Wizards and Caps could be moving to Potomac Yard

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

I heard the anti-arena Del Ray wine moms were searching the flood waters for Valentine’s Day Stanley cups.

On a serious note, how do these Alexandrians think affordable housing and failing schools are actually paid for? Do people in Del Ray really want to pay $25k a year in taxes for a duplex that floods? To me the arena seems like a great way to get taxpayers across the Commonwealth to cover many of the arena’s costs, when Alexandria will see a disproportionate amount of the revenue. If it’s not an arena it will just be more high rise affordable housing units that bring 800 kids into schools, make demands on public safety, and overflow the crumbling roads.

The Arena definitely seems like the good option.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

I heard the anti-arena Del Ray wine moms were searching the flood waters for Valentine’s Day Stanley cups.

On a serious note, how do these Alexandrians think affordable housing and failing schools are actually paid for? Do people in Del Ray really want to pay $25k a year in taxes for a duplex that floods? To me the arena seems like a great way to get taxpayers across the Commonwealth to cover many of the arena’s costs, when Alexandria will see a disproportionate amount of the revenue. If it’s not an arena it will just be more high rise affordable housing units that bring 800 kids into schools, make demands on public safety, and overflow the crumbling roads.

The Arena definitely seems like the good option.

The problem is the 2 billion dollars that the residents of Alexandria are liable for if ticket sales and concession sales are not sufficient to meet the obligation.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

I heard the anti-arena Del Ray wine moms were searching the flood waters for Valentine’s Day Stanley cups.

On a serious note, how do these Alexandrians think affordable housing and failing schools are actually paid for? Do people in Del Ray really want to pay $25k a year in taxes for a duplex that floods? To me the arena seems like a great way to get taxpayers across the Commonwealth to cover many of the arena’s costs, when Alexandria will see a disproportionate amount of the revenue. If it’s not an arena it will just be more high rise affordable housing units that bring 800 kids into schools, make demands on public safety, and overflow the crumbling roads.

The Arena definitely seems like the good option.

The problem is the 2 billion dollars that the residents of Alexandria are liable for if ticket sales and concession sales are not sufficient to meet the obligation.

Understandable, but then should the focus be on ensuring these are fair and realistic terms instead of whole cloth objection to the project? Having lived in the oppressive traffic of Miami, the cries of traffic just mean little to me (and I literally drive route 1 to W. Glebe every day to get home from work).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

I heard the anti-arena Del Ray wine moms were searching the flood waters for Valentine’s Day Stanley cups.

On a serious note, how do these Alexandrians think affordable housing and failing schools are actually paid for? Do people in Del Ray really want to pay $25k a year in taxes for a duplex that floods? To me the arena seems like a great way to get taxpayers across the Commonwealth to cover many of the arena’s costs, when Alexandria will see a disproportionate amount of the revenue. If it’s not an arena it will just be more high rise affordable housing units that bring 800 kids into schools, make demands on public safety, and overflow the crumbling roads.

The Arena definitely seems like the good option.

The problem is the 2 billion dollars that the residents of Alexandria are liable for if ticket sales and concession sales are not sufficient to meet the obligation.

Understandable, but then should the focus be on ensuring these are fair and realistic terms instead of whole cloth objection to the project? Having lived in the oppressive traffic of Miami, the cries of traffic just mean little to me (and I literally drive route 1 to W. Glebe every day to get home from work).

Route 1, as you seem to know, is already bad, right? Now add 12,000 cars between 5:30 and 6:45 on any game night and see how you fare.

[Anonymous]

Youngkin has to strike a deal with L Louise Lucas.

LOL He's out of his league

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

I heard the anti-arena Del Ray wine moms were searching the flood waters for Valentine’s Day Stanley cups.

On a serious note, how do these Alexandrians think affordable housing and failing schools are actually paid for? Do people in Del Ray really want to pay $25k a year in taxes for a duplex that floods? To me the arena seems like a great way to get taxpayers across the Commonwealth to cover many of the arena’s costs, when Alexandria will see a disproportionate amount of the revenue. If it’s not an arena it will just be more high rise affordable housing units that bring 800 kids into schools, make demands on public safety, and overflow the crumbling roads.

The Arena definitely seems like the good option.

The problem is the 2 billion dollars that the residents of Alexandria are liable for if ticket sales and concession sales are not sufficient to meet the obligation.

Understandable, but then should the focus be on ensuring these are fair and realistic terms instead of whole cloth objection to the project? Having lived in the oppressive traffic of Miami, the cries of traffic just mean little to me (and I literally drive route 1 to W. Glebe every day to get home from work).

Fair and reasonable projections means Leonsis has to put in more money which will not happen. Issuing bonds and then claiming revenue from the new venue will cover them based on rosy projections from economists who specialize in ridiculous stadium deals is stadium grifting 101. Anyone with a brain knows these deals never work out as advertised and that suburban deals end up the worst

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

This is really helpful. I hope the Alexandria and Del Ray neighbors take note, because THEY are the taxpayers who will be on this hook for this, not Virginians, not Washingtonians nor Marylanders.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Reported. The arena site and Target were washed away by the recent torrential rains.

I heard the anti-arena Del Ray wine moms were searching the flood waters for Valentine’s Day Stanley cups.

