratic candidate. It will very much depend on who the Democratic nominee is. They are not in a rush to toss out Trump just because he is Trump because, they only "somewhat disapprove." If Trump keeps his full 43% approving voters and captures slightly more than half that somewhat disapprove bloc, which is well within the realm of possibility, he will win re-election. And I suspect that is what will happen, especially if Bernie is the nominee. [/quote]
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