FCPS HS Boundary

[Anonymous]

McDaniel also posted this on his Facebook page if anyone wants to provide comments there. https://www.facebook.com/share/pwZ8JRgQ8Qo2M6yH/?mibextid=WC7FNe

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Please reach out to the board to let them know your thoughts. At this point, it’ll only be community engagement that will stop this disaster.

Oh I did! I've emailed my rep twice and the entire school board got a long letter. We'll see if I hear anything meaningful back. I doubt it.

That's funny. I got an almost immediate (although mostly typical boilerplate) response when I told them how much I support their efforts on this redistricting plan. Use the school resources we have already paid for. Shorten the bus routes so they aren't always late and running double routes. Now if they could just get rid of all those split feeders that would be terrific. Between this and moving back the ridiculously early middle school start times I think this school board is off to a great start.

+1

Your schadenfreude is showing.
There is zero way they can undo the middle school start times without buses and bus drivers. They can’t get anyone to do that. This is why redistricting the schools right now is dumb. Staff will hate it too because they will have to move where the kids go and we can’t get enough teachers as it is.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly will be handled when Centreville is done. Those parents will probably be just as upset as some of the WSHS parents, but it will happen. They might even try and pull in a Westfield feeder - like Virginia Run. Thinking Poplar Tree and maybe Virginia Run.

Yeah this should be pretty interesting. I think CVHS is actually trending towards being only slightly over capacity by the time construction starts. Wonder if they should just shift the boundaries to send Chantilly kids to Herndon and skip making CVHS a mega school?

[Anonymous]

The boundary shifts are going to happen around the areas where schools are over crowded because those are the areas that need to be adjusted. A small percentage of the population is going to be affected and those parents are likely to be upset. Most families will stay at the same schools. The people complaining the most are the ones who are in the zones that are likely to be moved. It is understandable that they don’t want to move.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The boundary shifts are going to happen around the areas where schools are over crowded because those are the areas that need to be adjusted. A small percentage of the population is going to be affected and those parents are likely to be upset. Most families will stay at the same schools. The people complaining the most are the ones who are in the zones that are likely to be moved. It is understandable that they don’t want to move.

Interesting theory. Not sure what you think will happen to chantilly and centreville, but they can’t move students from them without a cascade effect throughout that whole region. Most families will stay at the same schools, but most pyramids will be impacted in one way or another.

When they talk bus times and efficient use of resources, the end goal has to be to look at capacity across Fairfax, because if they only go for the equity redistricting it’ll be challenged (successfully) in court.

It’s a bold claim to say that the changes will be minimal, when Robyn lady and Kyle McDaniel and SB keep saying holistic. (Also, don’t forget that they will likely need to look at AP/IB, language programs, and student transfers as part of this).

[Anonymous]

It seems the obvious first step is to not allow transfers to the overcrowded schools or send those kids back to their base schools.

SB doesn’t have to try to balance schools out for equity. The world is not equal. Instead maybe put in more supports in those schools. Lewis will never be Langley. Herndon won’t be Langley.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The boundary shifts are going to happen around the areas where schools are over crowded because those are the areas that need to be adjusted. A small percentage of the population is going to be affected and those parents are likely to be upset. Most families will stay at the same schools. The people complaining the most are the ones who are in the zones that are likely to be moved. It is understandable that they don’t want to move.

P.S. the board is changing the policy to redo this exercise at least every five years. So even if your school isn’t impacted this time, no guarantees.

In other words, until your last kid is a senior in high school, you are at risk of a redistricting.

Interesting theory. Not sure what you think will happen to chantilly and centreville, but they can’t move students from them without a cascade effect throughout that whole region. Most families will stay at the same schools, but most pyramids will be impacted in one way or another.

When they talk bus times and efficient use of resources, the end goal has to be to look at capacity across Fairfax, because if they only go for the equity redistricting it’ll be challenged (successfully) in court.

It’s a bold claim to say that the changes will be minimal, when Robyn lady and Kyle McDaniel and SB keep saying holistic. (Also, don’t forget that they will likely need to look at AP/IB, language programs, and student transfers as part of this).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the projections for WS? I thought while this current cohort of HS kids was large, the current ES cohort was smaller than typical.

You are correct.

Once the current class of 2026 graduates, all the subsequent classes go down in size significantly.

2026 is well over 700 students. 2025 and 2024 are in the mkd to upper 600s.

Every class after 2026 is in the low 600s.

WSHS will self correct without a boundary adjustment once 2026 graduates, based on all the numbers in the middle school and elementary classes zoned for WSHS.

However, there are many out of zone kids attending WSHS usiing other addresses.

WSHS needs to do a residency check before sny rezoning occurs.

The current numbers at Irving don’t align with this. Nice try.

j

Yes they do current 8th grade is 601 current 7th is 571

I don't know how the numbers work out exactly, but WSHS picks up students returning from LB AAP and parents who don't want to pay for private HS. So those Irving numbers don't reflect the numbers that will be in each grade at WSHS. You could compare those Irving numbers to the last ten years to get a better idea of the trend.

