CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

[Anonymous]

(Source for Italy shutting down almost all stores)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/conte-says-italy-will-remain-open-only-for-essential-services

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Out of curiosity, I pulled up the infection and death totals for H1N1 today. I was astonished to see how high they were. I don’t remember paying really any attention to that as a news story back in 2009. Was it covered less, somehow less scary, or am I just getting old and less cavalier?

It didn't spread as far. I remember feeling the same in the beginnings of the outbreak as for this coronavirus -- but it didn't get as far and so petered out.

And where exactly is your official source that ”It didn't spread as far” ??? Give an official cdc.gov or who.int source. Don’t spread misinformation!

Sorry, you are right, I should have been more precise. I should have said that it didn't kill as many people as early as this (in my head was thinking that the scare didn't spread as far, not necessarily the disease). Source talking about relative mortality rates:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-compared-to-sars-swine-flu-mers-zika-2020-3

Related excerpt:

"The coronavirus outbreak is more severe than the 2009 outbreak of H1N1, or swine flu. That illness infected between 700 million and 1.4 billion people worldwide but only had a mortality rate of 0.02%."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This may or may not be helpful but the # of cases in the USA is proportionally similar to the # cases in Canada, where widespread testing is occurring. About 4000 people have been tested in Ontario and around 3000 people have been tested in BC.

In Ontario, only 1% of people tested are positive so far (they are still waiting on 400 tests).
https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus

Ontario lab can test 1000 samples per day, and turnaround time has been reduced to 6 h.At-home testing for the virus will now be made available.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provinces-start-offering-in-home-testing-for-novel-coronavirus/

The US has roughly 10x the population in Canada.
There are 99 cases of coronavirus infection in Canada and 1016 cases in the US. So there are about 10 X the number of cases in US compared to Canada, which would be expected.

The only difference right now is proportion of deaths - 1 person has died in Canada (1%) while 31 have died in the US (3%). The fatality in Canada was a gentleman in a nursing home in BC. That either says something about the proportion of high risk individuals as cases in Canada versus USA - more high risk people in USA cases, or what stage people are being detected as being positive and/or how quickly they receive treatment.

But how do we know that's true if we're not testing?

The number of cases detected so far, with a test, in the USA is about 10 the # in Canada, which IS doing testing. Since the US population is also roughly 10 the population in Canada, you would expect 10 x the number of cases.
Note: 99% of the tests being done in Canada are negative, ie no coronavirus infection.

All I’m saying is the situation in the US may not be as dire as you think if you do the math. But, this is NOT to say that testing shouldn’t be done! Please don’t freak out, internet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OMG Breitbart. Talk about looking on the bright side! "Over 1,000 People Cured of Coronavirus in Italy"

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/03/11/over-1000-cured-coronavirus-italy/

Oh. My. Goodness. Wow. Meanwhile they are closing all stores except food markets and pharmacies...

The article is good and it looks like forced social distancing is working

Italians are very social so would not listen to authorities.

[Anonymous]

NY Times article says the first confirmed case in Seattle was late January—which means it’s safe to assume there were others walking around/traveling with it at that time or even sooner.

That’s long before anyone really thought it was here. And way before testing. Heck, we still aren’t testing.

So why don’t people believe it’s been here since then and has been spreading?

I think all the people presenting with flu symptoms who are testing negative for flu likely have or had corona. I know so many adults and kids who have been ill with flu symptoms but tested negative.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This may or may not be helpful but the # of cases in the USA is proportionally similar to the # cases in Canada, where widespread testing is occurring. About 4000 people have been tested in Ontario and around 3000 people have been tested in BC.

In Ontario, only 1% of people tested are positive so far (they are still waiting on 400 tests).
https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus

Ontario lab can test 1000 samples per day, and turnaround time has been reduced to 6 h.At-home testing for the virus will now be made available.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provinces-start-offering-in-home-testing-for-novel-coronavirus/

The US has roughly 10x the population in Canada.
There are 99 cases of coronavirus infection in Canada and 1016 cases in the US. So there are about 10 X the number of cases in US compared to Canada, which would be expected.

The only difference right now is proportion of deaths - 1 person has died in Canada (1%) while 31 have died in the US (3%). The fatality in Canada was a gentleman in a nursing home in BC. That either says something about the proportion of high risk individuals as cases in Canada versus USA - more high risk people in USA cases, or what stage people are being detected as being positive and/or how quickly they receive treatment.

But how do we know that's true if we're not testing?

The number of cases detected so far, with a test, in the USA is about 10 the # in Canada, which IS doing testing. Since the US population is also roughly 10 the population in Canada, you would expect 10 x the number of cases.
Note: 99% of the tests being done in Canada are negative, ie no coronavirus infection.

All I’m saying is the situation in the US may not be as dire as you think if you do the math. But, this is NOT to say that testing shouldn’t be done! Please don’t freak out, internet.

