CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

[Anonymous]

This is a chart with cases in Wuhan versus availability of ICU beds.

The X axis is number of days from community outbreak, with outbreak estimated in Wuhan to have started in early December. about 45 days after the start of a few cases is when the need for a lot of ICUs occurred.

Remember patients needed the ICU beds for several weeks.

More here:

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1237347774951305216

[Anonymous]

Is anybody tracking the rate of hospitalization/deaths from the flu v coronavirus?

[Anonymous]

We are barely testing for COVID. We can't really say in the US how many cases we have.

But if community spread started a month to 6 weeks ago in the use -- we are already at 28-42 days after community transmission in many areas in the US. So we are right at the start of the graph of severe cases I posted above for Wuhan.

That's why experts are saying everything is about to explode in the next two weeks.... wherever there's been community spread.

[Anonymous]

An idea of how bad it is in Iran: Nearly half of the 165 citizens Bahrain evacuated today from Iran are infected with coronavirus.

This was the first of several repatriation flights Bahrain is arranging for its citizens in Iran. 77 of the 165 Bahrainis on the first flight were found to be infected.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk/index.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are barely testing for COVID. We can't really say in the US how many cases we have.

But if community spread started a month to 6 weeks ago in the use -- we are already at 28-42 days after community transmission in many areas in the US. So we are right at the start of the graph of severe cases I posted above for Wuhan.

That's why experts are saying everything is about to explode in the next two weeks.... wherever there's been community spread.

But we have no tests! How will we know

[Anonymous]

“It's fair to say that, as the trajectory of the outbreak continues, many people in the United States will at some point in time, either this year or next, be exposed to this virus and there's a good chance many will become sick," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said earlier this week.


“This seems to be a disease that affects adults and most seriously older adults," Messonnier said. "Starting at age 60, there is an increasing risk of disease and the risk increases with age." 

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are barely testing for COVID. We can't really say in the US how many cases we have.

But if community spread started a month to 6 weeks ago in the use -- we are already at 28-42 days after community transmission in many areas in the US. So we are right at the start of the graph of severe cases I posted above for Wuhan.

That's why experts are saying everything is about to explode in the next two weeks.... wherever there's been community spread.

But we have no tests! How will we know

Without tests, we will only know when many severe cases at once occur and fill up our ICUs.

People complaining about hysteria and panic and the worried well filling our ERs are not focusing on the real bottleneck- the severe cases.

Don’t be reassured by South Korea. They had explosive growth at first because of the cult members, many of whom were in their 20s. The severe cases are coming in as the virus expands and it’s hitting more people in their 40s and 50s. Obviously the people 60 and up will have even more severe cases. South Korea’s cases started slowing down but they just had over 200 new cases as the virus is it spreading to s they had explosive growth at first because of the cult members, many of whom were in their 20s. The severe cases are coming in as the virus expands and it’s hitting more people in their 40s and 50s. Obviously the people 60 and up will have even more severe cases. South Korea’s cases started slowing down but they just had over 200 new cases as the virus is it spreading to other cities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are barely testing for COVID. We can't really say in the US how many cases we have.

But if community spread started a month to 6 weeks ago in the use -- we are already at 28-42 days after community transmission in many areas in the US. So we are right at the start of the graph of severe cases I posted above for Wuhan.

That's why experts are saying everything is about to explode in the next two weeks.... wherever there's been community spread.

But we have no tests! How will we know

Tests have become much more widely available. Seattle opened its first drive through testing center. My dh’s academic medical center here had first day of testing in their parking lot yesterday. This is reflected in the cdc’s graph of tests given, which is updated daily. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html

[Anonymous]

"U.S. has about 2.8 beds per 1000 people. South Korea and Japan, two countries that have seemingly thwarted the exponential case growth trajectory, have more than 12 hospital beds per 1,000 people; even China has 4.3 per 1,000. [In the U.S.] With a population of 330 million, this is about 1 million hospital beds. At any given time, about 68% of them are occupied. That leaves about 300,000 beds available nationwide."

"But among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU."

[What follows is extrapolation based on supposition - the above is factually accurate and you can do with as you will]

"At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. And with many patients requiring weeks of care, turnover will slow to a crawl as beds fill with Covid-19 patients.

If I’m wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by six days (one doubling time) in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22."

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are barely testing for COVID. We can't really say in the US how many cases we have.

But if community spread started a month to 6 weeks ago in the use -- we are already at 28-42 days after community transmission in many areas in the US. So we are right at the start of the graph of severe cases I posted above for Wuhan.

That's why experts are saying everything is about to explode in the next two weeks.... wherever there's been community spread.

But we have no tests! How will we know

Tests have become much more widely available. Seattle opened its first drive through testing center. My dh’s academic medical center here had first day of testing in their parking lot yesterday. This is reflected in the cdc’s graph of tests given, which is updated daily. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html

Thanks for info! Great news US has started drive thru tests and parking lot tests!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are now seeing why it's bad to let a repressive communist country hold the keys to our health, i.e. medicines, etc. We are also seeing the risks of Chinese way of life. Before we didn't care because the nasty diseases only affected them - easy to go on with our lives and pretend it does not exist. Scream racism when anyone says "hmmmm, that's not good practice...".

For those who love a global economy, understand that gives rogue nations like China (and yes, they are rogue) the ability to grab us by the gonads and twist in situations like this.

Just like the repressive US administration refused to allow early testing and take steps to save American lives.

China did the right thing and slowed the spread of this virus, buying the world some time. Too bad the US wasted it.

[Anonymous]

Seriously, if you guys aren’t also reading the travel thread you should - everyone over there still wants to take their spring break trip!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seriously, if you guys aren’t also reading the travel thread you should - everyone over there still wants to take their spring break trip!

And on another thread people are getting called "sick" and "repulsive" for saying that things are going to get worse, because apparently it means that they *want* it to vs. they are scared of / preparing for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seriously, if you guys aren’t also reading the travel thread you should - everyone over there still wants to take their spring break trip!

So many idiots. The cavalier “it can’t touch me” is born out of entitlement and self-importance with zero regard for the well-being of others.

[Anonymous]

Denial is a form of panic just as much as over-preparing.