There aren’t very many of those kids. Most of them went to Irving. There are 3 classes of aap 7th graders this year. Most of my kids friends went to Irving. So maybe they will get to 600- but it isn’t 130 kids.

Then it might be worthwhile to FOIA how FCPS is coming up with that 2900 number if five years.

Where is the number posted? Can you link to where you found it? My guess is it was pre pandemic.

The numbers come from the most recent Capital Improvement Plan: https://www.fcps.edu/sites/default/files/media/pdf/Adopted-CIP-2025-29.pdf

Page 175 - West Springfield HS - 2925 students in SY28-29, 117% of capacity
Page 210 - Lewis HS - 1423 students in SY28-29, 74% of capacity

These are the official estimates, but I can't tell you if they are accurate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It seems the obvious first step is to not allow transfers to the overcrowded schools or send those kids back to their base schools.

SB doesn’t have to try to balance schools out for equity. The world is not equal. Instead maybe put in more supports in those schools. Lewis will never be Langley. Herndon won’t be Langley.

Obvious if the goal were to address capacity and operational efficiency, but we all know that’s not the goal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It seems the obvious first step is to not allow transfers to the overcrowded schools or send those kids back to their base schools.

SB doesn’t have to try to balance schools out for equity. The world is not equal. Instead maybe put in more supports in those schools. Lewis will never be Langley. Herndon won’t be Langley.

Obvious if the goal were to address capacity and operational efficiency, but we all know that’s not the goal.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the projections for WS? I thought while this current cohort of HS kids was large, the current ES cohort was smaller than typical.

You are correct.

Once the current class of 2026 graduates, all the subsequent classes go down in size significantly.

2026 is well over 700 students. 2025 and 2024 are in the mkd to upper 600s.

Every class after 2026 is in the low 600s.

WSHS will self correct without a boundary adjustment once 2026 graduates, based on all the numbers in the middle school and elementary classes zoned for WSHS.

However, there are many out of zone kids attending WSHS usiing other addresses.

WSHS needs to do a residency check before sny rezoning occurs.

The current numbers at Irving don’t align with this. Nice try.

j

Yes they do current 8th grade is 601 current 7th is 571

So let's parse this. The current enrollment at Irving (1217 as of the start of the 2023-24 school year) is the second-highest enrollment at Irving of any year since 2014-15. In addition to those students, there are 117 Irving kids who transferred out to other schools this year, including over 100 to Lake Braddock, and students who may attend West Springfield after attending K-8 parochial schools.

In comparison, Lewis is projected to have 1423 students by 2028-29. So even if West Springfield only had 2600 kids in 2028, rather than the 2925 students that FCPS is now projecting, there would still be a huge disparity between the two schools in terms of enrollment and opportunities. There's no other combination in FCPS of nearby high schools where the current and projected contrast in enrollment and opportunities is so glaring.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chantilly will be handled when Centreville is done. Those parents will probably be just as upset as some of the WSHS parents, but it will happen. They might even try and pull in a Westfield feeder - like Virginia Run. Thinking Poplar Tree and maybe Virginia Run.

Yeah this should be pretty interesting. I think CVHS is actually trending towards being only slightly over capacity by the time construction starts. Wonder if they should just shift the boundaries to send Chantilly kids to Herndon and skip making CVHS a mega school?

They seem well down the path of expanding Centreville to 3000.

No one is going to accept just moving Chantilly kids to Herndon. You have to go through the Westfield and/or South Lakes districts to get from the Chantilly area to Herndon.

Three things could happen at Chantilly. The could move part of Chantilly directly to Centreville, move part of Chantilly to Westfield and then move part of Westfield to Centreville, or expand Chantilly. They have an upcoming agenda item to approve some new labs and classrooms at Chantilly but I don't know how large a project that is. They sometimes use money from a separate budget to make improvements to some schools with pressing needs.

In Herndon's case, they've recently expanded the school but are now projecting a major drop in enrollment. So in order not to look like idiots, they may reassign some areas to Herndon. There are basically two options - either they move part of Westfield to Herndon or they move part of Langley to Herndon (after moving even more of McLean to Langley). Neither involves moving any part of Chantilly to Herndon.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the projections for WS? I thought while this current cohort of HS kids was large, the current ES cohort was smaller than typical.

You are correct.

Once the current class of 2026 graduates, all the subsequent classes go down in size significantly.

2026 is well over 700 students. 2025 and 2024 are in the mkd to upper 600s.

Every class after 2026 is in the low 600s.

WSHS will self correct without a boundary adjustment once 2026 graduates, based on all the numbers in the middle school and elementary classes zoned for WSHS.

However, there are many out of zone kids attending WSHS usiing other addresses.

WSHS needs to do a residency check before sny rezoning occurs.