I want to point out that most of the US deaths are from one nursing home that got slammed hard and early. I think its 22 out of the 31 total deaths in the US are just that one home. If you consider it an outlier, then the US deaths are 9 with 1000+ positive. Which sort of makes it similar to Canada.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:NY Times article says the first confirmed case in Seattle was late January—which means it’s safe to assume there were others walking around/traveling with it at that time or even sooner.

That’s long before anyone really thought it was here. And way before testing. Heck, we still aren’t testing.

So why don’t people believe it’s been here since then and has been spreading?

I think all the people presenting with flu symptoms who are testing negative for flu likely have or had corona. I know so many adults and kids who have been ill with flu symptoms but tested negative.

Another thread commented it's amazing that with all the big American chinatowns and Chinese American communities and close ties, both family and business, to China, its amazing we haven't had any positive cases pop up in the US chinatowns, either in NYC or Los Angeles. Those are huge communities. Wuhan didn't go into lockdown for a while and the virus is supposed to spread so easily.

I'm fully confident it's been around the US for longer than thought. Which is very encouraging in it's own way.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This may or may not be helpful but the # of cases in the USA is proportionally similar to the # cases in Canada, where widespread testing is occurring. About 4000 people have been tested in Ontario and around 3000 people have been tested in BC.

In Ontario, only 1% of people tested are positive so far (they are still waiting on 400 tests).
https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus

Ontario lab can test 1000 samples per day, and turnaround time has been reduced to 6 h.At-home testing for the virus will now be made available.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provinces-start-offering-in-home-testing-for-novel-coronavirus/

The US has roughly 10x the population in Canada.
There are 99 cases of coronavirus infection in Canada and 1016 cases in the US. So there are about 10 X the number of cases in US compared to Canada, which would be expected.

The only difference right now is proportion of deaths - 1 person has died in Canada (1%) while 31 have died in the US (3%). The fatality in Canada was a gentleman in a nursing home in BC. That either says something about the proportion of high risk individuals as cases in Canada versus USA - more high risk people in USA cases, or what stage people are being detected as being positive and/or how quickly they receive treatment.

But how do we know that's true if we're not testing?

The number of cases detected so far, with a test, in the USA is about 10 the # in Canada, which IS doing testing. Since the US population is also roughly 10 the population in Canada, you would expect 10 x the number of cases.
Note: 99% of the tests being done in Canada are negative, ie no coronavirus infection.

All I’m saying is the situation in the US may not be as dire as you think if you do the math. But, this is NOT to say that testing shouldn’t be done! Please don’t freak out, internet.

I want to point out that most of the US deaths are from one nursing home that got slammed hard and early. I think its 22 out of the 31 total deaths in the US are just that one home. If you consider it an outlier, then the US deaths are 9 with 1000+ positive. Which sort of makes it similar to Canada.

Why would you consider it an outlier? The epidemic in Wuhan also hit nursing homes early.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NY Times article says the first confirmed case in Seattle was late January—which means it’s safe to assume there were others walking around/traveling with it at that time or even sooner.

That’s long before anyone really thought it was here. And way before testing. Heck, we still aren’t testing.

So why don’t people believe it’s been here since then and has been spreading?

I think all the people presenting with flu symptoms who are testing negative for flu likely have or had corona. I know so many adults and kids who have been ill with flu symptoms but tested negative.

Another thread commented it's amazing that with all the big American chinatowns and Chinese American communities and close ties, both family and business, to China, its amazing we haven't had any positive cases pop up in the US chinatowns, either in NYC or Los Angeles. Those are huge communities. Wuhan didn't go into lockdown for a while and the virus is supposed to spread so easily.

I'm fully confident it's been around the US for longer than thought. Which is very encouraging in it's own way.

But we haven’t been testing. We have no idea how many cases there are and how bad it will get. I agree though, I find it slightly comforting that we haven’t seen the severe respiratory illness numbers that you would expect if it has been around that long.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This may or may not be helpful but the # of cases in the USA is proportionally similar to the # cases in Canada, where widespread testing is occurring. About 4000 people have been tested in Ontario and around 3000 people have been tested in BC.

In Ontario, only 1% of people tested are positive so far (they are still waiting on 400 tests).
https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus

Ontario lab can test 1000 samples per day, and turnaround time has been reduced to 6 h.At-home testing for the virus will now be made available.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provinces-start-offering-in-home-testing-for-novel-coronavirus/

The US has roughly 10x the population in Canada.
There are 99 cases of coronavirus infection in Canada and 1016 cases in the US. So there are about 10 X the number of cases in US compared to Canada, which would be expected.

The only difference right now is proportion of deaths - 1 person has died in Canada (1%) while 31 have died in the US (3%). The fatality in Canada was a gentleman in a nursing home in BC. That either says something about the proportion of high risk individuals as cases in Canada versus USA - more high risk people in USA cases, or what stage people are being detected as being positive and/or how quickly they receive treatment.

But how do we know that's true if we're not testing?

The number of cases detected so far, with a test, in the USA is about 10 the # in Canada, which IS doing testing. Since the US population is also roughly 10 the population in Canada, you would expect 10 x the number of cases.
Note: 99% of the tests being done in Canada are negative, ie no coronavirus infection.

