Wizards and Caps could be moving to Potomac Yard

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.

No one is paying to build affordable housing on a super fund site, especially one with arsenic in the soil.

Isn't there a housing development on a Superfund site in DC or MD? I wouldn't put it past the developers here, they are allowed to do whatever they want.

It's not a matter of being allowed to, it's how much it costs to mitigate the site. Not all superfund sites are created equal and Potomac yards happens to be one that is extremely expensive to mitigate. No developer is going to do it unless the they can make a profit and there is not enough money in public and low income housing to justify building there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

I would take Youngkin over a woman who makes money off selling THC to kids. Maybe Leonsis will give her a place a dispensary in the development?

And yet she's 10000x better than a misogynist who DGAF about the people in ALX/ARL.

He just wants to make a deal for his own benefit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

I would take Youngkin over a woman who makes money off selling THC to kids. Maybe Leonsis will give her a place a dispensary in the development?

And yet she's 10000x better than a misogynist who DGAF about the people in ALX/ARL.

He just wants to make a deal for his own benefit.

At least he isn’t selling drugs that cause psychosis to kids. How many people does he employ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

This is really helpful. I hope the Alexandria and Del Ray neighbors take note, because THEY are the taxpayers who will be on this hook for this, not Virginians, not Washingtonians nor Marylanders.

Oh I am sure the state will be kicking in some funds for infrastructure etc, they should also get some fed Highway dollars for other road, transpotation improvements.

Why? This is self-inflicted. And why should billionaire sports team owners get a free ride?

[Anonymous]

Does anyone think Youngkin is putting the screws to NoVa because we don't vote for him? I think he has gone on the offensive against us.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

I would take Youngkin over a woman who makes money off selling THC to kids. Maybe Leonsis will give her a place a dispensary in the development?

She’d be selling to adults. Last I checked, 21+ isn’t a kid

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

I would take Youngkin over a woman who makes money off selling THC to kids. Maybe Leonsis will give her a place a dispensary in the development?

She’d be selling to adults. Last I checked, 21+ isn’t a kid

Profit above anything else. https://www.fauquier.com/news/article_fe6b3202-8467-11ec-9428-ff2bc335001a.html

[Anonymous]

There is no planet where 30,000 jobs are created or moved to PY for this project.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.

No one is paying to build affordable housing on a super fund site, especially one with arsenic in the soil.

Isn't there a housing development on a Superfund site in DC or MD? I wouldn't put it past the developers here, they are allowed to do whatever they want.

Spring Valley was built on top of a WW I munitions dump, which includes poison shells.

[Anonymous]

The largest minority shareholder in Monumental Sports (Laurene Powell Jobs, Steve Jobs's widow) is looking to sell half her stake, which isn't something done by someone excited (or optimistic) about the move to Virginia:

https://www.sportico.com/business/team-sales/2024/laurene-powell-jobs-monumental-sale-1234762514/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

There is no planet where 30,000 jobs are created or moved to PY for this project.

Easy 30,000 jobs. Construction easily 15,000 over the life of the project. Then the people working the arena, then the stores/hotels -- and the building of those. For a project of this size 30,000 is a pretty normal number.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The largest minority shareholder in Monumental Sports (Laurene Powell Jobs, Steve Jobs's widow) is looking to sell half her stake, which isn't something done by someone excited (or optimistic) about the move to Virginia:

https://www.sportico.com/business/team-sales/2024/laurene-powell-jobs-monumental-sale-1234762514/

She is only selling half her stake -- not bailing -- if selling half it is done for reasons other than lack of excitment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

There is no planet where 30,000 jobs are created or moved to PY for this project.

Easy 30,000 jobs. Construction easily 15,000 over the life of the project. Then the people working the arena, then the stores/hotels -- and the building of those. For a project of this size 30,000 is a pretty normal number.

What makes you more qualified than a rando at the Washington Post?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

There is no planet where 30,000 jobs are created or moved to PY for this project.

Easy 30,000 jobs. Construction easily 15,000 over the life of the project. Then the people working the arena, then the stores/hotels -- and the building of those. For a project of this size 30,000 is a pretty normal number.

The only people who believe those numbers are economists paid to lie about economic impact

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Does anyone think Youngkin is putting the screws to NoVa because we don't vote for him? I think he has gone on the offensive against us.

He is a lame duck. Who cares?