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Metropolitan DC Local Politics
Reply to "The Bike Lobby is too powerful in DC..."
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I say let DC do whatever it wants with bikes. It’s neither the region’s main population nor job center anymore.[/quote] Exactly. They are only accelerating the decline. Already losing population and commercial tax base. Accelerating anti-growth transportation policies in the face of that headwind is an interesting policy choice and I think the pace at which they are trying to do this makes clear that the proponents know these changes will not stand up to the test of time.[/quote] So the contention that the people who are buying up 7 figure properties now are going to be financial losers. Got it.[/quote] In finance parlance, they are called “bag holders”. Rising rates will continue to have a drag on valuations, which has already started with average sales price declines from July to August. Just wait for the next DC budget. CRE is taxed at 2x residential and contributes 20% of DC revenue. However, CRE tax is based on valuations from revenue generation and the CRE vacancy rate for < Class A is rising quickly and overall office occupancy across the whole region has plateaued at 47% pre-COVID, with suburban office space, particularly in Bethesda and NOVA having substantially lower vacancy than DC. Effectively the only tenants saving the DC office market right now are law firms. CRE owners are very active in challenging valuations, which means that the tax they pay is effectively mark-to-market. How do you think DC is going to make up the revenue shortfall? Increasing income withholding or residential property taxes at this time will lead to further erosion of the tax base, which has started with the two consecutive years of population decline that are expected to continue through 2022 and perhaps longer. But have fun in your bike lane![/quote] Oh, great, the "worship my tax money" people are here. Get over yourselves. I'm not groveling for your pittance. Commercial real estate (and residential too) can come down in price. At some point others will move in and fill the gap. In fact, we could use some lower costs here.[/quote] You use insults to compensate for your inadequacy. Im sorry you’re innumerate. Let me make it more simple. Even before a recession was forecast, the DC CFO projected declining revenue from real property tax through 2024. The only thing buttressing revenue projections was super optimistic projected income tax withholding. I perfectly understand the rationale behind wanting to keep people out of your city. It’s a natural NIMBY instinct. However, in practice what that means is that you are forefeiting the dynamism and vibrancy that is what urbanism is supposed to bring. The next result is that you’ll have your bike lanes, but your city - the economic life - which is the sole rationale for agglomeration is moving to the suburbs that are rapidly urbanizing around a transportation strategy of cars and public transit. While you, on the other hand, are trying to turn a city until the suburban cul-de-sac that you grew up on. Have fun with that. [/quote] There will always be people who want to live here. And some more of those who do, but can't afford it now, would be able to. At the expense of self-important a-holes like you. Bye.[/quote] And the UK government up until this week thought that there was unlimited demand for their debt. It’s incredible that you can write something like this knowing that population declined by 18,000 residents over the past 2 years. To paraphrase Hemingway, you go bankrupt at first gradually and then all at once. [/quote]
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