All I’m saying is the situation in the US may not be as dire as you think if you do the math. But, this is NOT to say that testing shouldn’t be done! Please don’t freak out, internet.

I want to point out that most of the US deaths are from one nursing home that got slammed hard and early. I think its 22 out of the 31 total deaths in the US are just that one home. If you consider it an outlier, then the US deaths are 9 with 1000+ positive. Which sort of makes it similar to Canada.

please report back when we get to 100,000 deaths.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NY Times article says the first confirmed case in Seattle was late January—which means it’s safe to assume there were others walking around/traveling with it at that time or even sooner.

That’s long before anyone really thought it was here. And way before testing. Heck, we still aren’t testing.

So why don’t people believe it’s been here since then and has been spreading?

I think all the people presenting with flu symptoms who are testing negative for flu likely have or had corona. I know so many adults and kids who have been ill with flu symptoms but tested negative.

Another thread commented it's amazing that with all the big American chinatowns and Chinese American communities and close ties, both family and business, to China, its amazing we haven't had any positive cases pop up in the US chinatowns, either in NYC or Los Angeles. Those are huge communities. Wuhan didn't go into lockdown for a while and the virus is supposed to spread so easily.

I'm fully confident it's been around the US for longer than thought. Which is very encouraging in it's own way.

I think a lot of Chinatowns have very few immigrants wealthy enough to travel to China or even second-Gen anymore. People own businesses there maybe, but they live in other neighborhoods for the schools. Those living there are often too poor (or undocumented) to travel to China for New Years.

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This may or may not be helpful but the # of cases in the USA is proportionally similar to the # cases in Canada, where widespread testing is occurring. About 4000 people have been tested in Ontario and around 3000 people have been tested in BC.

In Ontario, only 1% of people tested are positive so far (they are still waiting on 400 tests).
https://www.ontario.ca/page/2019-novel-coronavirus

Ontario lab can test 1000 samples per day, and turnaround time has been reduced to 6 h.At-home testing for the virus will now be made available.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-provinces-start-offering-in-home-testing-for-novel-coronavirus/

The US has roughly 10x the population in Canada.
There are 99 cases of coronavirus infection in Canada and 1016 cases in the US. So there are about 10 X the number of cases in US compared to Canada, which would be expected.

The only difference right now is proportion of deaths - 1 person has died in Canada (1%) while 31 have died in the US (3%). The fatality in Canada was a gentleman in a nursing home in BC. That either says something about the proportion of high risk individuals as cases in Canada versus USA - more high risk people in USA cases, or what stage people are being detected as being positive and/or how quickly they receive treatment.

But how do we know that's true if we're not testing?

The number of cases detected so far, with a test, in the USA is about 10 the # in Canada, which IS doing testing. Since the US population is also roughly 10 the population in Canada, you would expect 10 x the number of cases.
Note: 99% of the tests being done in Canada are negative, ie no coronavirus infection.

All I’m saying is the situation in the US may not be as dire as you think if you do the math. But, this is NOT to say that testing shouldn’t be done! Please don’t freak out, internet.

I want to point out that most of the US deaths are from one nursing home that got slammed hard and early. I think its 22 out of the 31 total deaths in the US are just that one home. If you consider it an outlier, then the US deaths are 9 with 1000+ positive. Which sort of makes it similar to Canada.

Why would you consider it an outlier? The epidemic in Wuhan also hit nursing homes early.

Because that kind of rapid spread with deaths within a community has not replicated itself. We have not had this kind of rapid spread through a nursing home elsewhere in the US, which is amazing when you think about it. Not even in Seattle. The other deaths are isolated deaths.

We now know the key is keeping the virus away from the elderly. And that is what is happening as we speak.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:NY Times article says the first confirmed case in Seattle was late January—which means it’s safe to assume there were others walking around/traveling with it at that time or even sooner.

That’s long before anyone really thought it was here. And way before testing. Heck, we still aren’t testing.

So why don’t people believe it’s been here since then and has been spreading?

I think all the people presenting with flu symptoms who are testing negative for flu likely have or had corona. I know so many adults and kids who have been ill with flu symptoms but tested negative.

Another thread commented it's amazing that with all the big American chinatowns and Chinese American communities and close ties, both family and business, to China, its amazing we haven't had any positive cases pop up in the US chinatowns, either in NYC or Los Angeles. Those are huge communities. Wuhan didn't go into lockdown for a while and the virus is supposed to spread so easily.

I'm fully confident it's been around the US for longer than thought. Which is very encouraging in it's own way.

Yes. Every time I think “there are probably a few thousand untested cases” I also remember “we’re not seeing the rather high percentage of complicated cases in hospitals. I realize I can’t have it both ways in my mind. So I’m still not sure whether we will be Italy or S Korea

[Anonymous]

Anyone know why CDC hasnt done any tests since 3/6 and the public labs only ran 8 tests yesterday?
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html