The Bike Lobby is too powerful in DC...

[Anonymous]

You realize that other than the 1968 riots, there has never been a time when DC real estate has LOST value.

Except early 1990s and 2008-9 had big declines.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You realize that other than the 1968 riots, there has never been a time when DC real estate has LOST value.

Except early 1990s and 2008-9 had big declines.
Except, except, except.

From about 1979 to 1986, home prices declined. From 1990 to 1998 home prices in DC did not increase on nominal basis, which means that they declined in real terms. And from peak to trough in 2008, home prices declined by a third.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDXRSA

It’s just never happened except for all the times in recent history that it did.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

Oh, great, the "worship my tax money" people are here. Get over yourselves. I'm not groveling for your pittance.

Commercial real estate (and residential too) can come down in price. At some point others will move in and fill the gap. In fact, we could use some lower costs here.

You use insults to compensate for your inadequacy. Im sorry you’re innumerate. Let me make it more simple. Even before a recession was forecast, the DC CFO projected declining revenue from real property tax through 2024. The only thing buttressing revenue projections was super optimistic projected income tax withholding.

I perfectly understand the rationale behind wanting to keep people out of your city. It’s a natural NIMBY instinct. However, in practice what that means is that you are forefeiting the dynamism and vibrancy that is what urbanism is supposed to bring. The next result is that you’ll have your bike lanes, but your city - the economic life - which is the sole rationale for agglomeration is moving to the suburbs that are rapidly urbanizing around a transportation strategy of cars and public transit. While you, on the other hand, are trying to turn a city until the suburban cul-de-sac that you grew up on. Have fun with that.

There will always be people who want to live here. And some more of those who do, but can't afford it now, would be able to. At the expense of self-important a-holes like you. Bye.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

There will be no significant office conversions in downtown DC for many reasons. But a big one is because the PP was wrong about vacancy rates. Class A has the highest vacancy rate at 15% and rising while Class C has the lowest at 5%. This is because asking rents for Class A have not decreased despite decreasing demand for commercial office space while asking rents for Class C have declined to match market conditions. There are not enough law firms willing to pay Class A asking rents and Class A landlords have limited ability to decrease rents due to financing. Most of the Class A leasing activity you are seeing is tenants moving from older Class A buildings to brand new construction. GSA is also continuing to lease space in the suburbs while giving up space in DC, so even the number of government jobs in DC are declining with a preference for more car friendly suburbs. The future of downtown DC is a lot of half empty glass buildings. Perhaps even an “zombie hellscape” as you like to call it. Enjoy that on your bike ride in your protected bike lane.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

Oh, great, the "worship my tax money" people are here. Get over yourselves. I'm not groveling for your pittance.

Commercial real estate (and residential too) can come down in price. At some point others will move in and fill the gap. In fact, we could use some lower costs here.

You use insults to compensate for your inadequacy. Im sorry you’re innumerate. Let me make it more simple. Even before a recession was forecast, the DC CFO projected declining revenue from real property tax through 2024. The only thing buttressing revenue projections was super optimistic projected income tax withholding.

I perfectly understand the rationale behind wanting to keep people out of your city. It’s a natural NIMBY instinct. However, in practice what that means is that you are forefeiting the dynamism and vibrancy that is what urbanism is supposed to bring. The next result is that you’ll have your bike lanes, but your city - the economic life - which is the sole rationale for agglomeration is moving to the suburbs that are rapidly urbanizing around a transportation strategy of cars and public transit. While you, on the other hand, are trying to turn a city until the suburban cul-de-sac that you grew up on. Have fun with that.

There will always be people who want to live here. And some more of those who do, but can't afford it now, would be able to. At the expense of self-important a-holes like you. Bye.

And the UK government up until this week thought that there was unlimited demand for their debt. It’s incredible that you can write something like this knowing that population declined by 18,000 residents over the past 2 years. To paraphrase Hemingway, you go bankrupt at first gradually and then all at once.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

You realize that other than the 1968 riots, there has never been a time when DC real estate has LOST value.

Except early 1990s and 2008-9 had big declines.
Except, except, except.

From about 1979 to 1986, home prices declined. From 1990 to 1998 home prices in DC did not increase on nominal basis, which means that they declined in real terms. And from peak to trough in 2008, home prices declined by a third.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WDXRSA

It’s just never happened except for all the times in recent history that it did.

At worst, they stayed flat. I am not talking about "the DC area" I am referring to actual DC, the 68 square miles.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

First of all, there's no "us" or "we." There's "you." Nothing points to a shaky argument or insecure author more than the artificial or ambiguous use of a plural pronoun to suggest a chorus of voices when in fact it's the voice or opinion of an individual.