On a serious note, how do these Alexandrians think affordable housing and failing schools are actually paid for? Do people in Del Ray really want to pay $25k a year in taxes for a duplex that floods? To me the arena seems like a great way to get taxpayers across the Commonwealth to cover many of the arena’s costs, when Alexandria will see a disproportionate amount of the revenue. If it’s not an arena it will just be more high rise affordable housing units that bring 800 kids into schools, make demands on public safety, and overflow the crumbling roads.

The Arena definitely seems like the good option.

The problem is the 2 billion dollars that the residents of Alexandria are liable for if ticket sales and concession sales are not sufficient to meet the obligation.

Understandable, but then should the focus be on ensuring these are fair and realistic terms instead of whole cloth objection to the project? Having lived in the oppressive traffic of Miami, the cries of traffic just mean little to me (and I literally drive route 1 to W. Glebe every day to get home from work).

Route 1, as you seem to know, is already bad, right? Now add 12,000 cars between 5:30 and 6:45 on any game night and see how you fare.

Can someone point out a traffiic problem that has been fixed in the last 20 years in the DMV?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

This is really helpful. I hope the Alexandria and Del Ray neighbors take note, because THEY are the taxpayers who will be on this hook for this, not Virginians, not Washingtonians nor Marylanders.

Let's see. To the extent that this new PY arena actually produces the number of events a year, it will only be taking them away from the 2 arenas that Ted already owns in DC, plus Nats Park (BJ was terrific), plus Wolf Trap (JB's passing was a great loss), plus GMU Arena, plus others that I no doubt have missed, wherever in the DMV. The fact is that the DMV does not need another arena or music venue.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

This analysis does not account for the reality that something is going to go in that space, and something that does not increase residents that come with them a significant cost to schools, public safety, and infrastructure is the best option. The reason something will go in that space is because it is urban, prime real estate. Most likely it will not be commercial office space, and it is Alexandria, so I would bank on affordable/subsidized housing. I will take the Arena.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Alexandrian who can literally see the arena site from my TV room, who loves the Target, and who fully supports the arena in PY. It is a great deal for the City.

Interesting because every sports economist who has looked at this deal has said its absolutely terrible for the city. Talked to Roger Noll at Stanford last night, who got the JP Morgan report dog and pony show earlier on who said the financials have vastly overestimated the number of events they'll host by 30 or more events per year, which dramatically impacts revenue projections. They all have a problem with the IMPLAN model the City's non-economist consultants used. Apparently true economists no longer use this model and its primarily used by folks looking to push projects as its notorious for over estimating the economic impacts. There is a complete loss of property taxes from the deal...so $300-$400 million that Ted doesn't have to pay since it will be a publicly-owned complex. The useful life of arenas is also generally considered to be 20-25 years. This deal is for financing of 35 years. So we get the privilege of paying for the arena after its no longer considered serviceable. Roger also told us that no matter what level you look at these deals, even down to the neighborhood level, you cannot make a case for a public subsidy over 10-15%. They just do not move the economic needle. Every bit of the money they bring is just taking is from somewhere else and they don't drive enough business to justify the cost. Roger said an arena like this has the same economic impact on a community as a Macys or a WalMart. Not sure we need to be taking on $1.4 billion of debt and other public moneys to pay for a WalMart.

This analysis does not account for the reality that something is going to go in that space, and something that does not increase residents that come with them a significant cost to schools, public safety, and infrastructure is the best option. The reason something will go in that space is because it is urban, prime real estate. Most likely it will not be commercial office space, and it is Alexandria, so I would bank on affordable/subsidized housing. I will take the Arena.

LOL Youngkin vs Lucas chances of Youngkin winning this ..... Good luck with that.

And you sound lovely, not

[Anonymous]

Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Field of schemes is a great blog maintained by an economist who specializes in stadium deal. He tends to be more than a bit skeptical.

The Alexandria Economic Development Partnership revealed some new slides about the financing of the proposed $2 billion Washington Capitals and Wizards arena complex yesterday, and they are very clear-plastic-bindery indeed:
So according to that first slide, deploying a calculator to translate from percentages into actual dollar amounts, the $2 billion total cost would be repaid by:

$420 million in cash from the teams.
$420 million worth of future lease payments from the teams.
$100 million in cash from the city of Alexandria.
$460 million in kickbacks of taxes from the project.
$600 million in “private revenue streams,” which is presumably parking and naming rights, but the chart doesn’t say.
That would amount to just $560 million in taxpayer spending, which is a lot less than the $1.5 billion previously estimated. However, it leaves out some important pieces: $150-200 million in spending by the state of Virginia on transportation upgrades, plus around $380 million in property tax breaks, which would get the total subsidy comfortably back up over $1 billion.

Plus, of course, neither the pie chart nor that other Sankey diagram (which isn’t really used the way Sankeys should be, but it does look pretty) nor any of the rest of the presentation to yesterday’s town hall provides any indication of where the numbers came from, so they could all be just entirely made up. (It’s one of the many questions local residents asked at the town hall.) But here they are and we can’t unsee them now, so that’s some data viz money well-spent by the AEDC.

https://www.fieldofschemes.com/2024/01/09/20809/alexandria-releases-charts-showing-caps-wizards-arena-would-still-cost-public-1b-but-in-pretty-colors/

Yes but Alexandrians would rather pay taxes on a bad stadium deal than on affordable housing in that space. A stadium won't have as much traffic as apartment complexs and won't make ACPS even more embarrassing and sad than it already is.