The current numbers at Irving don’t align with this. Nice try.

j

Yes they do current 8th grade is 601 current 7th is 571

So let's parse this. The current enrollment at Irving (1217 as of the start of the 2023-24 school year) is the second-highest enrollment at Irving of any year since 2014-15. In addition to those students, there are 117 Irving kids who transferred out to other schools this year, including over 100 to Lake Braddock, and students who may attend West Springfield after attending K-8 parochial schools.

In comparison, Lewis is projected to have 1423 students by 2028-29. So even if West Springfield only had 2600 kids in 2028, rather than the 2925 students that FCPS is now projecting, there would still be a huge disparity between the two schools in terms of enrollment and opportunities. There's no other combination in FCPS of nearby high schools where the current and projected contrast in enrollment and opportunities is so glaring.

If Lewis’s enrollment is going to fall that much in a span of only ~5 years, the conversation FCPS needs to be having is not how to prop up its enrollment, but how best to shut it down and consolidate with the other nearby HS. Especially as Edison is walking distance on the same road.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the projections for WS? I thought while this current cohort of HS kids was large, the current ES cohort was smaller than typical.

You are correct.

Once the current class of 2026 graduates, all the subsequent classes go down in size significantly.

2026 is well over 700 students. 2025 and 2024 are in the mkd to upper 600s.

Every class after 2026 is in the low 600s.

WSHS will self correct without a boundary adjustment once 2026 graduates, based on all the numbers in the middle school and elementary classes zoned for WSHS.

However, there are many out of zone kids attending WSHS usiing other addresses.

WSHS needs to do a residency check before sny rezoning occurs.

The current numbers at Irving don’t align with this. Nice try.

j

Yes they do current 8th grade is 601 current 7th is 571

So let's parse this. The current enrollment at Irving (1217 as of the start of the 2023-24 school year) is the second-highest enrollment at Irving of any year since 2014-15. In addition to those students, there are 117 Irving kids who transferred out to other schools this year, including over 100 to Lake Braddock, and students who may attend West Springfield after attending K-8 parochial schools.

In comparison, Lewis is projected to have 1423 students by 2028-29. So even if West Springfield only had 2600 kids in 2028, rather than the 2925 students that FCPS is now projecting, there would still be a huge disparity between the two schools in terms of enrollment and opportunities. There's no other combination in FCPS of nearby high schools where the current and projected contrast in enrollment and opportunities is so glaring.

If you know the area at all, though, you'd know it's just not that simple to redraw Irving/WSHS boundaries. The boundary is not weirdly gerrymandered to keep kids out of Lewis. Except for that one neighborhood south of the parkway, the boundary makes sense. The neighborhoods closest to Lewis, that sort of northeast section, walks to Irving and is very close to West Springfield. Easily bikeable and walkable. I guess Daventry could go back to Key/Lewis and the area south of the parkway to either Lewis or South County. And maybe something on the west side to LBSS if they could absorb some more kids. Look, we are at WSHS/Irving but we aren't in a zone that would move, we are literally right in the middle of the boundary, so I'm not trying to plead my personal case. But the West Springfield boundary largely makes sense as is. There is just a lot of housing, a good amount of "affordable for the area" apartments and town houses. It's compact and all has the same mixed culture, government-type worker, military family, vibe. I think it would be a shame to mess it up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What are the projections for WS? I thought while this current cohort of HS kids was large, the current ES cohort was smaller than typical.

You are correct.

Once the current class of 2026 graduates, all the subsequent classes go down in size significantly.

2026 is well over 700 students. 2025 and 2024 are in the mkd to upper 600s.

Every class after 2026 is in the low 600s.

WSHS will self correct without a boundary adjustment once 2026 graduates, based on all the numbers in the middle school and elementary classes zoned for WSHS.

However, there are many out of zone kids attending WSHS usiing other addresses.

WSHS needs to do a residency check before sny rezoning occurs.

The current numbers at Irving don’t align with this. Nice try.

j

Yes they do current 8th grade is 601 current 7th is 571

So let's parse this. The current enrollment at Irving (1217 as of the start of the 2023-24 school year) is the second-highest enrollment at Irving of any year since 2014-15. In addition to those students, there are 117 Irving kids who transferred out to other schools this year, including over 100 to Lake Braddock, and students who may attend West Springfield after attending K-8 parochial schools.

In comparison, Lewis is projected to have 1423 students by 2028-29. So even if West Springfield only had 2600 kids in 2028, rather than the 2925 students that FCPS is now projecting, there would still be a huge disparity between the two schools in terms of enrollment and opportunities. There's no other combination in FCPS of nearby high schools where the current and projected contrast in enrollment and opportunities is so glaring.

I’d rather be at an overcapacity school. If you are angry stop the transfers out of Lewis, get kids from hayfield or Edison if they want to come. We dont’ want to be there.
Why doesn’t west Springfield have trailers like Woodson if the population growth is so out of control?