Second, "where they work" is increasingly going to be in Virginia (or, to a lesser extent, Maryland) and not in the District. Public and private jobs are slowly but steadily bleeding out of the city and new job growth/job creation is much more robust in the suburbs. DC is on a track to rely more and more on property taxes to fund its services. As the property tax burden increases, the city becomes a more expensive and less attractive place to live, more people leave, and the cycle gets progressively worse and worse. Elevated crime rates only help accelerate this trend.

The DC government should be focused on how it can more effectively compete with its neighbors for jobs (either keeping existing jobs in the city or incentivizing new jobs) instead of pushing policies that make DC less attractive to employers, including the federal government.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

There will be no significant office conversions in downtown DC for many reasons. But a big one is because the PP was wrong about vacancy rates. Class A has the highest vacancy rate at 15% and rising while Class C has the lowest at 5%. This is because asking rents for Class A have not decreased despite decreasing demand for commercial office space while asking rents for Class C have declined to match market conditions. There are not enough law firms willing to pay Class A asking rents and Class A landlords have limited ability to decrease rents due to financing. Most of the Class A leasing activity you are seeing is tenants moving from older Class A buildings to brand new construction. GSA is also continuing to lease space in the suburbs while giving up space in DC, so even the number of government jobs in DC are declining with a preference for more car friendly suburbs. The future of downtown DC is a lot of half empty glass buildings. Perhaps even an “zombie hellscape” as you like to call it. Enjoy that on your bike ride in your protected bike lane.

I don't think this has anything to do with bike lanes, and everything to do with the pandemic and the failure to create affordable housing and regional transit. I mean, MARC barely goes anywhere in MD. Imagine if there were MARC lines connecting more of Howard County and Carroll County and Anne Arrundel to DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

First of all, there's no "us" or "we." There's "you." Nothing points to a shaky argument or insecure author more than the artificial or ambiguous use of a plural pronoun to suggest a chorus of voices when in fact it's the voice or opinion of an individual.

Second, "where they work" is increasingly going to be in Virginia (or, to a lesser extent, Maryland) and not in the District. Public and private jobs are slowly but steadily bleeding out of the city and new job growth/job creation is much more robust in the suburbs. DC is on a track to rely more and more on property taxes to fund its services. As the property tax burden increases, the city becomes a more expensive and less attractive place to live, more people leave, and the cycle gets progressively worse and worse. Elevated crime rates only help accelerate this trend.

The DC government should be focused on how it can more effectively compete with its neighbors for jobs (either keeping existing jobs in the city or incentivizing new jobs) instead of pushing policies that make DC less attractive to employers, including the federal government.

My federal commercial office (housing 4 agencies) has a GIANT parking garage where everyone can park. Everyone drives in despite there being a metro and train stop right there. I don't think protected bike lanes have any impact whatsoever on that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

First of all, there's no "us" or "we." There's "you." Nothing points to a shaky argument or insecure author more than the artificial or ambiguous use of a plural pronoun to suggest a chorus of voices when in fact it's the voice or opinion of an individual.

Second, "where they work" is increasingly going to be in Virginia (or, to a lesser extent, Maryland) and not in the District. Public and private jobs are slowly but steadily bleeding out of the city and new job growth/job creation is much more robust in the suburbs. DC is on a track to rely more and more on property taxes to fund its services. As the property tax burden increases, the city becomes a more expensive and less attractive place to live, more people leave, and the cycle gets progressively worse and worse. Elevated crime rates only help accelerate this trend.

The DC government should be focused on how it can more effectively compete with its neighbors for jobs (either keeping existing jobs in the city or incentivizing new jobs) instead of pushing policies that make DC less attractive to employers, including the federal government.

What they are positioning themselves for to is be a bedroom community for jobs in NOVA. Effectively the city is suburbanizing itself. I’m not sure it’s going to work, except for a small number of neighborhoods. The future is basically Montgomery County’s present - with some enhanced amenities (walkable neighborhoods) and worse amenities (smaller living spaces, bad schools, fewer recreation opportunities).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

First of all, there's no "us" or "we." There's "you." Nothing points to a shaky argument or insecure author more than the artificial or ambiguous use of a plural pronoun to suggest a chorus of voices when in fact it's the voice or opinion of an individual.

Second, "where they work" is increasingly going to be in Virginia (or, to a lesser extent, Maryland) and not in the District. Public and private jobs are slowly but steadily bleeding out of the city and new job growth/job creation is much more robust in the suburbs. DC is on a track to rely more and more on property taxes to fund its services. As the property tax burden increases, the city becomes a more expensive and less attractive place to live, more people leave, and the cycle gets progressively worse and worse. Elevated crime rates only help accelerate this trend.

The DC government should be focused on how it can more effectively compete with its neighbors for jobs (either keeping existing jobs in the city or incentivizing new jobs) instead of pushing policies that make DC less attractive to employers, including the federal government.

My federal commercial office (housing 4 agencies) has a GIANT parking garage where everyone can park. Everyone drives in despite there being a metro and train stop right there. I don't think protected bike lanes have any impact whatsoever on that.

Is this in DC or the suburbs?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

There will be no significant office conversions in downtown DC for many reasons. But a big one is because the PP was wrong about vacancy rates. Class A has the highest vacancy rate at 15% and rising while Class C has the lowest at 5%. This is because asking rents for Class A have not decreased despite decreasing demand for commercial office space while asking rents for Class C have declined to match market conditions. There are not enough law firms willing to pay Class A asking rents and Class A landlords have limited ability to decrease rents due to financing. Most of the Class A leasing activity you are seeing is tenants moving from older Class A buildings to brand new construction. GSA is also continuing to lease space in the suburbs while giving up space in DC, so even the number of government jobs in DC are declining with a preference for more car friendly suburbs. The future of downtown DC is a lot of half empty glass buildings. Perhaps even an “zombie hellscape” as you like to call it. Enjoy that on your bike ride in your protected bike lane.

All of the demand for Class C basically comes from GSA which creates a sort of interesting Catch-22 for office conversions. If GSA gives up those leases, then the Class C buildings - which would be the most likely for residential conversion - will become available. However, if the jobs move out to the suburbs then what’s the business case?

And bringing this back to bike lanes, how do folks plan to live in DC and bike to their Fed job in Springfield?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

There will be no significant office conversions in downtown DC for many reasons. But a big one is because the PP was wrong about vacancy rates. Class A has the highest vacancy rate at 15% and rising while Class C has the lowest at 5%. This is because asking rents for Class A have not decreased despite decreasing demand for commercial office space while asking rents for Class C have declined to match market conditions. There are not enough law firms willing to pay Class A asking rents and Class A landlords have limited ability to decrease rents due to financing. Most of the Class A leasing activity you are seeing is tenants moving from older Class A buildings to brand new construction. GSA is also continuing to lease space in the suburbs while giving up space in DC, so even the number of government jobs in DC are declining with a preference for more car friendly suburbs. The future of downtown DC is a lot of half empty glass buildings. Perhaps even an “zombie hellscape” as you like to call it. Enjoy that on your bike ride in your protected bike lane.

All of the demand for Class C basically comes from GSA which creates a sort of interesting Catch-22 for office conversions. If GSA gives up those leases, then the Class C buildings - which would be the most likely for residential conversion - will become available. However, if the jobs move out to the suburbs then what’s the business case?

And bringing this back to bike lanes, how do folks plan to live in DC and bike to their Fed job in Springfield?

[Anonymous]

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Anonymous wrote:I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.

Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.

So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.

In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August.

Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market.

How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer.

But have fun in your bike lane!

The extended vacancies in commercial office space are a good thing if they translate into conversions into residential apartments. Maybe you take a particular fancy to CBDs like Dallas and Houston which are as empty as a zombie hell-scape after dark, but most of the rest of us appreciate the vibrancy associated with a CBD where people live. NOVA and Bethesda can have all the boutique consulting firms and defense contractors they want. We’re quite happy to trade them for people’s homes that allow them to live closer to where they work.

There will be no significant office conversions in downtown DC for many reasons. But a big one is because the PP was wrong about vacancy rates. Class A has the highest vacancy rate at 15% and rising while Class C has the lowest at 5%. This is because asking rents for Class A have not decreased despite decreasing demand for commercial office space while asking rents for Class C have declined to match market conditions. There are not enough law firms willing to pay Class A asking rents and Class A landlords have limited ability to decrease rents due to financing. Most of the Class A leasing activity you are seeing is tenants moving from older Class A buildings to brand new construction. GSA is also continuing to lease space in the suburbs while giving up space in DC, so even the number of government jobs in DC are declining with a preference for more car friendly suburbs. The future of downtown DC is a lot of half empty glass buildings. Perhaps even an “zombie hellscape” as you like to call it. Enjoy that on your bike ride in your protected bike lane.

All of the demand for Class C basically comes from GSA which creates a sort of interesting Catch-22 for office conversions. If GSA gives up those leases, then the Class C buildings - which would be the most likely for residential conversion - will become available. However, if the jobs move out to the suburbs then what’s the business case?

And bringing this back to bike lanes, how do folks plan to live in DC and bike to their Fed job in Springfield?

Exactly this. They won't. They'll move if they haven't moved already.